Talking-up Scotland

(c) Photograph: Steve Caplin

From the SNP Government website:

‘Thousands of individuals and families across Scotland are being forced into poverty as a result of UK welfare cuts. The cuts imposed by the UK Government will continue to reduce welfare, by 2020/21 social security spending in Scotland is expected to have reduced by £3.7 billion since 2010, a new report has found. The annual Welfare Reform report finds that the UK Government’s benefit freeze alone has led to huge reductions in spending – around £190 million in the current year 2018/2019, rising to around £370 million by 2020/21.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/uk-welfare-cuts-pushing-more-families-into-poverty

Is the SNP Government acting to moderate the effects?

From the Social Metrics Commission, ‘A new measure of poverty for the UK’, we can see that poverty is still a major problem for Scotland’s politicians but that, due to progressive Scottish Government policies, such as that compensating for the bedroom tax or for protecting the disabled, along with increased social housing provision, the overall situation in Scotland is significantly (in a statistical sense) better here. This is illustrated in Figure 37 from the report, below:

According to the report:

‘Figure 37 shows poverty rates overall for each country and also split by working-age adults, children and pensioners. The main differences are in the poverty rates for Wales and Scotland, where, compared to the UK average, poverty rates are generally higher for people living in Wales and lower for those living in Scotland.

http://socialmetricscommission.org.uk/MEASURING-POVERTY-FULL_REPORT.pdf

Recommended reading for next week’s seminar:

Against the odds: Evidence of how SNP policies have defended Scotland against a least some of Tory austerity

Scottish Government announces that poverty gap is closing. BBC Scotland ignores it

SNP administration only government with a commitment to tackle child poverty

 

 

On the BBC early morning broadcasts and on the website, with tabloid imagery, today:

‘Nearly 1,600 people in Scotland have been told about the abusive past of their partners since the introduction of a new law in 2015. Police Scotland said that 3,500 people in total had made requests for information under the Disclosure Scheme for Domestic Abuse in Scotland (DSDAS).’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-45697807

How common are reports of domestic abuse in Scotland?

Domestic abuse in Scotland remains a national disgrace. I’m in no way wishing to understate the scale of the problem:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-41737390

27 496 crimes of domestic abuse! Appalling! Perhaps we may take a little comfort in the recorded levels falling against a background of greater willingness to report?

Are men ever the victims?

Controversially, one charity suggested in 2010, that attacks by women on men are disproportionally less likely to be reported because of social stigma and may be as high as 40% of all incidents.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2010/sep/05/men-victims-domestic-violence

Also, controversially, but based on 2016/2017 statistics, we see from the ONS (in England and Wales):

‘An estimated 1.9 million adults aged 16 to 59 years experienced domestic abuse in the last year, according to the year ending March 2017 Crime Survey for England and Wales (1.2 million women, 713,000 men).’

This suggests that more than 35% of the reports were from men!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/domesticabuseinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2017

Is domestic crime particularly high in Scotland?

However, it is the lack of geographical context which is most notably missing from today’s reporting.

In Scotland, in 2016/2017, there were 27 496 cases of domestic abuse recorded as crimes.

In England & Wales, in the same year:

‘The police recorded 1.1 million domestic abuse-related incidents and crimes in the year ending March 2017 and of these, 46% were recorded as domestic abuse-related crimes.’

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/domesticabuseinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2017

46% of 1.1 million is 500 600 recorded as domestic abuse-related crimes.

England & Wales has a combined population of 58 million, so the rate of domestic abuse-related crimes is 1 for every 115.8 people.

Scotland has a population of 5.4 million, so the rate of domestic abuse-related crimes is 1 for every 196.4 people.

The rate of domestic abuse-related crimes is nearly twice as high in England and Wales as it is in Scotland.

The figures for 2014/i5 (Scotland) and 2015/16 (England & Wales) tell a similar story:

Why is the rate so much higher for England & Wales?

Well one factor is very difficult to talk about. England and Wales have a more diverse population than Scotland. A few only of the ethno-linguistic groups within that diversity have a greater tendency to see women simply as resources or possessions of the husband and of the extended family. Within a very small number of these groups, often those from more rural or tribal origins, regardless of religious affiliation, male elders are prepared to apply severe physical punishments, including ‘honour killing’, to women perceived as straying or disrespecting the males and/or the traditions of the group.

Sweden’s perhaps comparable situation is responsibly discussed here:

https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-bombings-grenade-attacks-violent-reality-undoing-peaceful-self-image-law-and-order/

Is the SNP Government working to improve the situation here?

See:

‘A law setting a “gold standard” for domestic abuse legislation by incorporating both emotional and physical violence into the same offence is expected to be passed by the Scottish parliament.’

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/01/scotland-set-to-pass-gold-standard-domestic-abuse-law

Footnote: In a response to blogger IndyRef2 complaining about the use of the term SNP Government rather than Scottish Government, in reports only of bad news, BBC Scotland have decided that they were entitled to do so. So, that’s settled then.

BBC Scotland’s Disclosure Team find evidence of recent racist activity in Scotland!

Reporting Scotland, Saturday 29^th September at 5.30pm, on racism in Scotland was, well, more racism NOT in Scotland.

We heard about a worthy EIS initiative to reduce racism in Scottish schools, but Reporting Scotland clearly felt they should be able to justify the project with evidence of a need for it. They couldn’t find any Scottish examples, so we had mention of the Manchester Arena bomb attack and some anecdotal tales from Anas Sarwar. I heard he didn’t get the Labour leadership because he is….rich and his family firm don’t pay the living wage.

We even heard of a rise in far-right politics. Do they mean in Scotland? Where? Who?

What we didn’t have was:

‘There were 3,349 [hate crime] charges reported [in Scotland] in 2016-17, 10 percent fewer than in 2015-16, and the lowest number reported since 2003-04.’

http://www.copfs.gov.uk/media-site-news-from-copfs/1559-hate-crime-in-scotland-2016-17-report-released

Remember these figures include graffiti, passing comments and tweets on semitism (17), racism and attacks against English, East Europeans, sikhs, catholics and presumably protestants too.

In England and Wales, however:

 ‘Hate crimes have rocketed by almost a third in the UK in the past year, with unprecedented spikes around the EU referendum and terror attacks recorded by police. New figures released by the Home Office confirm victims’ reports of a dramatic increase in incidents motivated by attackers’ hostility towards their race, nationality, religion or other factors. Data from police forces across England and Wales showed there were almost 80,400 hate crimes recorded in the 2016/17 financial year.’

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/hate-crimes-eu-referendum-spike-brexit-terror-attacks-police-home-office-europeans-xenophobia-a8004716.html

So, once again Scots, don’t get any ideas about being different.

(c) Scotsman

You’ve no doubt watched in disgust as Revolting Scotland and others desperately exaggerate the impact of isolated stories to unnerve, especially, our elderly and sick. Here is the real news:

95% of Scottish cancer patients treated within 31-day standard but NHS England in crisis

Immunisation of Scottish children continues to exceed the 95% target after four years

Most Scottish health boards exceeded target for alcohol and drug treatment waiting times while NHS England’s services fell into crisis

Scotland has 10% of the population but 17% of the health visitors and fewer post-natal deaths after SNP government increases staffing by 25%

NHS Scotland survives summer heatwave despite SNP failure to control London Met Office

NHS Scotland chronic pain waiting times hold steady despite 3.26% increase in demand and while NHS England figures mysteriously disappear

SNP blamed for standing by as NHS England vacancies run at more than three times those in NHS Scotland

SNP Government acts early to prevent NHS winter crisis in 2018/19

NHS Scotland Psychological Therapies waiting times almost maintained despite major increase in demand

Six consecutive years of NHS Scotland staffing growth

Looking south only, NHS England is ‘left behind Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Japan’ but Scotland is both ‘just behind’ and well ahead of them!

91% satisfaction with NHS Scotland staff! Patients even more satisfied than before

NHS Scotland maintains waiting times for Outpatients despite soaring pressures and unlike the crisis in non-Scottish parts

NHS Scotland sees more patients within 18 weeks as demand soars

Major achievement by NHS Scotland as operations cancelled due to capacity or non-clinical reasons fall dramatically by 31%

Is BBC Scotland exploiting patients with mental health problems to construct an ill-founded attack on NHS Tayside?

At 78% level of satisfaction with NHS Scotland is impressive 36% higher than for the NHS across UK

NHS Scotland misrepresented!

Anger over Scotsman’s call for Miles Briggs to be listened to…at all as NHS taxi costs fall 14% in one year

NHS Scotland first to be 100% Baby Friendly

Updated: The Scotsman colludes with Labour and Tories to fake another crisis in NHS Scotland

NHS England sees 35% increase in patients waiting more than 18 weeks while NHS Scotland reports a fall of 0.2% despite a 14.6% increase in demand

Scotsman, Herald and Tories collude in another laughable attempt to unseat Scottish Health Secretary using NHS Scotland’s success stories

NHS Lothian ‘bed-blocking’ remains much lower than average in NHS England

Scotsman under fire over dishonest reporting of four-doctor protest, against NHS England, but at Holyrood (?), in latest round weaponizing NHS in proxy war against SNP

NHS Scotland A&E performance is more than 10% better than NHS England though BBC Salford mislead viewers by using wrong figure

NHS Scotland: 27% increase in kidney transplants including 10% increase from living donors as ‘UK’ level falls to eight-year low

Bed-blocking in NHS Scotland falls by nearly 10% in one year as the rate in NHS England surges to nearly 500% higher, per capita, than that in NHS Scotland!

National auditors find two very different NHS systems in the UK. Someone tell Theresa today.

I’m sorry that this is all I could find in the last 8 months.

In Scotland, the 95% target for waiting times of 31 days or less, between decision to treat and first treatment, was met in June 2018, having been met or only just missed for the last six years . Four out of fifteen boards did not meet the target. In 2017, the average was 94.8%.

The 62-day wait between first suspicion of cancer to first treatment was, however, only met in 84.6% of cases. In NHS England, the figure was only 78.2%.

It was not my intention to deceive by the above ordering but merely to offer a novel alternative to the BBC Scotland tendency to put the bad news first and in the headline leaving only more attentive listeners to get the good news

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Waiting-Times/Publications/2018-09-25/2018-09-25-CWT-Summary.pdf?85065859557

In NHS England:

‘Patients who are given an urgent referral by their GP are meant to start treatment within 62 days. But in July [2018], 78.2% were seen in that timeframe, the worst performance since records began in October 2009. It means more than 3,000 people waited longer than two months for treatment to begin. The target is also being missed elsewhere in the UK (sic)’.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45508622

 

 

 

 

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Child-Health/Publications/2018-09-25/2018-09-25-Childhood-Immunisation-Summary.pdf?98028200865

Here are the main points for the quarter ending 30 June 2018

• Uptake rates by 12 months of age increased slightly and remain above 95% for complete primary courses of immunisation of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV), MenB vaccine, and the five-in-one vaccine, which protects against: diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (whooping cough), polio and Haemophilus (Hib).
• Uptake of the complete two dose course of rotavirus vaccine by 12 months of age remained at 93.5%.
• Uptake rates of the Hib/MenC and PCV booster vaccines by 24 months both increased slightly, with rates at 95.1% and 95.3% respectively.
• The national target is for 95% uptake of one dose of the MMR vaccine by five years of age, with a supplementary measure at 24 months. Uptake of one dose of MMR vaccine increased slightly to94.5% by 24 months of age and 96.9% by five years of age. Uptake rates of one dose of MMR by five years have remained above the 95% target since 2009.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45508622

 

As a former Labour voter, I felt it. Like the distant memory of a former lover it sang ‘Johnneeee, remember meeee?’ Woah..wake up you eejit! Despite Brexit, Boris and Theresa, some ripped-off SNP policies and a popular swing against austerity, the UK Labour Party cannot pull ahead in polls or in recent electoral results. See the above tracker for only part of the evidence.

This was done before the Labour conference but it’s not clear that has done them much good.

There’s worse. Nottingham, Clifton North’s predominantly EU-leave, elderly and working-class voters, in the middle of the Labour conference, turned out for the Tories in greater number and the Labour vote fell:

Even in middle-class Lichfield, a 12.7% swing to Labour could not overturn the Tory majority:

Perhaps most disturbing, in poverty-stricken Eccles (Salford), in the middle of the conference too, the Labour vote falls:

Maybe a second Brexit vote will keep Scotland in the EU so I won’t need to abandon Labour in Scotland? 61% of voters think they knew fine why they voted. Will ‘remain’ win next time? Sure?

Think voters will take it more seriously in a second vote? Sure?

Think Labour won’t ally with the Tories and shoot themselves in the foot this time?

 

Think Labour in Scotland will be united and make sense in the next campaign? Sure?

Nuff said?

https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en

 

Across Scotland, between 1 April and 30 June 2018, 6 927 people sought alcohol treatment with 94.1 waiting three weeks or less. 4 823 sought drug treatment with 93.7% waiting three weeks or less.

Of Scotland’s fifteen health boards, only NHS Lothian missed the 5-week target of 90% (by less than 1%) and only four (Lothian, Glasgow, Shetland, Tayside) missed the 3-week target. Eight boards came very close to 100% success.

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Drugs-and-Alcohol-Misuse/Publications/2018-09-25/2018-09-25-DATWT-Summary.pdf?17199343443

And in England, no sign of official figures being kept anymore, but see this:

‘The number of people being admitted to hospital due to problems with alcohol has hit a record high in England, new figures show, following steep cuts to addiction support services in recent years. Spending on drug and alcohol support services across England fell by 16 per cent in the four years to 2017, as revealed by The Independent in August. The latest figures show there has been a 13 per cent rise in hospital admissions over the same period. Separate data last year showed the number of people getting government-funded support to tackle their addictions had decreased by 10 per cent in three years, with the number of interventions falling from 308,118 in 2013-14 to 278,489 in 2016-17.’

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/nhs-latest-alcohol-addiction-hospital-admissions-record-high-support-services-rehab-cut-jeremy-hunt-a8200876.html

 

 

From Bloomberg via Energy Voice, today:

‘As if the mood in the oil market wasn’t already bullish enough, Brent crude is giving traders another reminder of the days of $100 crude. Prices are headed for a fifth quarterly advance in London — the longest rally since June 2008. This historical echo comes as consumers are once again eyeing supply disruptions and worrying about the availability of backup supplies, just as they were a decade ago when the benchmark hit an all-time high above $147.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/182669/oil-looking-promising-as-it-makes-sustained-surge/

For more on expected revenue and taxation see:

As Scottish oil heads for $100pb will the UK Treasury tax this massive revenue?

And another prediction:

 

 

 

© renewableenergyhub.co.uk

The main points:

• Renewable electricity generation increased from 12 194GWh in the first six months of 2017 to 12 421GWh for the same period in 2018.
• Increase of 8% in renewable projects coming on line.
• At end of Q2 2018, there was 10 336 MW of installed renewables electricity capacity.
• 69% of electricity demand in 2017/18, met from renewables

https://news.gov.scot/news/renewable-electricity-continues-to-grow-in-scotland

Other recent reports on growth in Scotland’s renewables energy sector:

More signs of a tidal surge in Scotland’s renewables industry

62% increase in Scottish community renewables projects since 2011 pushing well ahead of rUK

8% of the population and 25% of UK renewable generation.

World’s first renewables-powered hydrogen ferry to be built in Port Glasgow

Return of the meme? Only 8% of the population but Scotland has 21.7% of all independent renewable projects in the UK

Scotland surges toward 100% renewables electricity generation well ahead of target

Why Scotland’s huge renewable energy production may need no huge energy storage breakthrough to flourish

South East Asia can learn much from Scotland’s oil and renewables story

300 renewable energy jobs boom for North of Scotland expected at Nigg Energy Park