Talking-up Scotland

I’ve written before about the lack of belief amongst the political betting pundits in the kind of surge, 12 extra seats, Professor Curtice predicts. The website Political Betting gives them Borders (2015 majority only 328) and maybe, maybe, maybe, East Renfrewshire but they wouldn’t put money on the latter. See:

Scottish Tories very unlikely to gain more than two extra seats according to real experts

See even this more Tory-friendly guess from the most recent commentary at Political Betting.com:

‘Beyond this the sheer scale of the SNP tsunami in 2015 daunts. What should have been marginal seats have huge majorities. In Perth and North Perthshire, for example, the Tories are odds on with Ladbrokes but Pete Wishart sits on a majority of 9,641. This seems an extremely unattractive bet for me at those odds. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine looks very good for the Tories but 1/7? East Renfrewshire requires the Tories to come from a fairly distant third but again they are odds on. It demonstrates another problem in Scotland with the Unionist vote split between the competing parties. My expectation is that in several cases, notably in Edinburgh, this will result in the SNP coming through the middle and holding on. Bet365 has the SNP at 5/6 for more than 46.5 seats. Much though it pains me that looks a buy to me. My guess is that the Tories will get 6 plus some close seconds, Labour maybe 2 (Edinburgh South and East Lothian being the most likely) and the Lib Dems 3 leaving the SNP on 48.’

See also the last ICM poll:

Scottish Tory surge more a wee ripple according to the Sun on Sunday /ICM Poll

The Tories are currently talking up their chances of unseating Angus Robertson who took more than 50% of the vote in 2015 and has a majority of 9 065 – aye right. In all the other seats the SNP has majorities of 6 000 or more.

I stand by my previous position. The Tories get 2 or maybe 3, Labour get none and the liar democratic in Orkney goes down.

© snh.gov.uk

 

The Scottish Government’s ‘Less Favoured Area Support Scheme’ payments announced only in early April will be massively helping 13 000 of Scotland’s claimants to the tune of between 50 and 90% of their costs in the coming weeks.

 

Speaking to Farmers Weekly, yesterday NFU Scotland vice-president Martin Kennedy said:

 

‘This gets a huge chunk of the £65.5m LFASS budget into the rural economy and filtering down to the many businesses that service our sector. This time of the year is always the most challenging financially for beef and sheep producers in more disadvantaged areas. There are lots of costs and bills to settle at a time when little or no revenue is coming in.’

 

http://www.fwi.co.uk/news/45m-upland-loans-ready-roll-scotland.htm

© businessforscotland.com

According to Reuters today:

‘New research suggests that North Sea oil output may get a boost of a net 400,000 barrels per day in the next two years……Reuters claim the region is expected to report its third annual production rise in a row in 2017, reversing years of sliding output….Projects from the West of Shetland are expected to provide a significant increase in current production levels as some major assets come onstream.’

Well it’s all a bit ‘new, duh what took you?’ to me but it’s nice to have their high status mark of approval I suppose. Maybe our MSM will report it? Remember this from here on Valentine’s Day, 14^th February 2017, three months ago?

North Sea oil and gas is on the crest of a ‘Third Wave’ and the SNP Government is already supporting plans for it

 

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/139525/research-suggests-north-sea-oil-output-boost-horizon/

 

An artist’s impression of the world’s largest floating windfarm planned off the coast of Scotland. Photograph: Statoil ASA

Planning permission has been granted for four more large wind farms off the east coast of Scotland to add to the already being built giant field of floating turbines to be constructed in Scotland at the re-opened dock in Kishorn. This looks like further confirmation of the confidence in a 100% target for 2030, already reported at:

Scotland’s energy 100% renewable by 2030?

Although the Scottish Government’s target for 2030 is only just over 50% of all energy generation by renewables, a survey suggests many believe 100% is possible. Also, a major Scottish law firm sees tremendous potential in the renewables energy field to overcome market conditions and political barriers. I agree, after reporting on many recent massive wind and marine turbine projects currently underway with still thirteen years to go. For example

‘The Biggest in the World!’ 270 tidal energy turbines to be installed to provide sustainable power to Scotland

A second ‘biggest in the world’ for Scotland’s renewable energy sector

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/139498/scottish-court-ruling-paves-way-four-major-wind-farms-off-east-coast/

Once more, an oil major reports evidence that the Third Wave of prosperity for Scottish oil is well underway after only one year of losses (2016) in forty years of subsidising the UK Treasury. Premier was extracting 82 600 barrels per day in the four months ending 30^th April 2017 and expects to sell at $50 per barrel. From what I’ve read and reported earlier, this is a pretty conservative figure with other pundits confidently going for between 60 and 70. See:

‘Data and analytics firm’, McKinsey predicted that oil prices will rebalance at $60 to $70 per barrel.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/136941/oil-re-balance-60-70-per-barrel-mckinsey-says/

McKinsey know what they’re talking about, I’d suggest. Premier will revisit their estimates in July and expects to triple output this year. I hope our Scottish mainstream media is paying attention.
And, we can expect shortages in only a few months to guarantee these higher prices for Scotland’s oil:

‘The global supply deficit is predicted to be as wide as 2 billion barrels per day by July.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/139045/oil-bulls-top-cuts-start-drain-stockpiles/?sso-c=MC41MzEzOTcwMCAxNDk0NTI5MDQ2

 

Source: www.reuters.com

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/14218/premier-oil-sees-big-debt-cuts-in-2018-with-higher-output/

Very good news from oil giant Centrica who have decided to drill a new output well in their Chesnut field, 125 miles to the north-east of Aberdeen. This will safeguard 70 jobs and is expected to treble output from the field to 10 000 barrels per day. I can only guess this is a response the massive increase in demand for heavy-grade North Sea oil from Asia referred to in my previous piece and which has seen 16 million barrels flowing there in April 2017 alone. Demand is already beginning to outstrip supply and some pundits are predicting a massive shortage this year pushing prices up to £70 per barrel.

According to Goldman Sachs, in Energy Voice, the market is ‘rebalancing rapidly’ and ‘demand will significantly exceed production’, according to the IEA’s Head of Oil Industry and Markets, Neil Atkinson. US stockpiles fell by the 5.2 million barrels in one week. So much for the risk to prices posed by shale. The global supply deficit is predicted to be as wide as 2 billion barrels per day by July.

https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/139045/oil-bulls-top-cuts-start-drain-stockpiles/?sso-c=MC41MzEzOTcwMCAxNDk0NTI5MDQ2

Last week, ‘data and analytics firm’, McKinsey predicted that oil prices will rebalance at $60 to $70 per barrel. This is well above the $50 per barrel current optimum for viability which itself may be higher than that required for new, smaller, technologically smarter companies

https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/136941/oil-re-balance-60-70-per-barrel-mckinsey-says/

 

Chestnut started production in 2008 and has produced 20 million barrels despite an initial prediction of only 7 million so perhaps we can expect more this time too?

Interestingly, one of the factors encouraging this is the exchange rate which means if you extract oil with costs in sterling then sell in dollars you get an extra cost benefit.

The Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) operations director Gunther Newcombe is quoted in Energy Voice as saying:

‘The potential production from this incremental Chestnut field investment demonstrates the value of focused late-life management. This investment is a great example of the OGA and industry’s shared objective of delivering maximised economic recovery for the UK.’

Here’s more evidence that the North Sea is far from finished though let’s hope we can substitute the word ‘Scotland’ for ‘UK’ in that quote, before too long.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/139259/exclusive-centricas-35m-north-sea-field-revival-saves-70-jobs-articleisfree/

(c) businessforscotland.com

Leaving aside the clear evidence of shrinking supplies as Asian demand outstrips production, yesterday’s decision by the Saudi and Russian energy ministers to control their output into 2018 led to oil prices rising to their highest level for some time. Saudi Arabia and Russia are the largest of the 24 nations that have agreed to control output to stabilise prices at a viable level for profitability. You’ll have seen here that this has triggered a massive outflow of North Sea oil to Asia in recent months turning around the dip in 2016. Oil is now trading at over £48 dollars per barrel with likely increases beyond that as the shortages begin to bite. See:

Scottish oil in new and much increased demand from Asia ‘like never before!’

LAST YEAR’S NEWS! Scottish oil tax receipts go into red for first and last time in 2016 after decades of subsidising London and as a ‘Third Wave’ of prosperity begins

Scottish oil prices certain to rise as global reserves are drained

Other evidence of the recovery, in Energy Voice, is a 30% increase in working rigs globally. It’s going to be very interesting when and if we hear Treasury updates on North Sea oil tax revenues for 2017

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/139303/oil-jumps-saudis-russia-favor-extending-output-deal-2018/

(c) scottish-enterprise.com

News reporting is a matter of choices and emphasis and those can affect how people feel about important issues such as Scottish independence. The latest RBS report finds some explicitly very good news and some just quite good news then sums it all up as a ‘tentative upturn’ but the effect of this is to mask something of significance. It is important and good news that things are going very well indeed in manufacturing regardless of what is less impressive in other sectors unless of course you don’t want people thinking optimistically about independence. The article in the Insider is headlined:

‘Scottish businesses see ‘slight upturn’ in activity’

Then within the article amongst lots of ‘ah buts’ we read:

‘Job creation in April was at its strongest in eight months’

‘The latest survey’s results were driven by a strong manufacturing sector, which moved up a gear in April .’

‘There was good news all round, from steep production growth to solid job creation and a further easing of cost pressures.’

This is a piece of bloody good news and it needs to be shared as such, regardless of the RBS author’s conscious or semi-conscious political conservatism.

http://www.insider.co.uk/news/scottish-businesses-see-slight-upturn-10424948

Apologies for my wonky metaphor there but I couldn’t think of one for a subsea technology. A centre of excellence is to be based in Aberdeen with £2.5 million from the Scottish Government. The new centre to be run by Balmoral Offshore Engineering will offer facilities for sub-sea pressure testing of new devices such as, presumably, tidal wave turbines of the kind reported already here at:

‘The Biggest in the World!’ 270 tidal energy turbines to be installed to provide sustainable power to Scotland

Orkney’s giant tidal turbine is the world’s most powerful

You’ll see from these previous headlines that Scotland is already well-underway. The First Minister goes further:

‘Scotland is a world leader in subsea engineering, already accounting for around 15 per cent of the £50 billion global subsea market and as our Subsea Engineering Action plan has outlined, we want to build on this, supporting companies to grow and ensure we have the class-leading test and research infrastructure needed to meet future needs of a sector that already employs 38,000 in Scotland.’

The new facility will double the capacity of Scotland’s testing facilities for ‘open access pressure testing.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/support-for-subsea-testing-centre-of-excellence

Here’s one to help any of Scotland’s hundreds of thousands of Scots with Irish ancestry (Nearly all of us if you go back far enough?), Irish relatives or friends make up their minds about Indyref2. Maybe none of these but you have might have a wee bit of respect for them as you do for many English people – The Cure, The Smiths……Corbyn…..? Well here’s what another Tory-boy had to say about them last night just because Ireland’s judges didn’t vote for Britain in the Eurovision Song Contest. I quite liked the British song and we don’t even know how many Irish citizens did vote for it.

 

Anyhow, Nick Harrington, from Warwick District Council, tweeted then too late deleted this above.

 

I’ve already twice posted how they’re going open their fat mouths so many times between now and Indyref2. See:

 

‘Fuck off back to Scotland!’ I told you, we can rely on the sort of people the Tories are to help us win Indyref2

 

Good News for Indyref2: More Tories mean more offensive comments

 

And, we’ve got months and months to go. They haven’t ‘done’ the Welsh or the Poles for a while have they?