Talking-up Scotland

(c) dailyrecord.co.uk

There was a 38% increase in the number of north American visitors visiting Scotland in the 12 months to end of June 2017 and they spent £732 million compared to £495 million in the previous 12 months.

https://news.gov.scot/news/international-spend-up

While many commentators identify the weak pound as the key factor, I feel sure the quality of the experience, the Outlander effect and the relative safety from terror attacks they perceive as becoming more common further south in London and in Europe are important factors too. I’ve reported evidence of these already in:

Tourism spending in Scotland surges ahead of UK figure

‘Outlander links see visitors to historic sites soaring’

North Americans lead surge in Scottish tourism because they feel safer here

There was an 11% increase from all countries in the same period with spending rising by 19% to a whopping £2 billion. Back in May, I reflected on reasons why Scotland has not experienced terror attacks since the Glasgow Airport case:

Scotland and Terrorism: Are we safer?

(c) wikipedia.org

As the UK drifts out of control toward the cliff edge of a hard Brexit, the Scottish Government is making sensible moves to strengthen Scotland’s trade links with Scandinavia, the Baltic states, Ireland and now, with those countries in the Arctic Circle. See these previous reports:

Scotland to strengthen links with Ireland as well as Scandinavia and the Baltic as SNP Government prepares for Brexit

Scotland’s Nordic-Baltic Co-operation

Now the First Minister is to deliver a keynote addresses at the Arctic Circle Assembly on Friday in Iceland. There will be 2 000 delegates there from 50 countries (50?) which lie near or in the Arctic Circle. Economic collaboration and climate change will be the main themes of the conference and of the First Minister’s address.

Reported in Insider magazine today, the FM said:

‘There is much Scotland can gain by looking north, and we also have knowledge and insight to share with our neighbours in the region. As we face the growing threat of an economically damaging extreme Brexit, it is more vital than ever that we seek to build strong international links, and I am determined to do all I can to build consensus with like-minded nations.’

I’ve already reported today on the renewable energy generation expertise we have to share, at:

Scotland’s expertise in renewable power generation now worth billions

http://www.insider.co.uk/news/nicola-sturgeon-visits-iceland-links-11326593

Other writers have compared the Scottish First and the UK Prime, ministers recently, with the former seeming so much more in control of circumstances. This just adds to the impression.

(c) cnn.com

Aberdeen-based SBS Group have just announced a £21 million contract to help deliver Indonesia’s first large tidal-energy scheme. It will be a 150MWh project worth £409 million in total.

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/152827/tidal-project-worth-21million/

However, encouraging this is, and it is, it’s not a new trend. See this from the Aberdeen Evening Express on 12^th December 2016:

‘Scotland’s “expertise in renewable energy” is in demand around the world, with businesses working in more than 40 countries, according to new research. Projects include advising the government of Japan, providing cranes to build wind farms in Morocco and South Africa and working with the World Bank in Chile, industry body Scottish Renewables said.’

Later, in June 2017, I wrote:

‘It’s not just the oil and gas exports that make the money now. After decades of experience gained in the North Sea and in west of Shetland’s deeper stormier waters, Scotland now earns just over half of its income from international business supplying equipment and expertise across the globe….The survey producing the £11.4 billion figure was carried out by Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce for Scottish Enterprise and had responses from 295 companies employing 63 000 staff.’

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/07/28/scotlands-oil-and-gas-extraction-expertise-continues-to-earn-millions/

Since then, I’ve reported several individual cases including:

Scotland’s expertise in subsea development is recognised by deal with Japan

Scotland’s renewables expertise continues to earn millions.

Taiwan comes to Scotland for offshore renewables inspiration

We can add Taiwan and Indonesia to the list without a survey but it’s clearly time for another survey by Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce.

(c) morayoffshore.com

On September 12^th, Energy Voice headlined ‘Saudi of wind’ or ‘Gagging on Wind Power’. At the time it seemed, even to an enthusiast like me, a bit OTT. However, this latest announcement of another giant floating wind-farm off the Moray coast will push Scotland’s wind-power output into that kind of scale.

‘Scotland ‘Saudi of wind’ or ‘Gagging on Wind Power’

EDP’s new Moray West proposal for 90 turbines will generate power for a further 750 000 homes or equivalent.

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/152815/second-huge-moray-firth-wind-farm-proposed/

Existing and forthcoming wind-farms will soon be generating enough to supply the equivalent of 2 725 000 homes.

I wrote this in August:

‘Developers EDPR have put in proposals for another massive offshore windfarm off the Moray coast to take advantage of the high and sustainable winds constantly available there. It will be able to power 750 000 homes. We already know of the Beatrice (Moray coast), offshore windfarm which will do 450 000 homes, the 45MWh Neart na Goithe off Fife which will do 325 000 homes (1 million people) and the 50MWh Kincardineshire floating offshore farm which will presumably do even more, say 500 000 homes. Add to that the Pentland Firth tidal energy plant which will power 700 000 homes and you have a total of around 2 725 000 homes.’

‘Saudi of wind and waves’ might be better? Scotland gets around 25% of all of Europe’s wind energy and probably a comparable percentage of all its wave energy. Saudi Arabia has or had around 22% of the world’s oil supplies, so close?

So, the new proposal will take us up to the equivalent of 3 475 000 homes which of course we don’t actually have. I think we have around 2.3 million homes. Also, even the current system can produce more than we can handle:

Stormy Monday: Wind generates 206% of Scotland’s energy needs in one day!

That was enough for 7 million homes. Storage is of course still a challenge given this output but progress is being made. See these previous reports:

£20 million Scottish renewable energy storage unit for Broxburn will be first in UK

Storing Scotland’s massive renewable energy production

I’m happy with the ‘Saudi of wind and waves’ as long as we’re not the ‘Saudi’ of anything else. I’ll leave you to think of the titles we don’t want and then quickly cut them off from your thinking.

(c) http://mhsgroup.org

The Scottish Government is to explore setting up a not-for-profit publicly-owned energy company. I can hear the cheering around the country as we all think back to our most recent rip-off bill from SSEB (Scottish Super Executives Bonuses).

The pledge to do so was in the manifesto. The FM said:

‘Energy would be bought wholesale or generated here in Scotland – renewable, of course – and sold to customers as close to cost price as possible. No shareholders to worry about. No corporate bonuses to consider. It would give people – particularly those on low incomes – more choice and the option of a supplier whose only job is to secure the lowest price for consumers.’

That is music to my ears though I wonder how the EU would react? I’m guessing here, but isn’t one of the reasons Norway stays out of the EU and in EFTA, is so that they can have a nationalised oil and gas company which prevents multi-nationals ripping them off and which has enabled them to tuck away £1 trillion from fields considerably smaller than those in the Scottish sector of the North Sea and Atlantic?

I think there’s a growing awareness that the SNP needs to drop its uncritical acceptance of the value of EU membership which probably cost it seats at the last election, explain EFTA and, by all means, promise a post-independence referendum on joining the EU again but, this time, one with all the information on the table for the people to consider.

See this for a fuller critique of the EU:

Uncritical EU loyalty not the suggestion of IndyRef2 was to blame for SNP losses. As the EU abandons the Catalans, it’s time for us to abandon it

(Image: Media Scotland)

Like many larger cities, Glasgow has a number of air pollution hot spots which detract from its growing reputation as a cultural centre, the best shopping centre in the country and a generally good place to live.

Working in collaboration with SNP-run Glasgow City Council, the Scottish Government will help prepare a plan to improve air quality in Glasgow by, in particular, eliminating the above hot spots. You have to wonder why the Labour-run administration never got round to this kind of thing.

It’s worth remembering however, that Glasgow’s problems do not compare to those of mega cities like London and Beijing where pollution ‘red alerts’ are becoming ever more common, forcing the frail, the elderly and the young to stay indoors at risk of serious harm. There have been repeated red alerts for air pollution in more than 20 global cities in the last year.

See, for example:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/27/london-issues-red-alert-for-extremely-high-air-pollution

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/17/beijing-smog-pollution-red-alert-declared-in-china-capital-and-21-other-cities

https://news.gov.scot/news/first-low-emission-zone-for-glasgow

Scotland had 115 killings in 2007/8, 58 in 2015/2016 and 61 in 2016/2017. The BBC described the three extra deaths in 2017 as a ‘spike’. A 5% increase in one year cannot of course be seen as a significant indicator of a worsening trend. Most victims were men and most perpetrators were men. Female victims were most often killed by a partner or ex-partner.

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0052/00525786.pdf

This means that the Scottish rate of 11 per 1 million is slightly below the England and Wales figure of 12 per 1 million. According to Professor McVie of Edinburgh Law School, in 2016, ‘rates of homicide have fallen more sharply in Scotland than in many other countries.’

Interestingly, Professor McVie says:

‘At the global level, the international fall in violence has been linked to a number of factors, including smarter policing practices, increased use of imprisonment, changes in drug markets and reductions in lead in petrol.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-30398110

Readers might remember that research has shown that exposure to lead during pregnancy reduces the head circumference of infants. In children and adults, it causes headaches, inhibits IQ and can lead to aggressive or dysfunctional behaviour. Lead in petrol has been banned in Scotland since 2000. For more see:

As major global cities like London struggle with pollution, levels in Scotland have dropped by more than 66% since 1990. Has this contributed to falling crime levels too?

A factor rarely mentioned is the strong correlation between homicide rates and inequality:

‘Specifically, there is evidence that income inequality strongly influences rates of violent crime, including homicide.’

See also this diagram:

http://bjp.rcpsych.org/content/199/4/341.1

While inequality remains a problem in Scotland it’s worth considering these achievements of the SNP adminstration:

‘There is much that the Scottish Government is doing to reduce the impact of poverty and inequality and there is much in Scotland that can be celebrated and learned from.’

 http://www.rcpch.ac.uk/system/files/protected/page/SOCH-recommendations-Scotland.pdf

‘New experimental statistics have been published today showing the proportion of people living in persistent poverty in Scotland between 2010 and 2015. We know that spending brief periods with a low income can be less damaging than living in poverty over a number of years. The persistent poverty figures show the number of individuals living in poverty for 3 or more of the last 4 years. Scotland generally had lower persistent poverty rates when compared with England, Northern Ireland and Wales, especially after housing costs. After housing costs the the Scottish persistent poverty rate (9 per cent) was below that of England (12 per cent), Northern Ireland (12 per cent) and Wales (12 per cent).’

http://news.gov.scot/news/persistent-poverty-in-scotland-2010-2015

 

The Scottish government is to double its spending on free early learning and childcare to £840 million per year by 2021-22. This will give parents an entitlement to 30 hours or a total of 1140 hours from August 2020.

This will make a huge difference to the ability of working parents to combine careers and childcare. The cost of private childcare has often been prohibitive, consuming sometimes more than half of the income earned by a working parent. At the SNP conference, the First Minister described this as a ‘transformational’ change.

Every three and four year-old and eligible two year-olds will be entitled to this funding worth around £4 500 per year or £350 per month.

https://news.gov.scot/news/childcare-spending-to-double-to-gbp-840-million-a-year

In England, as far as I can see, the 30 hours offer is not universal. Both parents must be working or the sole parent must be working in a lone-parent family and they must earn a minimum of the equivalent of 16 hours per week at the national living or minimum wage. There is a complex online application form and by the end of August, only just over 50% of parents had applied.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-41098769

https://www.childcarechoices.gov.uk/

I wrote a few days ago on the need for Scotland to have a National Investment Bank and referred to the suggestion that with an initial investment from the Scottish Government of only £225 million, £3.4 billion could be leveraged in the first year alone.

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/10/05/why-scotland-needs-a-national-investment-bank/

I’d forgotten that we already have one. The Scottish Investment Bank which is the ‘investment arm’ of Scottish Enterprise has been investing in Scottish companies for decades. In 2016/17, it invested £63.5 million of government funds into 146 companies. This is up 21% from £52.4 million in 2015/2016 due to the Scottish government’s increased ambitions to grow the economy.

The SIB also leveraged £106 of private funds. So, the idea works in practice. We just need a bigger one, a much bigger one, leveraging £3.4 billion!

https://sbnn.co.uk/2017/10/09/sib-invests-record-63-5m-146-scottish-companies-201617/

 

(c) THINKSTOCK

Youth unemployment in Scotland ins 9.4%, a decrease of 48.3% since 2014. The target was 40%. The table below reveals the shockingly high level of youth employment across much of Europe. Scotland’s figure is amongst the best in Europe and significantly better than for the UK as a whole.

Scotland would come in 5th best out of 29, on youth unemployment, just after Slovenia. Bloody Slovenia! Holding us back in football and in this.

This achievement is impressive and is testimony to the Scottish government’s initiatives including the Developing the Young Workforce programme based on education, improved careers advice, work experience and modern apprenticeship opportunities. Most recently, they have announced £96 million of funding to create fairer employment support services to help the disabled and those facing social and economic barriers to get into and to stay in work.

I feel sure this good news will be all over BBC News broadcasts.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/

https://news.gov.scot/news/youth-employment-target-met-four-years-ahead-of-schedule