Talking-up Scotland

In the Herald yesterday, we were confronted with the above. You could read that headline two ways – ‘welcome to Scotland because you’ll be safer here’ or, as I suspect they meant, ‘welcome to Scotland because violence is us!’

The article opened with:

‘When Shabaz Ali opened his eyes, after fighting for his life in hospital for three days, he didn’t know where he was.  After his father answered his questions, Shabaz told him he had no future in Scotland. “We ran away from war in Syria, I do not want to die here. This country is not safe for me,” he said.’

On its own, it’s a tragic, highly regrettable incident but, crucially, as the Herald well knows, it’s not representative of Scotland at all. Scotland does have a racism problem. Every country has one. There is, however, clear evidence that Scotland has much less racially-motivated violence, per head of population, than the non-Scottish parts of the UK:

‘There were 3,349 [hate crime] charges reported [in Scotland] in 2016-17, 10 percent fewer than in 2015-16, and the lowest number reported since 2003-04.’

http://www.copfs.gov.uk/media-site-news-from-copfs/1559-hate-crime-in-scotland-2016-17-report-released

Remember these figures include anti-semitism (17), racism and attacks against English, East Europeans, catholics and presumably protestants too.

In England and Wales, however:

 ‘Hate crimes have rocketed by almost a third in the UK in the past year, with unprecedented spikes around the EU referendum and terror attacks recorded by police. New figures released by the Home Office confirm victims’ reports of a dramatic increase in incidents motivated by attackers’ hostility towards their race, nationality, religion or other factors. Data from police forces across England and Wales showed there were almost 80,400 hate crimes recorded in the 2016/17 financial year.’

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/hate-crimes-eu-referendum-spike-brexit-terror-attacks-police-home-office-europeans-xenophobia-a8004716.html

 

On 20^th of June 2018, I wrote:

‘New research suggests that more than 1 in 3 women in Scotland will be morbidly obese, that’s at least 100 pounds above their ideal weight, by 2035. The research presented today in Vienna at the European Congress on Obesity indicates that women who have been to university are likely to be more adversely affected than those who didn’t.’

From a report in Medical Express: ‘rates of morbid obesity in adults will reach 5% in Scotland (compared to 4% in 2015), 8% in England (2.9% in 2016), and 11% in Wales (3% in 2015) by 2035.’ So, 1 in 20 Scots are expected to be morbidly obese by 2035. Even if the percentage for Scottish women is higher than for men, 1 in 3 is highly improbable. There are three serious problems with this report. First, the error confusing obesity with morbid obesity thus failing to inform viewers in a manner promised in the BBC’s charter. Second, the failure to report on the key finding that morbid obesity, in Scotland, is expected to plateau at 5% while soaring past that figure elsewhere in the UK. Third, the failure to report on the explanation for the above trend. The researchers offered a clear, confident and simple explanation for the significantly slower growth in obesity in Scotland – Scottish Government policy initiatives and resource allocation. For example: ‘The government put a massive push on developing a route map for how we can actually combat this. They put together resources from the NHS that were proving to be effective. They did put a lot of work into it.’ The effectiveness of the above initiatives can be seen in this: ‘almost no 15-to-24-year-old males in Scotland are expected to fall within this category, compared to 6% of the same group in England.’

CAS-4940361-J4C08P: Good Morning Scotland

In the report on obesity, at 09:00, we heard nine, long, compound sentences yet no reference was made to key role played by Scottish Government policy initiatives and resource allocation as stated clearly by the university researchers. In the Independent newspaper report, for example, we were able to read that the researchers offered a clear, confident and simple explanation for the significantly slower growth in obesity in Scotland – Scottish Government policy initiatives and resource allocation. For example: ‘The government put a massive push on developing a route map for how we can actually combat this. They put together resources from the NHS that were proving to be effective. They did put a lot of work into it.’ Why was this omitted?

Today, I received a paper response from Fraser Steel of the Executive Complaints Unit.

He has accepted that on the mistaken use of the word ‘morbid’, there ‘was a failure to observe the BBC’s standards of due accuracy’ and he is ‘upholding this aspect of your complaint’ with publication on the complaints pages of bbc.co.uk but no corrected broadcast.

As for the matter of attributing credit to the Scottish Government’s initiatives, their (BBC) source was, it seems, only the abstract of the paper and this did not mention it. That relying only on an abstract might be a bit shoddy does not seem to occur. Also, he argues that Reevel Alderson saying that ‘Scotland was expected to far better’ was adequate to ‘reflect the relevant findings.’

I’ve run out of steam and will probably let it go now.

 

BBC Scotland on obesity: My complaint, their tiny grudging acceptance

On 20^th of June 2018, I wrote:

‘New research suggests that more than 1 in 3 women in Scotland will be morbidly obese, that’s at least 100 pounds above their ideal weight, by 2035. The research presented today in Vienna at the European Congress on Obesity indicates that women who have been to university are likely to be more adversely affected than those who didn’t.’

From a report in Medical Express: ‘rates of morbid obesity in adults will reach 5% in Scotland (compared to 4% in 2015), 8% in England (2.9% in 2016), and 11% in Wales (3% in 2015) by 2035.’ So, 1 in 20 Scots are expected to be morbidly obese by 2035. Even if the percentage for Scottish women is higher than for men, 1 in 3 is highly improbable. There are three serious problems with this report. First, the error confusing obesity with morbid obesity thus failing to inform viewers in a manner promised in the BBC’s charter. Second, the failure to report on the key finding that morbid obesity, in Scotland, is expected to plateau at 5% while soaring past that figure elsewhere in the UK. Third, the failure to report on the explanation for the above trend. The researchers offered a clear, confident and simple explanation for the significantly slower growth in obesity in Scotland – Scottish Government policy initiatives and resource allocation. For example: ‘The government put a massive push on developing a route map for how we can actually combat this. They put together resources from the NHS that were proving to be effective. They did put a lot of work into it.’ The effectiveness of the above initiatives can be seen in this: ‘almost no 15-to-24-year-old males in Scotland are expected to fall within this category, compared to 6% of the same group in England.’

CAS-4940361-J4C08P: Good Morning Scotland

In the report on obesity, at 09:00, we heard nine, long, compound sentences yet no reference was made to key role played by Scottish Government policy initiatives and resource allocation as stated clearly by the university researchers. In the Independent newspaper report, for example, we were able to read that the researchers offered a clear, confident and simple explanation for the significantly slower growth in obesity in Scotland – Scottish Government policy initiatives and resource allocation. For example: ‘The government put a massive push on developing a route map for how we can actually combat this. They put together resources from the NHS that were proving to be effective. They did put a lot of work into it.’ Why was this omitted?

Today, I received a paper response from Fraser Steel of the Executive Complaints Unit.

He has accepted that on the mistaken use of the word ‘morbid’, there ‘was a failure to observe the BBC’s standards of due accuracy’ and he is ‘upholding this aspect of your complaint’ with publication on the complaints pages of bbc.co.uk but no corrected broadcast.

As for the matter of attributing credit to the Scottish Government’s initiatives, their (BBC) source was, it seems, only the abstract of the paper and this did not mention it. That relying only on an abstract might be a bit shoddy does not seem to occur. Also, he argues that Reevel Alderson saying that ‘Scotland was expected to far better’ was adequate to ‘reflect the relevant findings.’

I’ve run out of steam and will probably let it go now.

 

In England and Wales, ‘high-harm’ violent offences involving weapons rose by 16%, in the year-ending March 2018. Homicides rose by 12% to 701 in the same period.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/19/knife-crime-up-16-per-cent-england-and-wales

In the same period, in Scotland, ‘serious assaults’ fell by 1.4% and homicides fell by 12.7% to only 55.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sexual-and-violent-crime-on-the-rise-in-scotland-1-4746192

I appreciate that ‘high-harm’ and ‘serious’ violence may not be strictly comparable, but the contrasting trends remain of interest.

This is, of course, part of a long-term trend of falling violence in Scotland in the period of SNP administration, where:

‘Crimes of handling of offensive weapons fell by more than two thirds over the last decade. There have been fewer convictions for handling offensive weapons and a fall in the number of emergency hospital admissions due to assault with a sharp object over the same period.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/decrease-in-offensive-weapons-crime

This fall in violent crime is also part of a wider pattern of improvement across Scottish society and in our policing of crime:

Why are prison officers staying in post in Scotland as they flee the tide of violence and self-harm in England and Wales?

Police Scotland, world experts on violence reduction, are now to advise The Met after helping the NYPD and Canada Police. Scotland’s media ignore the story in favour of anything negative they can find.

Less homicide, less knife crime, less domestic violence, safer cities and now much lower alcohol problems: should Scotland’s old stereotypes be sent south?

Reported domestic violence in Scotland falls. Is this part of wider change?

First New York Police and now Canada’s police come to learn from Scotland’s successes in tackling violence

As reported levels of violence against women soar in England and Wales they seem to be falling in Scotland. Will this be reported?

Police Scotland more than fifteen times better at clearing up robberies than English forces!

 

A survey produced by the Scottish Chambers network and the Fraser of Allander Institute, suggests further evidence of confidence in the Scottish economy. The key points were:

• Only 15% of firms across the sample reported declining optimism, suggesting resilient business confidence.
• 48% of firms reporting increased overall revenue, with only 18% reporting a decrease.
• 89% of firms have increased or maintained levels of investment relative to the previous quarter.
• Recruitment difficulties rising across sectors, in addition to the proportion of businesses seeking to increase wages.

As a lifetime wage-earner, I see the last one as good news.

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/scottish-business-resilient-recruitment-challenges-12942461

As always, here are the previous optimistic reports leading to this one today:

Scottish small businesses still more confident than those in non-Scottish parts

Business activity soars to four-year high across manufacturing and service

Business confidence in Scotland soars by 24% while it sinks 29% in non-Scottish parts of UK

Scottish businesses more likely to be stable than those in rest of UK: News from a parallel universe unknown to our mainstream media

Scottish Government supports economy with new business rates unique in UK

Scottish business confidence higher than in any other region of UK

Douglas Fraser will be saving these up for one big cheery special.

 

According to Insider today, based on Companies House and Office of national Statistics figures:

‘At the end of June, 50,143 companies were registered in the city according to research. The research, conducted by secretarial software specialists Inform Direct, shows that there were 22,931 in the city centre, 4,965 on Leith Walk and 4,323 in Leith. These positive figures back up recent reports highlighting the Scottish capital as one of Europe’s fastest growing communities of developers and data scientists, which is attracting new technology businesses. Other figures suggest that the city’s technology sector has increased more than three times the UK average between 2014 and 2017.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/edinburgh-home-50000-companies-first-12944714

Other recent positive news reinforcing optimism about the Edinburgh economy include:

Edinburgh best place for technology in UK?

Edinburgh poised to make significant advances in mental health research based upon data science ‘unparalleled in UK’.

‘Edinburgh tops list of most influential small cities in Europe’

‘Edinburgh among the best for equality’

Best UK city for inward investment is Edinburgh

More bad news for Ruth and Kezia: ‘Edinburgh is most active UK city for innovation outside London’

‘Staggering’ 175% increase in Edinburgh office take-up is further evidence of booming Scottish economy

Can Edinburgh’s high-tech expertise steal some of London’s financial business post-Brexit?

Footnote: Good though this is, it’s important that Edinburgh does not become a mini-London sucking all the resources out of the wider economy.

While the ONS figures today contain good news on employment in Scotland, our media have uniformly preferred to headline a tiny increase in unemployment. For Q2 or March-May 2018, employment remains at a near record level of 75.5% but unemployment has increased to just over 4%. Needless to say, that wee increase was more than enough to excite our ‘churnos’ on a bonus, to trumpet bad news about their own folk whenever they can, so we got:

People seeking work in Scotland up by 5,000 – BBC News – BBC.com

Jobless Scots on the rise while falling UK-wide – The Scotsman

Unemployment rises by 5,000 in Scotland | Local News – Clyde 1

Number of Scots unemployed rises slightly to 120,000 – STV

Strangely, they had not drawn on the wider analysis of the Fraser of Allander Institute, this time. You’ll see why below:

‘The latest data reinforce the recent trends of high employment and low unemployment in the Scottish economy. While recent increases in unemployment, up by 0.5%-points over the past year, provides a note of caution, it is important to remember that unemployment remains, by historical standards, at a low rate. Similarly, an employment rate of 75.5% represents a near record level of employment in Scotland. The data suggest that there has been something of a shift away from self-employment over the past year, with all the employment growth coming from people working as employees.’

https://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2018/07/slowing-wage-growth-points-to-interest-rate-rise-delay/

 

The Kantar sub-poll, two days ago, suggested a recovery by the SNP and decline by both Tories and Labour, but the numbers were too small (less than 100) to give confidence.

However, today’s Survation poll of more than 1 000 adults, for the Daily Record, gives greater confidence in the expected recovery by the SNP as Westminster staggers from one crisis to another. The results on voting intentions for Westminster are:

• SNP                        42%     up 5
• Conservatives      24%     down 5
• Labour                  23%     down 4

In terms of seats, this would give

• SNP                     49          up 14
• Conservatives     5          down 8
• Labour                1          down 6

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/labour-slip-backwards-scotland-snp-12908057

We can’t see when the data was collected but can be sure it was before Trump’s astonishing undermining of May’s Brexit plans and the chaotic presentation of the plans at Westminster. These events, subsequent EU rejection of much of the plan, further back-stabbing within the Tories and a failure by Labour to do anything, can only push SNP support toward overwhelming support in Scotland with a bonus in Davidson having to seek a seat south of the border.

Yes, from Insider again, today:

‘Edinburgh’s office market has enjoyed a strong second quarter after a slow start to the year, according to new figures. Office lettings between the first and second quarter rose 150 per cent to 351,916 sq ft, making just under half a million sq ft (491,885 sq ft) for the first six months of 2018.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/edinburgh-office-rentals-up-150-12893245

As always here, this news represents evidence of a longer and wider trend in a strengthening Scottish economy:

Edinburgh:

Edinburgh best place for technology in UK?

Edinburgh poised to make significant advances in mental health research based upon data science ‘unparalleled in UK’.

Glasgow and Edinburgh push London into third place in tourism hotspots survey

‘Edinburgh tops list of most influential small cities in Europe’

‘Edinburgh among the best for equality’

Value of top Edinburgh hotels grows significantly faster than rest of Europe

Best UK city for inward investment is Edinburgh

Massive increase in Chinese visitors to Edinburgh NOT attributed to weak pound and attracted by ‘Strongman skirt parties’

 

Glasgow:

More real economic strength revealed as demand for Glasgow office space increases dramatically

‘Glasgow named top convention spot for a record 12th year in a row’

Glasgow’s lower costs and supply of technology graduates tempting financial services firms away from London

One more indicator of economic well-being as Investment in Glasgow office property surges four-fold and Scotland ‘very much on the wish list’

Glasgow only UK city to make New York Times top ten cities to visit. Dundee makes CNN’s most design-savvy list with Tokyo and Paris

 

Dundee:

Is Dundee ‘punchin’? The only UK location in Lonely Planet’s top ten

Glasgow only UK city to make New York Times top ten cities to visit. Dundee makes CNN’s most design-savvy list with Tokyo and Paris

It’s Dundee hitting the headlines for all the right reasons and not for the first time this year

Dundee second-best city in UK to start a new business is first with bear protection. No not against some Rangers fans, the Polar ones

Silver medal and second in list of best places to start a new business 2017, it’s….. Edinburgh? No, it’s Dundee. Sit down Edinburgh.

‘University of Dundee is UK’s highest ranked institution for influencing innovation’

 

Aberdeen:

As Scottish oil industry booms, Aberdeen contractors more confident but Scottish media pay little attention.

Aberdeen 20: Dundee 12? The competition for Europe’s largest fleet of hydrogen fuel cell buses

Aberdeen University makes ‘step-change’ advance in MRI scanning

Aberdeen’s National Hyperbaric Centre to double income in one year as Scottish Government invests £1 million in a second facility

Scotland’s economic growth evident in increased passenger numbers at Edinburgh and Aberdeen airports

Is Aberdeen booming again?

Give in?

 

 

 

From my familiar but BBC Scotland’s unfamiliar, the wholly independent, Insider, based on a survey by the Federation of Small Businesses, today:

‘A poll of more than 1,000 UK SMEs showed confidence north of the border improving from -8 to -5 in the second quarter of the year, compared to a worsening across the UK as a whole from -6 to -8.’

Those minuses are less negative than they seem. In the same report, we read:

‘Scotland’s SMEs are currently among the UK’s most positive when it comes to revenue expectations and business conditions over the next 12 months. This optimism bodes well for the broader economy with a likely knock-on effect for job creation, investment and growth.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/sme-confidence-scotland-uk-amazon-12894013

Needless to say, this isn’t the only good news recently featured here but not ‘there’. See:

Business activity soars to four-year high across manufacturing and service

Business confidence in Scotland soars by 24% while it sinks 29% in non-Scottish parts of UK

Scottish businesses more likely to be stable than those in rest of UK: News from a parallel universe unknown to our mainstream media

Scottish Government supports economy with new business rates unique in UK

Scottish business confidence higher than in any other region of UK

Douglas Fraser will be saving these up for one big cheery special.