I’ve written before about the lack of belief amongst the political betting pundits in the kind of surge, 12 extra seats, Professor Curtice predicts. The website Political Betting gives them Borders (2015 majority only 328) and maybe, maybe, maybe, East Renfrewshire but they wouldn’t put money on the latter. See:
See even this more Tory-friendly guess from the most recent commentary at Political Betting.com:
‘Beyond this the sheer scale of the SNP tsunami in 2015 daunts. What should have been marginal seats have huge majorities. In Perth and North Perthshire, for example, the Tories are odds on with Ladbrokes but Pete Wishart sits on a majority of 9,641. This seems an extremely unattractive bet for me at those odds. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine looks very good for the Tories but 1/7? East Renfrewshire requires the Tories to come from a fairly distant third but again they are odds on. It demonstrates another problem in Scotland with the Unionist vote split between the competing parties. My expectation is that in several cases, notably in Edinburgh, this will result in the SNP coming through the middle and holding on. Bet365 has the SNP at 5/6 for more than 46.5 seats. Much though it pains me that looks a buy to me. My guess is that the Tories will get 6 plus some close seconds, Labour maybe 2 (Edinburgh South and East Lothian being the most likely) and the Lib Dems 3 leaving the SNP on 48.’
See also the last ICM poll:
The Tories are currently talking up their chances of unseating Angus Robertson who took more than 50% of the vote in 2015 and has a majority of 9 065 – aye right. In all the other seats the SNP has majorities of 6 000 or more.
I stand by my previous position. The Tories get 2 or maybe 3, Labour get none and the liar democratic in Orkney goes down.