Talking-up Scotland

The diagram above: ‘presents output per hour for the manufacturing and services industries in the UK economy by each of the regions, taking into account the total hours worked in each region.’

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labourproductivity/bulletins/labourproductivity/apriltojune2018

You can see that manufacturing productivity in Scotland is the second highest and services productivity is third, in the UK. However, it seems that the financial sector is far from being the ‘golden goose’ it is often portrayed as and might be better described as a ‘cuckoo’ in the UK economic nest. See this from Professor Richard Murphy on 5^th October 2018:

‘We all need finance, but only up to a point. Once a financial centre grows above its useful size and roles, it starts to become predatory and harms the economy that hosts it. This happens in many ways: an oversized City drains our best educated and most talented people out of manufacturing and other economic sectors, generates large economic distortions and financial crises, and many of its members focus on devising ever more creative ways to extract wealth from other parts of the economy.  A new report The UK’s Finance Curse? Costs and Processes by Andrew Baker of Sheffield University, Professor Gerald Epstein of the University of Massachusetts Amherst, and Juan Montecino of Columbia University, published by the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Sheffield, reveals that the UK has suffered a £4.5 trillion cumulative cost in lost economic output from 1995-2015 – and counting. That is equivalent to a £170,000 loss per British household.’

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2018/10/05/the-finance-curse-the-new-book-from-nick-shaxson/

The full academic paper can be found here.

 

(c) Getty

From the BBC Scotland website with only two wee ‘buts’, excised:

‘Scottish recruitment agencies have reported the sharpest rise in permanent staff appointments since July 2014. The latest Royal Bank of Scotland Report on Jobs found growth in placements outpaced the UK as a whole last month…..Meanwhile, job openings in Scotland continued to rise last month, with permanent vacancies increasing markedly and at the quickest pace in three months. Agencies also reported an increase in short-term vacancies at the end of the third quarter.’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-45745361

I wonder, is that the first good news about business we’ve had recently. Let me check my records. Ah, only these:

Scottish business confidence well above UK average

SNP blamed as private businesses experience too much demand and overcrowding with new staff second only to Labour-mayored London.

SNP accused of standing-back as business confidence slumps to 15-month low in non-Scottish parts of the UK

Scottish business confidence stays high…Ah but!..Oh shut up Revoking Scotland!

63% fall in large business insolvencies as Scottish economy reveals strength

See this Douglas? Business investment in Scotland up 250%!

Scottish Business Strength No.77: Small Scottish construction firms’ growth up 17%

Scottish small businesses still more confident than those in non-Scottish parts

Business activity soars to four-year high across manufacturing and service

Business confidence in Scotland soars by 24% while it sinks 29% in non-Scottish parts of UK

Scottish businesses more likely to be stable than those in rest of UK: News from a parallel universe unknown to our mainstream media

Scottish Government supports economy with new business rates unique in UK

Scottish business confidence higher than in any other region of UK

Sorry, that’s all.

Footnote: You’ll not be surprised that there’s bad news to be found if you look for it. Employers are having to work harder to attract new staff and have to pay more to get them so that’s bad news clearly….unless you’re an employee?

In its regular series ‘Early Morning Scares for the Vulnerable’, to be taken 9 times every day, today’s episode was:

‘BME people get worse mental health service’

Based as always on a scientific sample of something like ‘some of those who work in the community’ and who have spoken to BBC Scotland, they were able to claim:

‘Black and minority ethnic (BME) groups in Scotland face unequal access to mental health services, people working in the community have told the BBC. They said a lack of targeted support also resulted in worse treatment options. Consultant psychiatrist Prof Sashi Sashidharan said there was a huge gap in the data available on ethnicity.’

Leaving aside the prof’s apparent disregard for the discriminatory nature of collecting data on ethnicity alongside that on health concerns, the report lacks the required evidence-base, beyond the usual anecdotal sources.

As a consequence of their failure to research the topic properly, BBC Scotland find themselves making incorrect comments such as:

‘They said that meant more people were being sectioned or experiencing more extreme forms of psychiatric treatment.’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-45565034

As often before, quite speedy searching finds proper research which contradicts the BBC report.

I am of course not doubting the sincerity of the doctors interviewed nor the probability that discrimination against minorities extends into this area too, but I am, as ever, doubting BBC Scotland’s motives and their competence.

‘Fundamental facts about mental health 2016’ by the Mental Health Foundation, based on extensive studies by recognised researchers, provides us with reliable evidence and it often contradicts the BBC report.

https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/publications/fundamental-facts-about-mental-health-2016

Fewer people being sectioned in Scotland?

With regard to the claim of more BME people being sectioned and experiencing more extreme forms of treatment, see this:

‘Between 2014 and 2015, there has been an increase in the total number of people admitted under the Mental Health Act. In England this increased by 10% and in Wales, it increased by 14% while Northern Ireland and Scotland saw a decrease of 0.9472 and 5.7% respectively.’ (p73)

So, were the sources doctors who had worked in NHS England, where such practice may well be increasing?

Better organisation of mental health care in Scotland?

So, there is a marked trend in Scotland toward reduced admission, including sectioning, in Scotland, contrary to the trend elsewhere in the UK. Why might this be? See this:

‘Improving Access to Psychological Therapies. The IAPT programme was launched in 2008 with the aim of improving the quality and accessibility of mental health services in the UK by focusing on providing improved access to psychological treatments – primarily talking therapies (e.g. CBT, counselling and self-help support). IAPT pathways vary in each of the devolved nations. For instance, Scotland has set Local Delivery Plan Standards for NHS boards to increase access to psychological therapies.’ (p74)

Is the situation in NHS Scotland once more in advance of the non-Scottish parts?

What about funding of Mental Health care in Scotland?

‘In 2015, Community Care reported that the funding across mental health NHS trusts dropped by 8.25%, in real terms, between 2010–11 and 2014–15.586 In addition, according to a BBC Freedom of Information request published in 2016, the funding for mental health in the UK has fallen by only 2% from 2013–14 to 2014–15. For 2015, mental health spending in Scotland has increased by just 0.1% and is projected [by whom?] to fall by 0.4% in 2016. In contrast, spending in Wales decreased by 1.1% in 2014–15 and is expected to rise by 1.2% in 2015–16.’ (p88)

So, under SNP government, the funding of mental health care has been sustained against a background of falling funding elsewhere in the UK.

https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/publications/fundamental-facts-about-mental-health-2016

 

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Waiting-Times/Publications/2018-10-02/2018-10-02-Cancellations-Summary.pdf?57555788756

Cancellations of planned operations, in particular those for non-clinical or capacity reasons, have returned to the downward trend after a one-month glitch much enjoyed by our Nomedia and their partner Loyalist politicians. See:

I have no more recent update on the figures for non-Scottish parts so, in the Independent, 7 September 2018, the headline:

‘One in seven major operations in UK cancelled on day of surgery, data shows’

suggested the usual Anglo-centric journalism conflating figures for England with the UK. One in seven is 14.3%. However, the article was reporting on an apparently UK-wide snapshot of cancellations in one-week in the Spring 2018 period:

‘Their study is published in the wake of a record winter crisis where in the first three months of 2018, 25,475 operations were cancelled on the day they were scheduled to take place in England alone (!) – the highest since records began. This is despite hospitals being told [in England] to pre-emptively cancel thousands of non-urgent operations to minimise same-day cancellations and focus resources on urgent cases.  For their research the RCA and UCL compiled data from an unparalleled 93 per cent of hospitals in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and built a seven-day snap shot of surgeries that took place between 21 and 27 March.’

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-operations-cancelled-winter-crisis-surgery-patient-waiting-times-a8526171.html

No breakdown of the figures for England, N Ireland, Scotland and Wales is offered. I’ve found accessing such increasingly difficult with researchers telling me there were no significant differences between the four areas but not being willing to release them. Hmmm.

Operations cancellations in Scotland

Direct comparisons cannot be made but, as you can see in the above chart, cancellations for non-clinical capacity reasons, in Spring 2018, had peaked at just over 4% and were beginning to fall to around 1.5% before rising to 2% in June/July and then falling again in August. This contrasts sharply with 14% across the UK.

In the absence of a breakdown, I am limited in what can be concluded but, given the comparatively very low figures for Scotland, based on actual data recorded by the hospitals and the relatively small proportion of UK hospitals located in the UK as a whole (8%), it seems most unlikely that this research has much relevance for us.

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Waiting-Times/Publications/2018-09-04/2018-09-04-Cancellations-Summary.pdf?74837893248

Perhaps one of the most telling facts is that Scottish hospitals were not instructed to pre-emptively cancel thousands of non-urgent operations in this period. See:

NHS Scotland operation cancellations fall in November and there are no plans for increased cancellations in January but in NHS England…..

However, elderly Telegraph readers in Scotland [lots going by my local newsagent] saw this:

‘NHS hospitals ordered to cancel all routine operations in January as flu spike and bed shortages lead to A&E crisis

Every hospital in the country (sic)* has been ordered to cancel all non-urgent surgery until at least February in an unprecedented step by NHS officials.

The instructions on Tuesday night – which will see result in around 50,000 operations being axed – followed claims by senior doctors that patients were being treated in “third world” conditions, as hospital chief executives warned of the worst winter crisis for three decades.’

My local Spar has been known to offer me a free Telegraph. They know better now.

‘Over 75,000 carers receive new payment’ and ‘Supporting asylum seekers’

In the Guardian today, we see:

‘Majority of Britons think empathy is on the wane. YouGov survey finds 51% of people think empathy has declined compared with only 12% who think it has increased.’

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/oct/04/increasing-number-of-britons-think-empathy-is-on-the-wane

I haven’t been able so far to find the original research to see if there is a ‘regional’ breakdown and so to check if responses from Scots are any different. I suppose it is unlikely as it is about perceptions of empathy and we’ve just watched the nasty party (no speech marks required) at conference. I feel sure a reader will help.

It’s been two months since I last reported on the contentious issue of whether Scots and Scotland are just a bit different in terms of dominant values. The last was:

Are Scotland’s employers also different – more willing to pay a decent wage?

Before that, I’d written these:

Another step on the way to becoming a ‘Living Wage Nation’ and a ‘Better Nation?’

With 1 in 4 living wage employers already in Scotland, the Scottish Government aims to make this a ‘Living Wage Nation’

8% of the UK population and 28% of living wage employers. More evidence that we are different enough to want to run the whole show?

80 000 lowest paid workers in NHS England still on poverty wages as NHS Scotland follows Scottish Government policy to pay a living wage to all public-sector employees

Scottish care workers to receive Living Wage for ‘sleepover’ hours while English care workers receive only the National Minimum Wage.

Don’t know about you but I think there’s something in it. So, to add support to the theory, see these two SNP Government announcements today:

1. Over 75,000 carers receive new payment

‘More than 75,000 carers have received the Carer’s Allowance Supplement. Carers are getting an additional payment of £442 this financial year, in two payments of £221, equivalent of an extra £8.50 per week and an increase of 13% on the current Carer’s Allowance.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/over-75-000-carers-receive-new-payment

BBC Scotland News and STV did cover it in an entirely positive way but the Herald, placing the story ‘well down the page’, managed to find:

‘The cost of the extra benefit to Scottish taxpayers, the first of 11 to be devolved over this parliament, is £30m a year.’

There’s no mention of the above in the SNP Government release so some real ‘investigative journalism’ was required there.

There’s no sign of the story on the Scotsman site but having seen the kind of comments they get from readers, it’s no surprise they’re headlining anger…over delays on the Queensferry Crossing, changes to the location for the cup semi-final and Nicola Sturgeon ggrrr! Is my imagined stereotypical Scotsman troll as a tweedy, keen fisherman, who likes to cross the said crossing very quickly heading for the Tay in his 4×4, unfair?

The second piece of evidence I offer for the Difference Theory is this:

2. Supporting asylum seekers

‘An organisation that supports asylum seekers in Glasgow will benefit from extra funding. In July 2018, Serco Ltd announced plans to evict people from asylum accommodation in Glasgow. Although the evictions are currently paused, there remain a significant number of people seeking advice to secure their access to support or services they are entitled to. Positive Action in Housing will receive £20,000 emergency funding over six months to increase the capacity of their advice service. This will enable more people to re-establish Home Office support, mainstream services and housing they are entitled to or to make decisions about their future for themselves.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/supporting-asylum-seekers

Now, think of Theresa May shouting about preserving England’s borders and note how different our government is?

 

 

 

© http://thepipefitting.com

From Money Control, yesterday:

‘US oil prices hit their highest level since November 2014 on Tuesday and Brent crude was also near a four-year peak reached the previous day, with markets preparing for tighter supply once US sanctions against Iran kick in next month. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures marked $75.90 a barrel around 0630 GMT on Tuesday, their strongest since November 2014. WTI has risen around 18 percent since mid-August. International benchmark Brent crude oil futures were at $85.28 per barrel, up 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close. That was not far off the $85.45 peak reached in the previous session, the highest since November 2014. Brent has risen by more than 20 percent from its most recent lows in August.’

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/oil-at-4-year-peak-brent-above-85bbl-ahead-of-iran-sanctions-3005901.html

For a reminder of how little we will benefit from this until we get independence and how our Nomedia will do its best to hide the possible wealth so that we don’t, see:

Scotland’s Oil surging bullishly toward $100 per barrel

As Scottish oil heads for $100pb will the UK Treasury tax this massive revenue?

‘Scottish oil and gas sales saw an 18.2% increase to £20billion in the last financial year.’ but we get diddley!

High oil prices continue to weaken confidence in Scottish economy

Note: The predicted dramatic increases above neglect impact of further welfare devolution to SNP Government

__________________________________________________________________________

Reporting Scotland ignored the report altogether. They were far too busy with trouble over the football cup semi-final location and the Tory conference in Birmingham. However, at 06:29 and repeated five more times, in the Scottish insert into BBC Breakfast, we heard:

‘Child poverty in Scotland can only be eradicated if there is a drift in attitudes toward flexible work and school and holiday provision according to a leading charity. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation estimates 1 in 4 Scots children, almost one quarter of a million, is living in poverty and the majority of those are living in families where someone is disabled, or parents are struggling to juggle work and child care. The Scottish Government [not SNP this time?] say they’re taking action, but UK welfare cuts mean they’re doing so with one hand ties behind their back.’

The above is all true but, along with Reporting Scotland’s total neglect, this means that there remains much not reported and much of it is positive news for Scotland. Being, of course, biased in that direction, to compensate for BBC Scotland’s own bias, here are the ‘good’ bits:

Child poverty under the Tories remains a ‘national’ disgrace

In their Conclusions, the JRF team write:

‘Many families are in poverty despite meeting the conditions for the receipt of Universal Credit, working as many or more hours as expected. JRF wants to see Universal Credit changed before large numbers of households are moved onto it from tax credits and benefits such as Employment and Support Allowance. The priority across the UK should be to raise the work allowance (the amount people can earn before their Universal Credit payment is affected) to enable families to keep more of what they earn. Alongside this, we want to see the take-up of Scottish payment flexibilities boosted and the choice of payment splitting made available.’ 18

Turning to the Scottish context, the authors offer many encouraging comments, entirely missed by BBC Scotland News.

 Dignity and Respect

The authors note the value of the SNP Government’s introduction of payment flexibilities and finish with:

‘The Scottish Government’s commitment to building a social security system that has dignity and respect at its core and offering routes into employment for those currently excluded from the labour market, could change the family incomes and prospects of thousands of children for the better.’

Differences with non-Scottish Parts 1: Less vulnerable to benefits cuts

‘The IFS found that low-income families in Scotland currently have a higher proportion of their income coming from earnings than low-income families in some (but not all) parts of the UK, so have a lower proportion of income that is vulnerable to benefit cuts compared with some of the hardest-hit regions of the UK.’ (Hood and Waters,2017). 2

Differences with non-Scottish Parts 2: Fewer large families

‘In addition, one key change to UK benefit policy – the two-child limit on tax credits and Universal Credit– will particularly hit families with three or more children born after 6 April 2017. The IFS analysis found that Scotland has proportionally fewer families with three or more children than elsewhere in the UK, and around half the proportions found in Northern Ireland and the West Midlands.’ (Hood and Waters, 2017). 3

Differences with non-Scottish Parts 3 and 4: Higher increases in median income and less relative poverty

 

Note: The predicted dramatic increases above neglect impact of further welfare devolution to SNP Government

‘Many of the key drivers of changes in poverty have been felt UK-wide. However, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) has supported some research that showed a clear rise in Scottish median incomes relative to the rest of the UK from around 2003/04 and a relatively bigger improvement in the relative poverty rate from 2004/05.’ (Bailey, 2014).

Persistent poverty refers to children who have been living in relative poverty in three out of the last four years – a measure of the number of children who have been in poverty for a prolonged period of time.

Differences with non-Scottish Parts 5 and 6: Stronger decreases in poverty rates and increases in employment

‘The research identified strong decreases in poverty rates for the working-age population compared with the rest of the UK, alongside improving employment rates, especially for families without children. Over the period from 2000/04 to 2008/12, Scotland saw a bigger reduction in out-of-work families compared with the rest of the UK and similar growth as the rest of the UK in ‘intermediate work intensity’ (‘partly working’ families). 8

Differences with non-Scottish Parts 7 and 8: Affordable rents and mortgage costs

‘The analysis also pointed to more affordable rent and mortgage costs relative to income than in England, with social rents being 20–25% lower in Scotland by 2012/13. As a result, poverty after housing costs, compared with before housing costs, rose by a smaller amount than in England.’ 8

SNP Government Initiatives

‘In the coming months, the Scottish Government will launch two strategies that could make a crucial difference for our society. The first is an action plan on halving the disability employment gap, and the second is an action plan on the gender pay gap that is due to be published by the end of the year. This could be transformational for tackling poverty.’ 9

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/poverty-scotland-2018

Still much to be done but at least our government seems to care about it.

 

At 06:29 am, headlined and repeated throughout the morning, we heard:

‘There are still 79 [Scottish] people with special needs and autism in care in England and Wales.’

I don’t mean to diminish the suffering involved for these 79. I just want to understand how big a problem this is at a national level. Comparable figures for England & Wales don’t seem to be available. Is that because BBC Salford and BBC Wales don’t have an awesome ‘disclosure team’ burrowing away under the foundations of trust in government? Makes you feel your licence fee is worth it. Using your own money to make you feel anxious in the morning.  Also, the longer website piece is geography-free, so we can’t see how many are, for example, placed just across the border in a neighbouring region.

However, I did find this from 2011, on the BBC website:

‘Children in care far from home ‘at risk’, charities warn. Charities are warning that thousands of children placed in care far from home are more vulnerable to criminality, drug abuse and sexual exploitation. A third of the 64,000 children in local authority care in England and Wales live outside their local area. The charities say long-distance placements often traumatise children who are already damaged and vulnerable.’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-12295701/children-in-care-far-from-home-at-risk-charities-warn

So that’s around 21 000 children in care placed away from home. Is 79 evidence of a crisis in Scotland?

Come on, BBC Scotland, surely these people are also at risk of criminality and drug abuse too?

Why does the early morning repeat dose matter? See:

The Power of Early Morning Nightmares: The consequences including even death at home for expectant mothers of BBC Scotland’s reporting of one stillbirth

 

© http://thepipefitting.com

In Insider today:

‘Equinor to buy stake in North Sea’s Rosebank project. The oil and gas field is one of the biggest prospects on the UK Continental Shelf.Bottom of Form Norwegian oil company Equinor has confirmed that it is to buy a 40 per cent stake from Chevron in the Rosebank oil and gas field, one of the biggest prospects on the UK Continental Shelf. Equinor said in a statement: “We look forward to becoming the operator of the Rosebank project. We have a proven track record of high value field developments across the North Sea and will now be able to deploy this experience on a new project in the UK.’

And from Oil & Gas UK:

‘The Rosebank project is one of the largest known pre-Final Investment Decision (FID) developments in the UK (sic) Continental Shelf. With over 300 million barrels which could potentially be recovered, Equinor’s track record of successfully developing complex and challenging fields means they are well matched to maximise economic recovery from Rosebank.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/equinor-chevron-north-sea-oil-13342867

By 2019, 300 million barrels, from just one field, could be worth £30 billion!

An alleged lack of new field development is commonly used by our Nomedia to weaken optimism around increases in the value of Scottish oil. See these:

Scotland’s oil-based prosperity is clear as BP commits to two new developments

Major growth in North Sea oilfield developments

Another North Sea Oil development begins production. It’s called the Western Isles platform and it’s 100 miles east of Shetland – I know, misplaced, but at least it’s a better name than Lancaster, Loyal or Bombardier!

Scottish Government invests additional £2.2m in oil and gas research and development

The North Sea’s Third Wave of Wealth Generation: Further evidence from BP as they start production from ‘one of the largest field redevelopments in North Sea history’

SNP Government’s massive invest

‘Boom in Production from Giant [Kraken] Shetland Field Spurs Oil Industry’

Total begins to make massive profits from Scotland’s oilfields west of Shetland

Another oil major reports record production in the first half of the year boosted by the Solan field off Shetland

£290 billion of tax revenue still in the North Sea and much more to the west of Shetland

More signs of massive oil expectations in Scotland’s waters west of Shetland and the Chinese market is desperate for it

Estimates of Scotland’s oil reserves West of Shetland now massively increased to around 8 billion barrels! ‘A super-resource now on the cards.’

 

Footnote: Why is a Norwegian company so keen to get involved? Well one reason might be the obvious one – they’ll pay much less tax than in a Norwegian field. See:

‘London is giving away Scotland’s oil revenues

Tom Mitro, who managed Chevron’s taxation and financial planning in the North Sea in the 1990s, said [a new tax] scheme could deprive the Treasury of more than £3bn in tax over the next decade.

“Overall impact on the Exchequer of [the transferable tax history scheme] could range from virtually zero to roughly [a] £3bn [plus] reduction in tax receipts over the next 10 years depending on oil prices and [the] number of asset sales and decommissioning [of North Sea platforms and pipelines],” he said in a research paper prepared for Global Witness, the non-governmental organisation.

But why does the Treasury care? If it assists the spin that Scotland cannot survive on its own, I suspect that’s considered a price worth paying. And I would not be at all surprised if that is part of the political motivation for this.’

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2018/09/03/london-is-giving-away-scotlands-oil-revenues/

and:

‘Huge swing in North Sea oil revenues’ suggests tax fiddle

https://resourcegovernance.org/blog/did-uk-miss-out-%c2%a3400-billion-worth-oil-revenue

http://www.businessforscotland.com/norway-still-getting-much-tax-oil/

 

(c) Getty

From Health Secretary, Jeane Freeman, to NHS workers from the EU, yesterday:

Dear Colleagues,

‘As we approach the date of the UK’s exit from the EU, on 29 March 2019, I wanted to take this opportunity to write directly to EU/EEA staff working in the NHS in Scotland. Over the summer, negotiations between the UK and EU on Withdrawal have continued, heading towards expected decisions this autumn.  But the UK Government has also been stepping up its preparations for a possible “no deal” scenario.  I know this must be a very unsettling time for all of you.  That is why I wanted to reiterate now how much I value the contribution of every member of staff, regardless of their nationality. Colleagues from across the EU, and beyond, bring valuable experience and skills that strengthen and improve the work of the Health Service, and benefit the patients and communities we serve. Scotland is absolutely your home and we very much want you to stay here.’

There’s more here:

https://news.gov.scot/news/valuing-eu-health-and-social-care-staff

One reason to be keen on this previously, beyond common decency and common sense, was this:

‘Our report last year asked whether this would make a difference to the potential outcome of a Scottish independence referendum. It concluded if most EU citizens voted No in the 2014 referendum but would now vote Yes in a future referendum, it could have a significant impact: moving a cohort the size of the EU citizens [projected in 2020] from a No to a Yes vote would have been just enough to switch the result of the 2014 referendum, resulting in a 51 percent Yes vote.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/eu-nationals-will-not-have-right-to-vote-in-indyref2-1-4700453

They won’t get a vote, of course, if Brexit has taken place before Indyref2.