Talking-up Scotland

(c) pinterest

*See update from Legerwood below

From BBC Scotland today:

‘A key target for accident and emergency waiting times has not been met for a year, official figures show. The Scottish government’s benchmark for 95% of A&E patients to be either admitted, transferred or discharged in four hours was last met in the week ending 30 July 2017.’

It’s true. The last time was week-ending 30^th July 2017 when performance hit 95.5% of patients seen within 4 hours. BBC Scotland didn’t do this story last week or for most of June and July because the target had been met several times in those months in 2017. Indeed, this is the first opportunity in years! How frustrating that must have been. Imagine the drool as they watched and waited. How long had they been there, dripping hungrily in the long grass?

Of course, context is absent from their report, so we can’t really ask the question, ‘How bad is this?’, compared to performance elsewhere. Failure to meet targets might be bad or it might mean the targets are very high and aspirational. If they had been set cynically low for narrow political purposes, then they would have been easier to achieve.

The BBC seems to value context. See this from 2014:

‘What this shows is that while data is a useful way for journalists to access – and tell – stories, raw data alone will not suffice. Both context and analysis remain vitally important. Publishers overlook these elements at their peril.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/collegeofjournalism/entries/0408b877-8a7b-341e-9201-6b7907e6a628

So, why didn’t BBC Scotland have a quick look at the performance of our nearest neighbour, NHS England? Is this the answer?

‘The NHS in England says it will not this year hit the key target for treating or assessing 95% of patients in hospital Accident and Emergency departments within four hours. In a speech in March 2017, Mr Hunt said: “it is absolutely essential that we do get back to the 95% target” and he expected it to happen “in the course of the next calendar year”.  Yet now NHS England is talking in its planning guidance document of its “expectation” that the government would “roll forward” its goal.  It states that the majority of hospitals will only achieve the 95% standard by March 2019, with the NHS overall reaching that rate later in the year.’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-42943232

Who thinks they will make it by March 2019 as overseas workers flee Brexit Britain?

Finally, what was the average performance in the last year? An obvious and easy bit of context to provide surely? BBC Scotland don’t tell us. It won’t be published because it’s not a regular census point. It’s just the one BBC Scotland have been waiting excitedly for a long time. I can’t find it without adding all 52 scores up and dividing by…? Come on BBC Scotland! I’m not doing it but I’m guessing it’s above 90% and so, not much use in doing NHS Scotland down.

Thanks to all of you who have visited this site. Based on 59 000 visits in the last 30 days we are in 5th place of the top nine most popular ‘alternative’ Scottish news websites. I’m happy just to know that I’m not wasting my time. I’m especially pleased to see that there were not enough data to estimate the number of visits for Unionist websites Scotland In Union or These Islands. From the Indyref2 site which did the survey:

http://indyref2.scot/wings-over-scotland-continues-its-dominance-of-scotlands-alternative-media#comment-104734

It’s interesting also to see the geographical spread of the visitors which WordPress provides:

The above map (yellow shading means at least one reader lives there) could make you mad – Why does no one in Bolivia like me?

 

I haven’t written for some time on the topic of ‘Are Scots and Scottish society different, is it a difference which makes a difference, and can it play a part in justifying  self-government?’ A University of Glasgow research report, ‘Building a new life in Britain’, seems to support the thesis that we are:

‘Moreover, young Syrians appear to be much happier in Scotland than in England (49% against 30%). These emotions feed directly into young Syrians’ plans for their future in the UK, with 81% of those in Scotland intending to remain in the country, compared to 65% of those in England’ (p20).

The report also notes that young Syrians in Scotland are better supported with 72% having state-subsidised accommodation compared to only 46% in England. Similarly, 70% had state subsidies as the main source of income compared to 47% in England. This means that young Syrians had far better living-conditions’ with only 11% in shared accommodation compared to 28% in England.

https://policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/wp content/uploads/2018/07/building_futures_policy_report_1_july_2018-1.pdf

Earlier reports on ‘difference’:

Only in Scotland! ‘A review of small country’s approaches to public policy reform in response to economic, demographic and other pressures found that only in Scotland could this ‘golden thread’ be so clearly discerned’

Scientific evidence that Scots tend to be different from the other groups in rUK?

8% of the UK population and 28% of living wage employers. More evidence that we are different enough to want to run the whole show?

Who said Scots were not more left-wing than those in the rest of the UK?

SNP moves to finally put an end to foxes’agony being ripped apart by hounds as the English Tories plan a return to the unspeakable business. Different again?

Racial hate crimes increase by 33% in England & Wales while falling by 10% in Scotland: Who says we’re not different?

Scots more likely to give to charities, to volunteer or to sponsor others

Another wee difference as Scottish consumers seem more willing to pay more for ethical goods?

8% of the population but 11.8% of the charitable donations – ‘punching above our weight?’

Even more evidence of becoming a better nation as Scottish Government moves to end upfront childcare deposits

Another little difference that tells us something: SNP to improve disability terms for terminally ill.

£13.8 million in support for bereaved families from……? BBC Scotland, who is it from? Could it be from the Scottish Government? Don’t want to say?

More evidence of becoming a better nation as SNP ‘future-proof’ social security

There’s more.

(c) Indietravel

They came third and fifth with London and Manchester at 1 and 2. Frankly, I’m astonished that anyone thinks London would a better place to live. This is, of course, from Insider. Here’s a short extract and the usual list of related reports on the attractiveness of Scotland’s cities:

‘The results prove the importance UK workers place on maintaining a healthy work-life balance when considering their place of work. The study, conducted by totaljobs, also shows that the three key motivations for moving within the UK are better lifestyle (42%), increased employment opportunities (38%) and living in a desirable area (32%).’

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https://www.insider.co.uk/news/edinburgh-glasgow-top-five-cities-12977566

Edinburgh:

Edinburgh best place for technology in UK?

Edinburgh poised to make significant advances in mental health research based upon data science ‘unparalleled in UK’.

Glasgow and Edinburgh push London into third place in tourism hotspots survey

‘Edinburgh tops list of most influential small cities in Europe’

‘Edinburgh among the best for equality’

Value of top Edinburgh hotels grows significantly faster than rest of Europe

Best UK city for inward investment is Edinburgh

Massive increase in Chinese visitors to Edinburgh NOT attributed to weak pound and attracted by ‘Strongman skirt parties’

 

Glasgow:

More real economic strength revealed as demand for Glasgow office space increases dramatically

‘Glasgow named top convention spot for a record 12th year in a row’

Glasgow’s lower costs and supply of technology graduates tempting financial services firms away from London

One more indicator of economic well-being as Investment in Glasgow office property surges four-fold and Scotland ‘very much on the wish list’

Glasgow only UK city to make New York Times top ten cities to visit. Dundee makes CNN’s most design-savvy list with Tokyo and Paris

 

Dundee:

Is Dundee ‘punchin’? The only UK location in Lonely Planet’s top ten

Glasgow only UK city to make New York Times top ten cities to visit. Dundee makes CNN’s most design-savvy list with Tokyo and Paris

It’s Dundee hitting the headlines for all the right reasons and not for the first time this year

Dundee second-best city in UK to start a new business is first with bear protection. No not against some Rangers fans, the Polar ones

Silver medal and second in list of best places to start a new business 2017, it’s….. Edinburgh? No, it’s Dundee. Sit down Edinburgh.

‘University of Dundee is UK’s highest ranked institution for influencing innovation’

 

Aberdeen:

As Scottish oil industry booms, Aberdeen contractors more confident but Scottish media pay little attention.

Aberdeen 20: Dundee 12? The competition for Europe’s largest fleet of hydrogen fuel cell buses

Aberdeen University makes ‘step-change’ advance in MRI scanning

Aberdeen’s National Hyperbaric Centre to double income in one year as Scottish Government invests £1 million in a second facility

Scotland’s economic growth evident in increased passenger numbers at Edinburgh and Aberdeen airports

Is Aberdeen booming again?

 

 

 

(c) Scottish Construction Now

In Insider today:

‘Scottish SMEs in the construction sector enjoyed strong growth in the second quarter of 2018, despite significant adverse pressures, according to a survey from the Federation of Master Builders (FMB) Scotland. The latest FMB State of Trade Survey shows that the performance of SMEs rose strongly by 17 percentage points to +24 per cent in the survey’s main indicator which measures workloads, enquiries and expected workloads. The workloads for SME builders rose, with the proportion of firms that reported growing compared to Q1 2018 – up to 41% from 31%’.

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/federation-master-builders-scotland-survey-12972971

Needless to say, this isn’t the only good business news recently featured here but not ‘there’. See:

Scottish small businesses still more confident than those in non-Scottish parts

Business activity soars to four-year high across manufacturing and service

Business confidence in Scotland soars by 24% while it sinks 29% in non-Scottish parts of UK

Scottish businesses more likely to be stable than those in rest of UK: News from a parallel universe unknown to our mainstream media

Scottish Government supports economy with new business rates unique in UK

Scottish business confidence higher than in any other region of UK

Douglas Fraser doesn’t seem to be saving these up for one big cheery special.

 

(c) Mad in America

On BBC Reporting Scotland after 6.30pm, last night, we heard:

‘The number of young people in Scotland on anti-depressants has increased by 10% over the last three years. There were similar increases in England and Northern Ireland.’

The increase in England was 15% or 50% higher than that in Scotland. The choice to report the increases over three years was arbitrary and designed to maximise and dramatize the headline figure.

We then heard:

‘The figures show a small rise for under-18’s from 5564 to 5 572.’

This increase of 8 from well over 5 thousand represents an increase of 0.14%, is statistically insignificant, much smaller than ‘small’ and consequently not worthy of reporting or should have been reported as ‘not significantly different’. Further, some context is clearly needed if we are to fully understand the statistics. Most obvious, how many under 18’s are there in Scotland. Official statistics only tell us how many under-15’s there are – 920 000 in 2017, but even this figure would suggest that fewer than 0.6%, fewer than 1 in a hundred, are taking anti-depressants.

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-estimates/mid-17/mid-year-pop-est-17-publication.pdf

Then, and of greater importance here, we heard:

‘In under-12’s, prescribed anti-depressant figures were up from 221 to 252. That’s a 26% rise over 3 years.’

These very small figures by contrast with those for the under-18’s, require, even more, context. How many under-12’s are there in Scotland? Once more, official statistics do not tell us this specifically but, in 2001, there were 670 00 pupils, excluding pre-school, in primary schools.

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2011/12/06114834/4

Even if we take this very conservative figure, 252 represents only 0.037% or fewer than one in every 2 600. So, does this tell us that we have a significant problem or is it to be expected given contemporary practice?

In England, in 2016, 3 876 children aged 7 to 12 and 315 aged 6 or younger were given anti-depressants. That gives a total of 4 191.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jun/18/number-of-under-18s-on-antidepressants-in-england-rises-by-12

So, England has roughly 10 times the population and at least ten times the number of under-12’s (the birth rate is higher) and yet seems to have approaching twice the level of anti-depressant prescription for under-12s.

See this for anti-depressant prescription in the USA in 2017:

0-5 Years              38,534

Breakdown:
0-1 Years               6,687
2-3 Years               10,957
4-5 Years               21,299

6-12 Years            574,090

https://www.cchrint.org/psychiatric-drugs/children-on-psychiatric-drugs/

The USA has 59 times the population of Scotland and at least (the birth rate is higher) 59 times the number of under-12’s and yet has more than 2 000 times the level of anti-depressant prescription for under-12’s.

So, Reporting Scotland, have you produced what is effectively a scare story based on incomplete and out-of-context statistics?

Readers, is this another in a long sequence of such reporting on Scotland’s health and health system and, if so, why?

 

 

 

 

I know, my headline reveals that I just don’t understand journalism. Nobody is going to read that. Showing their churnalistic class, BBC Scotland today warned:

‘Scottish prescription costs rise by 25% over 10 years’

and reminded us that:

‘Prescriptions have been free in Scotland since April 2011, a policy introduced by the SNP government.’

The Scotsman had:

‘Scottish prescriptions bill 25% higher than decade ago’

And the iNews had:

‘Scotland’s NHS faces soaring prescriptions bill as population ages’

OMG! It’s worrying, isn’t it? How will we be able to afford this reckless utopian SNP policy after independence? Wait a minute, how much has inflation risen in the same period? Look at this graph:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/306648/inflation-rate-consumer-price-index-cpi-united-kingdom-uk-y-on-y/

So, the average inflation rate over the period 2008 to 2018 was 23.9 divided by 10 or 2.39%. Is there really a story there?

 

 

 

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We heard today, across the Scottish media, that Barclays plan to create (up to) 2 500 jobs in Glasgow. This will (may) double Barclay’s Scottish force and is, for the First minister, ‘transformational for Glasgow.’

Most commentators have mentioned lower labour costs, the skill pool and, of course, the £13 million sweetener from Scottish Enterprise/Scottish government. Douglas mentioned these but was more interested in making sure we didn’t get carried away with good news. He reminded us that it is ‘up to’ 2 500 jobs with at least some of these being transfers from London and that we should ‘treat this with caution.’ He also warned us that ‘jobs are vulnerable to being replaced by technological advances.’ So, don’t get your hopes up. We’ll still be too wee, too poor and to stupid.

However, few of the sources today mentioned the Brexit factor and it’s closely linked, Scottish Independence in the EU, factor but two did:

‘A source at the bank [Barclays] said: “Nothing is a done deal until they start moving people, but Glasgow is cost-friendly, has a good workforce – and might be in the EU when independent.”’

https://www.scottishfinancialnews.com/18209/barclays-considering-bigger-glasgow-base-as-part-of-brexit-plans/

‘Glasgow is cost-friendly, has a good workforce – and might be in the EU when independent, staff reporters are told. Barclays’ headquarters in London could be in name only in a post-Brexit world, according to plans seen by Chief-Exec.com, which outline Glasgow as a new hub of operations. Scotland would be the obvious choice destination for transfers of jobs and decision-making if it voted again to remain in the EU. The Barclays development is significant, therefore, because it appears to see an independent Scotland in the EU as a possible option.’

https://chief-exec.com/?p=4603

Tracing the source of the quote will be no easier than finding which Amazon exec ‘predicted a riot’ post-hard-Brexit.

Not making the same specific point but also suggesting confidence in Scotland’s future, Insider had this to say:

‘Although there has been much talk of firms moving operations away from the UK ahead of or after Brexit, Scotland has seen an encouraging number of recent investments. They included Julius Baer International, which opened an office in Edinburgh in May to serve as a headquarters for its operations in Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England. Graeme Jones, chief executive of Scottish Financial Enterprise said: ‘The world’s largest global wealth manager would not be opening up in Scotland unless they were highly confident about future prospects here.’.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/special-reports/scottish-financial-services-brexit-storm-12610963

How things have changed since Standard Life threatened to move to England in 2014.

 

This is another of those ‘the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence unless it concerns Scotland’s media’ reports. In the Independent today and covered by the Guardian too, based on a research by Shelter:

‘More than half of homeless families across England are in work but soaring rent and a lack of social housing is pushing more households into temporary accommodation, a charity has warned. Data obtained by Shelter shows that more than 33,000 families in temporary accommodation are holding down a job despite having nowhere stable to live – a figure that has increased by 73 per cent since 2013, when it was 19,000 families.’

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/homeless-families-temporary-accommodation-work-shelter-social-housing-a8459036.html

Surely even Tories must be sympathetic to those ‘deserving poor’ who are homeless yet work?

The Scottish media have no such tales of crisis in Scotland and we know from previous experience that had they, or their Labour feeders, found the evidence we’d know all about it.

I searched and searched but could only find one source, Employability Scotland, indicating that only 2% of homeless people were in full-time employment in 2013.

http://www.employabilityinscotland.com/key-clients/homelessness/

So, given that the Shelter data suggest that the English working homeless accounted for about 30% of the total in 2013, Scotland seems to have had only 2% in these circumstances.

You’ll see that Shelter attributed much of the blame on soaring rents and lack of social or affordable housing. On this, I do have reliable statistics suggesting the far superior performance of the Scottish Government, over ten improving years, in delivering affordable housing. See this from June 2018:

 ‘New government statistics reveal there were 11,677 affordable homes approved in 2017/18, 14% more than the previous year and the third consecutive annual increase since 2014/15. This includes increases in affordable rent approvals (which have more than doubled, up by 1,433 homes), and affordable home ownership approvals (up by 5% or 92 homes), with a decrease in social rent approvals (down by 2% or 124 homes).’

http://www.scottishhousingnews.com/21876/affordable-housing-approvals-up-14-to-11680-in-latest-year/

Back in January 2018, Scottish Housing News had been able to report:

‘Scotland has delivered a third more affordable homes per capita over the last decade than England, according to figures from the Scottish Government. In answer to a parliamentary question from Edinburgh North and Leith MSP Ben Macpherson, housing minister Kevin Stewart revealed that over the 2007-08 to 2016-17 financial years, the government’s supply of affordable housing per capita has been 33% higher than the UK government’s supply in England. According to the figures, 70,861 affordable homes have been delivered in Scotland in the ten years since April 2007.’

The SHN report also presented figures showing the performance under SNP government, increasing, notably, as the legacy of Labour underperformance faded:

Number of Affordable housing units delivered in Scotland and England, financial years from 2007-08

Scotland		England		%  diff Scotland England per capita
	Units delivered	Per capita	Units delivered		Per capita
2007-08	5,670	110	53,180	104	6%
2008-09	6,221	120	55,720	108	11%
2009-10	8,092	155	58,290	112	38%
2010-11	7,231	137	61,090	116	18%
2011-12	6,882	130	58,330	110	18%
2012-13	6,009	113	43,120	81	40%
2013-14	7,012	132	43,030	80	65%
2014-15	7,069	132	66,700	123	8%
2015-16	6,518	121	32,630	60	104%
2016-17	7,336	136	41,530	75	81%
Total over 2007-08 to 2016-17	68,040	1,285	513,620	967	33%

Sources: Scottish Government Affordable Housing Supply Programme management information system and Ministry for Housing & Local Government live tables.

http://www.scottishhousingnews.com/19574/scotland-streets-ahead-england-affordable-housing-delivery/

Finally, Scotland has among the strongest rights in Europe for people facing homelessness.

Homeless applications have fallen by 36% since 2008. Statistics for 2015 and 2016 show homelessness has been falling in Scotland with applications down 4%, and assessments down 2%, compared to the previous year.

https://beta.gov.scot/policies/homelessness/

https://www.crisis.org.uk/media/238700/homelessness_monitor_england_2018.pdf

 

In the Herald today:

‘Scots mental health units rack up one injury every hour as figures reveal toll of assaults, burns and falls. Mental health units in Scotland are racking up an injury every hour among patients, staff and visitors, figures reveal. Over the past three years, psychiatric facilities recorded an average of 24 incidents a day. These ranged from assaults and accidents such as falls and trips, to substance abuse and issues with absconding and patient transport.’

One every hour? OMG that must a crisis! We better report it….in the public interest of course. Should we cheat a bit by calling all incidents, including trips and running away, ‘injuries’ in the headline? Go on. No one will notice.

Should we mention how many people aren’t ‘injured’ every hour? No? It’s not necessary?

It is quite difficult to say how many patients, staff and visitors there are in mental health units on a typical day.

However, we can say there were 3 572 inpatients being treated in NHS Scotland facilities at the March 2017 Census.

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/09/9675

and, there were around 1 200 psychiatric and psychology staff;

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Workforce/Publications/2014-11-25/2014-11-25-Psychology-Workforce-Report.pdf?09:10:58

and there should’ve been around 500 registered nurses;

https://www.unison.org.uk/content/uploads/2017/04/Rationotrationing.pdf

and, based admittedly on my own visits, at least the same number of nursing assistants.

That would give something like 4 700 staff and patients but not counting drivers, catering staff and any others not mentioned. What about visitors? I know many mental health patients get none but say 1 300? So, 5 000 patients, staff and visitors as a conservative estimate?

OK, every hour an ‘injury’. Let’s use that 1/5 000 ratio to generate some headlines:

‘1 in 5 000 mental health patients, staff or visitors may have been assaulted, fallen, run away or burnt themselves every hour.’

‘0.02% of mental health patients, staff or visitors may have been assaulted, fallen, run away or burnt themselves every hour.’

Now those will have the SNP worried.