Talking-up Scotland

While it seems clear that SNP support in the EU elections will dip a bit due to a small protest vote by some supporters this seems unlikely to have any longer-term effect on Westminster voting intentions. The Opinium sub-poll for 8^th May gives

• Con 22%
• Lab 12%
• Lib 7%
• UKIP 4%
• SNP 41%
• Green 2%
• Chuka 1%
• Brexit 13%

Though this suggest a fall from the around 45% figure being recorded in the months before the launch of the Brexit Party, 41% was the steady figure poll after poll before that and, of course, will be enough for an almost complete wipe-out of the other parties. Interestingly, Flavible Politics used the above data to predict 53 SNP and maybe 3 Lib Dems. Do the strong winds in the Northern Isles blow away the stench of Carmichael?

For the European election the results we get are:

• Con 14%
• Lab 11%
• Lib 8%
• UKIP 4%
• SNP 40%
• Green 5%
• Chuka 1%
• Brexit 16%    

So, the hit caused by Brexit looks like being taken by the Tories and Labour. Flavible read this to mean the SNP would take 3 of the 6 EU seats with 1 each for Lab, Con and Brex.

https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-8th-may-2019/

 

I imagine Gordon Brewer watched Andrew Marr failing to land a punch on Farage and thought, ‘Politicians are betraying democracy? That will be a good opener for my interrogation later of the other John Smith girl and that woman who was in the jungle.’

She didn’t like it and nipped him politely. Doesn’t he know her dad’s a saint and her sister is his boss?

Kathryn Smith, sister of Sarah, State Broadcaster (Scotland Region) News Supremo, and Kezia Dugdale were there to talk about the John Smith Centre for Neo-Liberal Economics, US Foreign Policy Support and Befriending the Tories, which will ‘restore faith in Scottish politics.’ Even Gordon was a bit skeptical about that but didn’t go so far as to suggest viewers would be better off with the Jimmy Reid Foundation. I would.

Kezia looked happy in her new family show, McDynasty, where she plays the ‘Poisoned Dafty’, and will, I feel sure, bring her much-needed, post-Labour, pest-toleration aptitude to the project.

Smith did, however, pull out a big one aimed at converting any doubters watching, when she told us her dad liked Tory PM John Major quite a bit and would often retire together with him to have tea and talk about how Labour was now ready to betray the working people in return for job security. There should be more of that! Kezia nods.

Can I be critical of the beatified John Smith? I can, of course, but should I? Well I don’t need to. See these three telling extracts from a Guardian obituary:

Smith impressed Hugh Gaitskell, who heard him at a May Day rally in Glasgow in 1963 – not only because he spoke well but because he already exuded the level-headed pragmatism of the Labour right.

Smith qualified as an advocate in 1967 and subsequently was involved in some of Scotland’s biggest trials. He defended one of the men involved in the notorious ‘ice cream wars’, during which a family of six were burned to death in an arson attack. Smith ‘s client escaped with a three-year sentence.

The other side of his character which was perhaps not clear to the general public was his enormous self-confidence. He was the sort of man of whom it is said that he thought he could walk on water. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/1994/may/13/obituaries.past

John Smith Centre for Public Service? Aye right!

 

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1127251540505395202

Latest Opinium poll for 8^th May puts SNP at 52/53 Westminster MPs, up 17/18 with Lib Dems taking the other 3/4. Flavible Politics have mapped it for us (above).

Clearly there are big reservations in applying a general swing based on a small sample but it’s still fun running your mouse over the map to see some names apparently losing badly. The survival of Carmichael is less fun or plausible I’d say.

I’m a bit unsure of this without seeing the data. Let me know if you can get it.

 

From Ludo:

 

Latest figures show that in 2018, Scottish-registered fishing vessels landed 445 thousand tonnes of sea fish and shellfish with a value of £572 million. This represents an decrease of 20 thousand tonnes[1] (4%) and an increase of £12 million (no significant change in real terms) from 2017.

There were 2,087 active Scottish registered fishing vessels in 2018, an increase of 1% from 2017. The number of fishers working on these vessels was 4,857, which is 58 (1%) higher than in 2017 (4,799).

Scottish fishing fleet
The number of active Scottish registered fishing vessels in 2018 was 2,087, an increase of 19 vessels (1%) from 2017. The change in vessel numbers was
largely due to 20 additional creelers of under 10m.

At the end of 2018, the number of vessels in:

• The under 10m fleet increased by 32 to 1,538 vessels

• The 10 metre and over fleet decreased by 13 to 549 vessels

In keeping with other European nations, the Scottish fishing fleet has generally been reducing in number over the past ten years, down 89 vessels (4%) in 2018 compared to 2009. There have been changes in composition of the fleet, with 144 fewer 10m and over vessels and an increase of 55 under-10m vessels, which are primarily engaged in creeling.

Employment
In 2018, the overall number of fishers working on Scottish fishing vessels was reported at 4,857, which is 1% up on the figure reported in 2017. However, the number of regularly employed fishers increased by 100 (3%), irregularly employed fishers decreased by 41 (5%) and the number of crofters reported decreased from 6 to 5. This shift from irregular to regular employment continues the differences seen in 2017.

Ten Year Trends
Compared to 2009, in 2018 the tonnage of fish landed was up 18% and real terms value was up 11%.

NOTE the 10 year trends (during the SNP Scottish Govt terms – and the much maligned (by tories) EU Common Fisheries Policy) – since 2009 there has been an increase in tonnage of 18% and in value of 11%.

NOTE the increase In smaller vessels eg creelers. (These smaller vessels often represent directly involved family businesses rather than the large international corporations and rentier groups).

NOTE the increase in regularly employed fishers and decrease in the irregularly employed fishers. Again, indicative of parts of the fisheries being gradually restored to directly involved family businesses rather than the international rentier corporations.

Slow, difficult changes to engineer and push forward – but, under the SNP Scottish Govt (and the EU Common Fisheries for all its various faults), some real progress is being achieved.

https://news.gov.scot/news/provisional-scottish-sea-fisheries-statistics-2018

 

(c) DIGIT

From Government EUROPA yesterday:

‘The UK’s Department for International Trade (DIT) has announced the Scottish space sector is projected to be worth up to £4 billion (€4.63 billion) by 2030. Scotland’s space industry comprises a significant proportion of space endeavours in the UK as a whole, valued at £15 billion (€17.37 billion); and is growing at a rate of 3.3 per cent per annum. Nearly 20 per cent of the UK’s 41,900 space sector jobs are based in Scotland.’

Others from the 8% meme:

8% of the population but 20% of the electricity production: How Scotland subsidises Britain’s green power ‘achievement’

8% of the population and 34% of the natural resources

 

8% of the population but 28.5% of the wind-powered electricity

 

Return of the meme! 8% of the population but 38% of the food and drink exports. How would Scotland survive?

Herald ‘writer’ fails two tests in one headline about teachers who seem less stressed than many of the rest of you

You’ll have guessed, I’m sure that ‘nearly half of teachers’ is not remotely true and putting speech marks around the whole headline would make it more accurate but still useless.

The Herald piece opens with:

‘Nearly half of Scottish teachers have seen a medical professional in the last year as a result of stress and workload, according to a survey. A poll by the NASUWT teaching union also found one in ten teachers had been prescribed anti-depressants to help them cope, while seven per cent have increased their reliance on prescription drugs.’

I’ll come to the ‘nearly half’ claim but I was immediately struck by the NASUWT (Mainly English members?) claim of ‘one in ten.’ In 2018, research for the Guardian suggested that ‘1 in 6 people have been prescribed anti-depressants.’

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/aug/10/four-million-people-in-england-are-long-term-users-of-antidepressants

‘Teachers much less likely to be stressed than average person!’

As for the ‘nearly half’, once more it’s a tiny self-selecting sample:

‘Nearly half (46%) experienced anxiety, depression or stress’

https://www.nasuwt.org.uk/article-listing/violence-against-teachers-weekly-occurrence.html

That ‘or stress’ bit throws the whole assertion into doubt, without even seeing the question asked, as to its seriousness. Doesn’t every employee feel some stress? Are there jobs with no stress at all? Not unless you’re a psychopath.

The NASUWT has around 300 000 members across the UK. 5 000 responded. So, we have a typically unreliable self-selecting sample heavily biased in favour of those who do feel anxiety, depression or stress. So, 1.66% responded and 46% of them experienced anxiety, depression or stress’ giving us 0.76%. Statistically this is just useless on both sampling validity and size.

Further evidence putting teacher anxiety, depression and stress can be found here:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3034883/

On the basis of the above, teaching professionals have only a slightly higher (15%) prevalence than the average (13%) but this is lower than for several others. Notably, the study also found lack of job security, to be a major factor, regardless of occupational role. This is of course not a common risk factor among teachers, in comparison to many other occupations.

Useful evidence for the specifically Scottish context is below:

SHOCK: Scotland has 35% more teachers per capita than Tory England and 46% more than Labour Wales!

As the Scottish NoMedia are fed on imagined subject shortages, we see the remarkable facts on the somewhat more important matter of how many teachers we actually have to teach those subjects properly and in manageable class sizes. These data…

27% fewer Scottish teachers applying for retirement due to ill-health

In a Freedom of Information request from an anonymous source: https://www.gov.scot/publications/foi-19-00473/ Could the source have been hoping for a trend going the other way? Regardless of the Scottish Labour Branch led EIS action, the above data merely confirms a wide…

New Scottish teachers 8 times more likely to stay than those in Tory England

In the Independent today: ‘Nearly three in five teachers in only their first year in the profession are already not convinced that they will stay in teaching – and rising mental health problems are partly to blame, research finds. The…

Scotland has far fewer pupils for every teacher

Once more we’re grateful to a Tory MSP, trawling for bad news with a parliamentary question, but stumbling on good news we can report. See this from Tom Mason (Tory MSP) with reply from SNP minister John Swinney

 

Miles Briggs asks the SG:

https://www.parliament.scot/S5ChamberOffice/WA20190508.pdf

As a ‘Compassionate Tory’ (Ho ho) with an interest in human rights, I feel sure he’ll like this:

A warning for Scotland’s 100% IVF post-Brexit: How moneygrubbing Tory IVF policies are creating massive distress now in England

Maybe it’s too much to expect Miles to follow me but, wait that feels a bit creepy scary. Anyhow, see these admittedly quite rare reports on IVF:

NHS Scotland’s IVF triumph

100% of eligible patients are screened within the target time. The target has now been met without fail for nearly five years. The wider benefits for the mental health of women affected is immense. In England % Wales the…

Worlds apart: IVF, mental health and exploitation in England and Scotland

In the Independent today: ‘A couple who had IVF treatment which was paid for by friends from a Facebook group have given birth to a girl. Marisha Chaplin, 26, and Jon Hibbs, 29, already have a daughter through IVF but…

A kinder and wiser approach to IVF treatment in Scotland: Meeting targets and reducing mental health complications

Note: This is a heavily recycled piece from May in the light of recent NHS Scotland figures. From ISD on 28th August 2018: ‘The four IVF centres in Scotland screened 373 eligible patients, compared with 370 in the previous quarter.…

A warning for Scotland’s 100% IVF post-Brexit: How moneygrubbing Tory IVF policies are creating massive distress now in England

How IVF became a licence to print money. As we tumble toward a hard Brexit and trade deals with the USA allowing the private sector into the heart of the NHS, we can see how things will work…

IVF treatment in Scotland above target at 100% for more than 3 years, as only 12% of English boards offer the full treatment, triggering consequent mental health costs

From ISD on 29th May 2018: ‘The four IVF centres in Scotland screened 370 eligible patients, compared with 362 in the previous quarter. 100% of patients were screened for IVF treatment within 365 days. The 90% target continues…

IVF in NHS Scotland: 100% provision and 100% screened within target time, reducing risks and costs of consequent mental health problems for many

In the quarter ending 31st December 2017, 100% of patients were screened for IVF treatment within 365 days. The 90% target has now been met since reporting started three years ago. All of these patients receive three full cycles of…

 

https://grousebeater.wordpress.com/2016/04/19/the-snps-achievements/

 

From Energy Voice today:

‘An oil and gas sector deal bid — submitted last year by a group of industry bodies — predicted a total spend of £176 million “had the potential” to deliver £110 billion for the UK economy between now and 2035, with Scotland being a main beneficiary.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/199021/oil-and-gas-sector-deal-unlikely/

Perhaps another reason is because they don’t plan to tax the oil industry too much in case they offend their Eton chums or because some of us think Scotland might become rich after independence? It’s clear that they have not done so in the past. See this from Platform London:

‘Platform’s research, compiled into a simple infographic, shows that:

• Britain only receives a fraction of the oil revenues that Norway receives. In 2010, the state revenue per barrel in Norway was $48.50; in Britain it was only $21.50 – less than half.
• The value of Scotland’s proven reserves per UK resident under the current fiscal regime is $1,020. If an independent Scotland mirrored Norway’s tax & ownership structure over oil, the value would be $27,479 per Scottish resident.
• The lax tax regime allows corporations to make enormous profits, at the expense of the public purse. Profitability for UK Continental Shelf companies is generally at least three times that of non-UKCS companies. In 2008 Q2, the net rate of return for North Sea oil companies reached 62.6%, while non-oil companies were at 12.2%. In 2013 Q4 the UK Continental Shelf companies’ net rate of return was 30.4%, while non-oil companies rate of return was 11%.
• Cashflow from the North Sea is used to subsidise drilling elsewhere in the world.
• In the six years from 2002 until 2008, Britain missed out on £74 billion in oil revenues, compared to if it had applied the Norwegian model. This could have covered five years of cuts to legal aid, the NHS, pension credit, child benefit, the arts, sports and public transport. Alternatively, £74 billion spent in Scotland could have provide Scotland with 10 new mega-hospitals like the South Glasgow Hospital and 1,000 new GP clinics, with 10,000 new doctors and 20,000 new nurses to staff them. As well as a renewable energy project in every community, a community centre in every village and a solar panel on every home, to enable a decentralised and democratically-owned energy system. And a high-speed rail between Edinburgh and Glasgow, 10 new railway lines in Scotland and free local bus services. And free state childcare for pre-schoolers, a return to grants for higher education students and a citizen’s income for all Scottish residents of £5,200 per year.

If Scotland gains full control over its energy resources, whether through independence or devolution-max +energy, it could follow the Norwegian model, rather than replicating the UK fiscal regime.
* Norway is a comparable oil province to the UK Continental Shelf.
* The UK does not have higher costs; investment in Norwegian offshore drilling has been consistently higher than in the UK.
* Norway’s fiscal regime is not a deterrent to investment. According to the Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum, it is “designed to be neutral, so that an investment project that is profitable before tax will also be profitable after tax.”

https://platformlondon.org/scotland/

In the Independent today:

‘More people will die of preventable cancers and heart conditions because of the government’s failure to address “appalling” flaws in screening programmes, experts have warned. A damning report by MPs on the Public Accounts Committee found not one adult screening programme in England met its minimum target for health checks.’

Some will tell me that comparisons between England and Scotland are meaningless or, in cases such as this, insensitive. I know and sort of agree but in this propaganda war for Scotland’s future away from dysfunctional Great Britain, all is fair? So, for speed of response, see these recent TuS report suggesting there is at least something to be pleased with in terms of cancer treatment here:

NHS Scotland hits 31 day cancer waiting time target for third time in a row despite massive demand

In the quarter ending December 2018, 94.9% of patients started treatment in 31 days from decision to treat, hitting the demanding 95% target. The 0.1% deficit is not statistically reliable and should be rounded up using BBC Scotland’s editorial…

LATEST: 96.1% of Lymphoma blood cancer cases treated within target time

Thanks to Miles Briggs, again, we see another indicator of how well NHS Scotland is performing under this SNP administration. Notably, the median wait is only 35 days and the median wait…

Bias by extreme selection as BBC Scotland seriously distort your view on cancer care several times a day

Earlier in the day, we heard the fact that ‘the vast majority of’ or ‘95%’ of cancer patients expressing positivity about their care, could be presented by Reporting Scotland, as merely ‘most.’ It was a clear attempt to continue a…

Reporting Scotland describes 95% of cancer patients being positive as only ‘MOST being happy’

95% of Scottish cancer patients, ‘the vast majority’ are positive about their experience despite a massive increase in demand. Reporting Scotland chose to replace the statistic with the word ‘most’. Technically correct they’ll insist but given that 51% is ‘most’…

Reporting Scotland demonstrate how to fake a connection between NHS Tayside and Breast Cancer Deaths

Reporting Scotland returned tonight to their reporting on NHS Tayside’s treatment of breast cancer patients. The report contained no inaccuracies but through the sequencing of the information presented, created a causal connection not made by the Review Group report which…

NHS Scotland’s continually improving cancer treatment figures

Note: These are the latest such figures published today. As Reporting Scotland determinedly attempts to shake NHS Scotland to death, like a demented Border Terrier (other breeds are available), reliable statistics emerge to paint a different picture. You can…