Survation poll confirms SNP is pulling ahead

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The Kantar sub-poll, two days ago, suggested a recovery by the SNP and decline by both Tories and Labour, but the numbers were too small (less than 100) to give confidence.

However, today’s Survation poll of more than 1 000 adults, for the Daily Record, gives greater confidence in the expected recovery by the SNP as Westminster staggers from one crisis to another. The results on voting intentions for Westminster are:

  • SNP                        42%     up 5
  • Conservatives      24%     down 5
  • Labour                  23%     down 4

In terms of seats, this would give

  • SNP                     49          up 14
  • Conservatives     5          down 8
  • Labour                1          down 6

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/labour-slip-backwards-scotland-snp-12908057

We can’t see when the data was collected but can be sure it was before Trump’s astonishing undermining of May’s Brexit plans and the chaotic presentation of the plans at Westminster. These events, subsequent EU rejection of much of the plan, further back-stabbing within the Tories and a failure by Labour to do anything, can only push SNP support toward overwhelming support in Scotland with a bonus in Davidson having to seek a seat south of the border.

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11 thoughts on “Survation poll confirms SNP is pulling ahead

  1. John July 13, 2018 / 1:57 pm

    Why did they leave out the sixteen /seventeen year olds vote this time round , they don’t usually leave them out , was it that if they put them in we would be well over 50% ? , I think once again the goalposts have been changed hoping no one would notice , well the Scots are not as daft as you think ! . A more devious , calculating , dishonest nest of vipers than the Brinat coalitionists would be hard to find ! .

    Liked by 1 person

  2. johnrobertson834 July 13, 2018 / 2:24 pm

    Yes I agree. I guess they’d say it allows comparison with UK-wide polls with a Scottish sub-set.

    Liked by 1 person

    • John July 13, 2018 / 2:31 pm

      Yes , well they can say what they like , it still stinks !

      Like

    • Alasdair Macdonald July 13, 2018 / 5:04 pm

      No, that is not right either. There are only 59 Westminster seats allocated to Scotland. So, I think the distribution on these figures would be something like: SNP 52, Conservatives 5, Labour 1 and LibDems1. However, given tactical voting by Cons, Lab and LibDem unionist diehards in some constituencies where they could block SNP, something like 46, 9, 2, 2, might be more likely. It is still a gain by SNP nd a loss for the others.

      With regard to Westminster, 16/17 year olds do not have a vote. They could vote in Holyrood elections and in any referendum, unless the ‘power grab’ enables Westminster to refuse to sanction 16 or 17 year olds voting in any referendum. EU nationals, resident in Scotland, who were eligible to vote in 2014, would probably be excluded, too. So, the pro independence figures are probably less than the 47% reported. I think things are continuing to be becalmed at around 45/55, until the Brexit crash out becomes a reality.

      Like

      • John July 13, 2018 / 6:25 pm

        Yes , but a referendum for Independence would include 16/17 year old Scots , can’t see even rabid Unionists trying to change that , a president has been set .There will be no vote for EU citizens, but they voted to stay in the UK in 2014 because they were told if they voted for Independence they would be would be tufted out of the UK . I am confident, very confident, the result this time will be yes .

        Liked by 1 person

      • Alasdair Macdonald July 13, 2018 / 7:07 pm

        John,

        I recall an interview with a recently retired head of the civil service, who was defending the ‘unwritten constitution’ because it ‘allowed them to make things up as they went along’. They often talked about ‘precedents’, and ‘Erskine May’, but, they were only applied when it suited them. The perfidy of Eestminster is part of its DNA. Remember in the 1979 referendum, Labour MPs led by the Scottish born, Mr George Cunningham, amended the legislation to require 40% of the electorate to vote in favour for the referendum result to be implemented. So, although YES won, it lost.

        Liked by 1 person

  3. John July 13, 2018 / 8:08 pm

    Yes I remember , as I said before they move the goalposts , anything to keep Scotland in it’s box .

    Liked by 1 person

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