Talking-up Scotland

I’ve got a sair heid from reading this.

Here is McNab’s opening statement:

‘More than £400million of spending has been axed from Scotland’s education system since the start of the decade, official figures have revealed.  Older pupils have suffered the brunt of the cuts with spending on secondary education falling by about £350m from budgets since 2010.Nurseries and primary schools saw a rise in spending, according to the figures from the independent Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe). Recent years have seen a worrying fall in Scottish education in international league tables and the SNP Government is now facing claims that it has failed to protect schools from the worst impact of Tory austerity.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/spending-on-scots-schools-falls-by-400m-in-a-decade-1-4779195

It’s a chaotic piece of writing, peppered with daft comments including that by Iain Grey, but I’ll concentrate on dealing with the two main issues –  a fall in Secondary school spending, leading supposedly but with no evidence at all of it, to older pupils ‘feeling the brunt’  and to an implied connection to a fall in performance in international league tables.

Spending fall in Secondary schools not properly explained

McNab entirely misses these crucial figures:

In 2007 there were 798 275 pupils overall and 309 560 in secondary schools. In 2017 there were 688 959 pupils overall and 281 933 in secondary schools.

https://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/School-Education/Datasets

So, there was a 15.8%drop in the overall number of pupils and a 9.7% drop in the number of secondary pupils over the last ten years.  McNab doesn’t tell us what the percentage change in budgets was for the same period and he doesn’t source anything, so I can’t trace it quickly. I guess, someone mentioned inflation and he decided not to bother with all that. He does later tell us this:

‘Secondary spending has fallen from £2.25bn to £1.9 bn last year. Primary schooling has risen slightly to £1.96bn, but now tops secondary spending. Nursery spending has also seen a slight increase by more than £50m to reach £410m.’

That suggests a fall of £.35 billion or £350 million from £2.25 billion in 2007 which is a 15% fall. That’s about the same as the overall percentage fall in pupil numbers but greater than the fall in secondary numbers. I’m sure secondary staff might complain at that, but does it not simply reflect a shift in resourcing from secondary to the historically less well funded primary and pre-school sectors, in line with both explicit policy, the research suggesting the shift was needed, and mentioned by McNab in his opening statements?

Do International league tables tell us anything valuable?

I’ve written about this before and the simple answer is that they are useless. Reading them, the Unionist media and the opposition parties scream out ‘crisis’ and reveal just how little they know about education, especially international comparisons. Here is the truth of the matter in ten statements which I elaborated on at the link below:

1. Some tests just suit some countries’ education systems. Doing well in one test doesn’t make that country’s overall education system better than that of lower rankers and in some cases, especially in East Asia (China, Korea, Singapore), it is evidence of them being worse in many ways.
2. The PISA results are based on unreliable estimates with huge scope for error and thus, I quote, ‘useless.’
3. Summarising a country’s education system in just three numbers is, I quote, ‘madness.’
4. Comparing countries with radically different cultures and educational structures is meaningless.
5. PISA does not measure curriculum knowledge just general skills, so the so-called successes of Finland and South Korea or the middle-rank ‘failure’ of Scotland are not based on the quality of their teachers, their schools or their curriculum.
6. The Finnish system is not that successful in other ways that PISA does not test.
7. The highly authoritarian, ‘industrial’ East Asian systems are a form of child abuse we surely do not want to see in Scotland.
8. The East Asian systems are not at all successful in developing the creativity, originality and innovation needed for future success in developed societies.
9. The East Asian systems, in most cases, brutally abandon children with learning difficulties.
10. The Scottish system is highly successful in feeding its universities with ever more and better qualified students, it is inclusive, caring and explicitly promotes creativity, originality and innovation.

Scotland’s school’s PISA results ‘lean’ toward nothing meaningful. Finland’s success is not real. South Korea and China’s educational programmes amount to child abuse

 

 

 

In the student rag, Herald, today, we had another ill-founded report of a crisis:

‘Teacher recruitment crisis: Scottish schools facing nearly 700 vacancies. HUNDREDS of teaching posts across Scotland remain unfilled less than two weeks before pupils return after the summer break. Research by The Herald has revealed there are currently some 670 teacher vacancies at primaries and secondaries across Scotland.’

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16397818.teacher-recruitment-crisis-scottish-schools-facing-nearly-700-vacancies/

________________________________________________________________________________________

BAJ Yr 1           Student: Denholm, A.             Tutor: Prof Robertson             5/8/18

Dear Andrew,

1. Your proposal re teacher shortages in Scotland is seriously short of evidence to back up your case or to contextualise your argument.
   11. How does the number of teachers per capita in Scotland compare with that in, say, England? A quick search finds: 51 513 teacher FTEs in Scotland https://www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/12/3099/348574 and 457 300 thousand FTEs in England https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/620825/SFR25_2017_MainText.pdf So, Scotland has 10% of the population but 11.3% of the teachers.
   12. How do the pupil teacher ratios compare? From the same sources, we get 13.6 to 1 in Scotland, 15 to one in English secondaries and 20 to 1 in primaries. So, not surprisingly, Scotland has a better pupil teacher ratio
   13. What percentage of the total number of teachers in Scotland do the 670 unfilled posts represent? It’s a tiny 1.3% so in most primary schools with say 20 staff, there are typically no vacancies and in a secondary school with maybe 50 to 80 staff there may be 1 or 2 vacancies. Crisis? I think not.

See me in Room 101 after today’s Ethics lecture.

 

Photo: TGS

From Energy Voice, yesterday:

‘The Erland Wild West 3D seismic survey project has started today in the west of Shetland region of the North Sea. The basin was a place of significant interest for big oil firms such as BP, Total and Shell who took a number of blocks during the recent 30th Offshore Licencing Round. The survey will reportedly cover an area of more than 621 miles of the West of Shetland basin. Total, Siccar Point, BP, Chrysaor, Shell and Parkmead all picked up licences west of Shetland in a licencing round that could have the potential to unlock 320 million barrels of previously stranded oil.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/178277/wild-west-of-shetland-seismic-project-gets-underway/

Development west of Shetland, is already massive and will increase and prolong Scotland’s potential revenue well into the middle of this century. See:

‘Boom in Production from Giant [Kraken] Shetland Field Spurs Oil Industry’

Another North Sea Oil development begins production. It’s called the Western Isles platform and it’s 100 miles east of Shetland – I know, misplaced, but at least it’s a better name than Lancaster, Loyal or Bombardier!

Total begins to make massive profits from Scotland’s oilfields west of Shetland

Dunfermline-based firm secures contract to supply subsea equipment for huge oilfield west of Shetland

Another oil major reports record production in the first half of the year boosted by the Solan field off Shetland

£290 billion of tax revenue still in the North Sea and much more to the west of Shetland

More signs of massive oil expectations in Scotland’s waters west of Shetland and the Chinese market is desperate for it

Estimates of Scotland’s oil reserves West of Shetland now massively increased to around 8 billion barrels! ‘A super-resource now on the cards.’

 

(‘Strongman skirt party’) (c) visitstpeteclearwater.com

From Scottish Field on 2^nd August:

‘The Seasonal Experiences Trend Index, announced by TripAdvisor, the world’s largest provider of bookable tours and activities, reveals the must-visit attractions for summer, based on year-over-year booking activity on the site. The firm announced the top 10 for the UK, with Scotland taking three of the slots- including the top two positions. With a 479% increase, taking top slot is the Loch Ness, Highlands and Whisky Distillery Day Tour from Edinburgh. Taking second place, with a 260% rise, is the Skip-the-Line Edinburgh Castle Walking Tour. And in eighth place, with a 200% rise is the One-Hour Real Mary King’s Close Underground Tour in Edinburgh.’

https://www.scottishfield.co.uk/travel/scotland-travel/scotland-takes-top-two-slots-in-tripadvisor-summer-poll/

Tourism is, of course, booming across Scotland. See these earlier posts for more:

Humungous 45% increase in Scotch Whisky tourism!

Glasgow and Edinburgh push London into third place in tourism hotspots survey

Scottish tourism growth outpaces that in UK

‘BLOODY HELL Robert the Bruce movie Outlaw King will feature some of the bloodiest battle scenes in cinema history’, put Braveheart in the shade and boost tourism like Outlander.

Glasgow wins two first places in global tourism awards and comes 4th out of 50!

‘Scotland enjoys tourism boost thanks to interest in Gaelic’

North Americans lead surge in Scottish tourism because they feel safer here

Massive increase in spending by international visitors to Glasgow

Spending by tourists in Scotland soars by infinitely more than in non-Scottish parts of UK!

And my favourite:

Massive increase in Chinese visitors to Edinburgh NOT attributed to weak pound and attracted by ‘Strongman skirt parties’

 

 

(c) LAWDonut

From Insider today:

‘The number of larger businesses in Scotland failing has fallen by more than half in the last quarter compared to the same period last year, according to new figures from KPMG. Administrations – which normally involve larger companies – fell by 63% (10 down from 26) and compared to the previous three months in 2018, decreased by one third (10 down from 15).’

Insolvencies affecting smaller businesses were up 8% but this represents ‘normal attrition rates’ and need not imply a worrying trend over a longer period.

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/insolvencies-scotland-kpmg-administration-figures-13026618

For more on the relative strength of the Scottish economy, see:

See this Douglas? Business investment in Scotland up 250%!

Scottish Business Strength No.77: Small Scottish construction firms’ growth up 17%

Scottish small businesses still more confident than those in non-Scottish parts

Business activity soars to four-year high across manufacturing and service

Business confidence in Scotland soars by 24% while it sinks 29% in non-Scottish parts of UK

Scottish businesses more likely to be stable than those in rest of UK: News from a parallel universe unknown to our mainstream media

Scottish Government supports economy with new business rates unique in UK

Scottish business confidence higher than in any other region of UK

.

 

(c) Spare Room

(You’d have to be Barking and Dagenham to pay this rent!)

In the Guardian today:

‘The situation is worst in Barking and Dagenham, according to the official data analysed by Shelter, where average rents have jumped 42% between 2011 and 2017 while average household wages have only gone up 2%. Elmbridge in Surrey was the local authority area with the second biggest gap, with rents rising 21% while wages have dropped 15%. In Bristol, rents have climbed 44% while wages are only up 12%; in Cambridge, rents have increased 36% against a 9% rise for wages. In Tunbridge Wells in Kent, rents are 19% higher while wages are down 9%; in Milton Keynes rents are up 29% and wages have risen 3%.’

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/aug/03/soaring-rents-rose-60-faster-than-pay-since-2011-shelter

So, typically, rents rising around 30-40% faster than wages?

For clarification, I’m suggesting, hard evidence-free admittedly, that these parts of England are more non-Scottish, in terms of dominant values and access to affordable housing, than other parts to the North.

What’s the situation in SNP Scotland, Scotsman?

‘UK and Scottish Government figures show the median weekly wage in Scotland rose from £396 to £442 between 2012 and 2017 – an increase of 12 per cent. The average rent for a two-bedroom property rose from £553 to £643 over the same period – a rise of 16 per cent.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/rent-in-scotland-rising-faster-than-wages-labour-says-in-cap-call-1-4724378

So, rents rising 4% faster than wages? Not good but not anywhere near as bad?

Why is it better in SNP Scotland, BBC Scotland?

‘New dawn’ for Scottish private renters.  Major changes [by the SNP government] to the law have come into effect for Scotland’s 760,000 private renters. The private residential tenancy rules will bring an end to fixed-term rentals, meaning leases will effectively be open-ended. Rent increases can only be made once every 12 months, and tenants who believe them to be unfair can take them to a rent officer. Shelter Scotland described the change as a “new dawn” for private renters.’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-42179428

A ‘To-the-point’ report? Actually, I’m a wee bit tired.

 

(c) Herald

It’s a bit rich after months of sitting back watching the Yoon media and parties attack the baby box initiative, for the RCM to start raving about it now. Remember Kezia’s sourpuss reaction  – ‘This looks like a massive missed opportunity’ – and these headlines, including the Sun’s ridiculous expert warning that the cardboard box could burn if left near to an unguarded flame!

Concerns raised over baby box safety by expert – The Scotsman

Parents snub the box part of SNP’s baby box | HeraldScotland

Cot death expert claims SNP’s free baby boxes … – The Scottish Sun

Yesterday, across Scotland’s mainstream media, the RCM call was headlining. From STV:

‘The Royal College of Midwives has published a new position statement setting out its support for universal roll-out.  It says the boxes can be a “positive significant investment” in early years and may contribute to reducing inequality. Baby boxes were made available to all expectant mothers in Scotland from August last year.’

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1425638-midwives-call-for-universal-baby-box-roll-out-across-uk/

The baby boxes are, of course just part of wider Scottish Government strategy to improve the circumstances of the newborn and of their parents. See:

Even more evidence of becoming a better nation as Scottish Government moves to end upfront childcare deposits

NHS Scotland first to be 100% Baby Friendly

 

The free bus pass, along with free prescriptions and other universal benefits, has been criticised for providing a benefit which many do not actually need and thus wasting taxation revenue which might be spent on more needy causes.

Typically, media sources have made much of the increasing cost of the scheme from £159 million in 2006 to £202 million in 2018 but have forgotten (?) to take inflation into account. The costs have increased by 27% yet inflation has increased by 40% suggesting that costs have actually fallen in real terms.

The Scottish Government has, however, decided to retain the age of eligibility for the benefit at 60, unlike in England where it will be increased to 65 by 2020.

The scheme will now be extended to include those travelling with eligible disabled children under five and a further extension for modern apprentices is to be considered.

The argument in favour of universal, as opposed to selective or means-tested, benefits was well made in 2012 by the Jimmy Reid Foundation, starting with this:

‘The emerging political argument at the present to both undermine first universal benefits and then by association progressive taxation is that rich and middle-class people are getting benefits that they don’t need (for example free bus passes, free prescriptions, free tertiary education).  An easy and straightforward argument for progressive tax is that higher taxes for richer people compensates for their access to these benefits. This is an argument we give up at our peril.’

The JRF study then gave these statements, derived from strong evidence, in defence of universal benefits:

1. Moving from universalism to selectivity increases social and economic inequality and diminishes rather than enhances the status of the poor
2. Selectivity requires process and procedures that separate benefit recipients from the rest of society, increasing stigmatisation and reducing take-up
3. Universalism is incredibly efficient – the selective element of pension entitlement is more than 50 times more inefficient than the universal element measured in terms of fraud and error alone and without even taking into account the cost of administration.
4. In economic terms universalism is clearly shown to deliver Merit Goods (things we all benefit from) and Public Goods (things that could not be delivered without collectiveprovision) which selectivity simply cannot deliver.
5. The economic impact of universalism is much greater than the economic impact ofselectivity because of the multiplier profile of expenditure
6. It also creates positive economic stability by mitigating the swings in the business cycle and creating much more economic independence among the population.
7. On virtually every possible measure of social and economic success, all league tables are topped by societies with strong universal welfare states

http://reidfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/The-Case-for-Universalism.pdf

I’m not aware of any persuasive counter-argument to the above.

(c) Visit Scotland

OK, it’s our plants that are doing the work here but they’re Scottish plants aren’t they? Oh, OK lots of them are Canadian or Scandinavian but ‘we’ planted them and they’re part of our ‘capital’.

From an ONS report, three days ago, titled, ‘UK air pollution removal: how much pollution does vegetation remove in your area?’, see this table:

	Pollution Removed (kg)
	SO2	O3	NO2	NH3	PM10	PM2.5
England	52,455,047	645,781,019	61,506,236	34,836,802	19,954,263	11,949,905
Scotland	13,807,376	374,910,673	8,910,305	7,918,132	14,609,396	6,320,170
Wales	6,490,633	99,067,872	4,887,410	4,712,166	4,495,873	2,389,691
N Ireland	3,650,441	58,179,811	2,115,496	5,836,153	1,817,582	938,369
Total	76,403,496	###########	77,419,448	53,303,253	40,877,113	21,598,135

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/articles/ukairpollutionremovalhowmuchpollutiondoesvegetationremoveinyourarea/2018-07-30

You can see, quickly, that Scotland’s plants help filter a high percentage of the pollutants affecting Britain but it’s with regard to the most dangerous ones, PM10 and PM2.5, that our plants do the most to help. See this from the same report:

‘Due to their small size, PM_2.5 can stay in the air longer than heavier particles, increasing the likelihood of inhalation. This can be damaging to human health as they can bypass the nose and throat and penetrate deep into the lungs, triggering chronic disease such as asthma, heart disease, bronchitis, and other respiratory problems. While 88% of the value of avoided health damage costs are attributable to the removal of PM_2.5, this pollutant accounts for less than 2% of the physical volume of pollution removed from the atmosphere.’

To put this in context, in 2015:

• Only 20% of PM2.5 was removed by vegetation
• Across the UK around £1 billion in health costs was saved by the plant filtration
• There were 7 100 fewer lung and heart-related admissions
• 27 000 fewer life years lost
• 1 900 fewer premature deaths

More 8%, but non-plant-based, stories:

8% of the population, nearly 9% of the exports but only 5.25% of the imports

Return of the meme? Only 8% of the population but Scotland has 21.7% of all independent renewable projects in the UK

Still 8% of the population but now 30% of UK food and drink exports?

8% of the UK population and 28% of living wage employers. More evidence that we are different enough to want to run the whole show?

With only 8% of the population, Scotland’s maritime sector accounts for 25% of the UK maritime sector’s (GVA) contribution to the economy and is 17.5% more productive than the UK marine oil and gas sector. Once more, too wee, too poor?

Once again, it’s the ‘8% of the UK population but much more of something good’ meme. This time it’s 33% of employee-owned firms in the UK

 

I’ve been banging on about this for some time now. While it’s not a necessary condition for us to want independence are we different enough as community, including those born elsewhere, even in England (😊), to further justify the claim in terms of difference. It’s a concept that BBC Scotland love to challenge when they can so this from their own website, might have given them pause for thought:

‘More than half of Scotland’s population have registered to donate their organs or tissue after their death – the highest rate in Britain. Figures show that more than 2,724,000 Scottish residents are registered on the UK Organ Donor Register.’

For balance of course, they quickly reminded us not to get too cocky with:

‘Approximately 550 people in Scotland are waiting for an organ transplant, which could save or transform their lives.’

On the website, they found time and space for this comparative comment below:

‘On 4 July there were 2,724,358 people in Scotland on the UK Organ Donor Register – 50.4% of the population. The UK average on 31 March was 38%.’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-45022265

The broadcast versions of the report found no time for the comparative percentages but plenty for interviews with patients in hospitals. Why didn’t they report the percentages?

Anyhow, back to the concept of ‘difference’. On its own, a higher level of organ donation might suggest but not prove anything. When, however, you add, higher charitable donations, stronger support for ethical shopping, many more living wage-employers, much less racial hate crime, less violent crime, civic nationalism in contrast to England’s ethnic nationalism, opposition to fox hunting, support for progressive politics, greater kindness toward refugees and less-violent prisons, does it add up to something more tangible?

See these for detail:

Scottish Nationalism is a very different and a better thing than English/British Nationalism and, at last, BBC Scotland seems to have faced up to the fact.

BBC News tries to spread knife crime crisis into Scotland to tell us: ‘You’re no different. Don’t get any ideas!’

SNP moves to finally put an end to foxes’agony being ripped apart by hounds as the English Tories plan a return to the unspeakable business. Different again?

8% of the UK population and 28% of living wage employers. More evidence that we are different enough to want to run the whole show?

Racial hate crimes increase by 33% in England & Wales while falling by 10% in Scotland: Who says we’re not different?

Young Syrian refugees happier in Scotland than in the non-Scottish parts of the UK. More evidence of difference?

Why are prison officers staying in post in Scotland as they flee the tide of violence and self-harm in England and Wales?

Another wee difference as Scottish consumers seem more willing to pay more for ethical goods?

8% of the population but 11.8% of the charitable donations – ‘punching above our weight?’

Have ten years of progressive SNP policies made Scots more optimistic?