Since first thing yesterday morning, the online news agencies have been buzzing with the news that crude oil prices are now confidently expected to hit $100 per barrel in 2019. Bloomberg and Reuters reported around 06:00 with newspapers such as the Express reporting by midday. None of the reports had anything to say about Scotland and our Scottish Nomedia are presumably working on turning it into very bad news with interviews involving angry drivers.
The idea that oil might hit $100pb was mentioned here in July 2017 with four more predictions ending in June 2018:
Will Scotland’s oil hit $100 (or more?) a barrel again after 2020?
With production costs falling to $12pb, the revenue available to be taxed will amount to billions, maybe a trillion. See this for more detail:
A fifth prediction of oil rising to $100 per barrel for Scottish oil, suggests pre-tax revenue of around $1 trillion!
However, we already suspect the Treasury will forgo this income with tax breaks for the corporations in a desperate attempt to keep the myth of Scotland’s deficit going. See:
‘London is giving away Scotland’s oil revenues
Tom Mitro, who managed Chevron’s taxation and financial planning in the North Sea in the 1990s, said [a new tax] scheme could deprive the Treasury of more than £3bn in tax over the next decade.
“Overall impact on the Exchequer of [the transferable tax history scheme] could range from virtually zero to roughly [a] £3bn [plus] reduction in tax receipts over the next 10 years depending on oil prices and [the] number of asset sales and decommissioning [of North Sea platforms and pipelines],” he said in a research paper prepared for Global Witness, the non-governmental organisation.
But why does the Treasury care? If it assists the spin that Scotland cannot survive on its own, I suspect that’s considered a price worth paying. And I would not be at all surprised if that is part of the political motivation for this.’
‘Huge swing in North Sea oil revenues’ suggests tax fiddle
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