Scottish Tory surge more a wee ripple according to the Sun on Sunday /ICM Poll

ripples

Photo: Flickr user mRio / Creative Commons

Some have been predicting gains of 12 seats on the basis of a 30% surge. Even that, I’ve already pointed out, based on the political bookies, would lead to far less than 12 gains. See:

Scottish Tories very unlikely to gain more than two extra seats according to real experts

The SoS/ICM poll with data collected between April 26-28 tells of more lmited expectations and thus, perhaps, no gains at all. They interviewed online which tends to be more accurate than landline telephone calls. The sample was 2,012 GB adults aged 18+ and weighted in an effort to be representative of the UK electorate. The Scottish sample was only 137 so there are limitations there.

However, when you dig down into the table showing how Scots responded to the question of how they would vote if there were an election ‘tomorrow’, the Tory surge (only 2% up on 2015) looks too small to achieve anything much in terms of seats gained. See this:

SNP 45%

Conservative 24%

Labour 17%

LibDem 10%

Greens 3%

UKIP 1%

You’d need widespread and almost 100% tactical voting across constituencies with all the Labour and Lib Dems voting Tory to get anything like 12 gains. My feeling is that all the Labour defections are done now and the remaining 17% will stand by their principles or just not turn up. As for the Lib Dems, there’s more hostility amongst many of them than in the past after their shafting by them in the last election when the Tories broke the expenses rules to swamp consituencies and oust vulnerable Lib Dems. Finally, if there was much sign of this in media reports, would the Greens come in to back up the SNP giving them typically 48% of the vote which is unbeatable.

https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2017_sunonsunday_camp_apr28th.pdf

 

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