Talking-up Scotland

(c) ultimatetitanic.com

I read in the Guardian today that the gap between UK government spending and tax revenue is expected to be around £7 billion frustrating Chancellor Philip Hammond’s attempt to give his cabinet colleagues what they want – less austerity please.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/21/widening-uk-budget-deficit-hands-hammond-a-headache

The problem is the massive gap between exports and imports in London and the South of England, regardless of their higher productivity.

Like Ancient Rome, London, the over-heated and gluttonous region, is in danger of imploding and dragging the rest of the country under. This is especially ironic given Scotland’s consistent trade surplus over decades which would have required no borrowing whatsoever. We know not to trust the ideologically-generated and frankly useless GERS figures which dreamt up a revenue deficit for Scotland. See:

The Scottish Sun’s grammatically incorrect but politically correct and helpfully blunt assessment of GERS

25 of the 26 GERS income figures are estimates and not the real figures!

Here’s a reminder of the Scottish trade surplus:

Deficit/Surplus in 2017 (Predicted)

England           -£128 200 000 000

Wales              –£700 000 000

Scotland          +£4 300 000 000

N Ireland         +£1 100 000 000

Deficit/Surplus in 2016

England           -£120 038 000 000

Wales              –£55 000 000

Scotland          +£2 148 000 000

N Ireland         –£4 039 000 000 

Deficit/Surplus in 2015

England           -£110 358 000 000

Wales              –£1 600 000 000

Scotland          +£4 124 000 000

N Ireland         –£2 311 00 000

Deficit/Surplus in 2014

England           -113 877 000 000

Wales              –£2 544 000 000

Scotland          +7 917 000 000

N Ireland         –£2 106 000 000

I couldn’t trace the equivalent data for before 2014 but there looks like a wee trend there with England’s trade deficit having cost us billions and consequently having lumbered us with the massive debts which the austerity programme was supposed to clear but could not. I can’t see why we’d leave the Union owing them any share of the UK debt whatsoever when we clearly didn’t incur it. Further, is rUK strong enough to be an independent country?

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/Pages/default.aspx

Gordon Brown supported Raith Rovers from childhood but then went on to support England’s World Cup bid and then, horror of horrors, said that one of his favourite football memories was the Paul Gascoigne goal for England against Scotland in Euro 96! That betrayal did him little good in the end, I’m pleased to note.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/brown-s-fond-memories-of-gazza-s-goal-against-scots-1-1118790

The new Labour Scotland Branch manager, Richard Leonard, has admitted that he would support England against Scotland even though he’s spent most of his life up here. I’m OK with that. At least he’s honest about it. Does anyone think that him pretending to support Scotland would gain them a single vote? The first cut is the deepest. I’ve lived in Ayr for 33 years, exactly half my life, but Falkirk FC are my team still.

Better meddle wi’ the De’il than the Bairns of Falkirk!

I’m more interested in which team in his constituency, Central Scotland, he supports. They may all be below him and he’s sticking with Leeds or Huddersfield or some other big English club. He’s got a choice between the Bairns, Hamilton, Motherwell, Airdrie or Albion Rovers. If it’s Hamilton, he’d be well-advised to keep quiet about that after them beating Rangers. He could lose a few votes there. I’m guessing it’s Albion Rovers. I can’t prove they have Anglophile roots but look at that Tudor rose in their badge. Also, see this justification for Richard Leonard (Richard the Lionheart?) choosing them:

Perfidious Albion England or Britain considered as treacherous in international affairs, in a rendering of the French phrase la perfide Albion, said to have been first used by the Marquis de Ximenès (1726–1817).

http://www.encyclopedia.com/humanities/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/perfidious-albion

It’s still being used today:

‘Perfidious Albion hands murderous Assad a spectacular victory’

https://www.timesofisrael.com/perfidious-albion-hands-murderous-assad-a-spectacular-victory/

Anas Sarwar or Anwar Sadat as I once confused his name with, has probably called him worse than ‘perfidious’ in the last few days.

Note: Dear readers, I am aware that this piece may seem a little eccentric and wandering.

 

(c) energy-pedia.com

According to Oil & Gas People today, Premier Oil’s Catcher field off Aberdeen starts production any day now and is expected to: ‘generate significant amounts of cash next year.’

With oil prices holding up above $60 per barrel and production costs looking to fall below $15 per barrel, this and the decision by Premier to develop another field, Tolmount, next year, reinforces earlier reports of the value and life expectancy of the North Sea basin as source of wealth for an Independent Scotland in the decades to come.

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/15549/london-oil-and-gas-firm-provides-vote-of-confidence-for-north-sea/

See these earlier reports revealing the above to be part of a wider ‘Third Wave’ of wealth-creation in the North Sea:

Is Peak Oil still 20 or 30 years in the future and so, would an independent Scotland be rich?

Scottish oil now worth $63.58 per barrel as boom continues

New technology to extend life of North Sea oilfields. Reports of its death have been greatly exaggerated

Investors already betting on $100 per barrel oil in 2018? Indyref2 should be a very different story

We need independence to get some of this revenue for Scotland and though Indyref2 may have been delayed, it’s still on the table. Peak oil could be as far away as 2040 or even 2050. Does anyone think Indeyref2 won’t happen much earlier than that- 2021?

Footnote: there’s a field called Bagpuss, Blofeld?

A Scandinavian scheme, ‘Housing First’, is already being piloted in parts of Scotland. What is distinctive about this scheme is that it prioritises getting people off the streets first and into a stable home environment before tackling the problems such as drug addiction which may have been the initial cause of their homelessness. See this, on a Finnish scheme, reported in the Guardian in 2016:

‘The housing first model is quite simple: when people are homeless, you give them housing first – a stable home, rather than progressing them through several levels of temporary and transitional accommodation. The idea stems from the belief that people who are homeless need a home, and other issues that may cause them to be at risk of homelessness can be addressed once they are in stable housing. Homeless people aren’t told they must conquer their addictions or secure a job before being given a home: instead it is accepted that having a home can make solving health and social problems much easier.’

Homelessness in Finland is in steep decline, the scheme is considered a great success there and has been copied in Sweden. Knowing what we know about the UK government, I’m sure none will be surprised that the only reason given for not adopting such a scheme in a UK Parliament report was this:

‘We are cautious about investing further in housing first in England because of the severity of England’s homelessness challenge and the scarcity of funding and of social housing.’

https://www.theguardian.com/housing-network/2016/sep/14/lessons-from-finland-helping-homeless-housing-model-homes

The building of affordable housing is proceeding at twice the rate of the UK, in Scotland, so perhaps that may be less of a barrier here.

Scottish Government increases supply of affordable housing and builds at more, perhaps much more, than twice the rate as in England

More important, the Scottish government clearly holds to more communitarian or humanitarian values and the First Minister has now said she would like to see the scheme expanded. Reported in the Sunday Post, she said:

‘The housing first model is already being used in certain parts of Scotland with quite significant success, and it is an approach that I am very interested to see extended by us and local authorities. I agree with the underpinning principles of the housing first model, because the approach is about responding very quickly to initial need but also looking at how a package of support can be put around somebody who is homeless and needs accommodation.’

https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/sturgeons-backing-for-scandinavian-homeless-scheme/

I think I can add this to the list of reasons why Scotland is different enough to be running the show itself:

8% of the UK population and 28% of living wage employers. More evidence that we are different enough to want to run the whole show?

58 000 baby boxes to help increase life chances and now Scotland will be the first country in the world to provide free sanitary products to ‘end period poverty’. This is the kind of country I want to live in.

Scots the least respectful of the upper classes: More evidence of a difference that makes a difference?

Scientific evidence that Scots tend to be different from the other groups in rUK?

Racial hate crimes increase by 33% in England & Wales while falling by 10% in Scotland: Who says we’re not different?

‘Scottish tooth fairies are the most generous.’ See, even more evidence we are different.

Who said Scots were not more left-wing than those in the rest of the UK?

25 498 people attended Emergency department in Scotland during week-ending 5^th November. 94.3% were seen within 4 hours, up from 94% in the last week of October. Only 120 spent longer than 8 hours and only 20 spent longer than 12 hours. Remember, there are beds in all Scottish A&E departments so those spending longer are well-cared for. I know this from personal experience as I was given an overnight bed in A&E because it was late at night, the consultant wanted me to be monitored for some time, and consequently it was not a good time to transfer me to a ward.

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Emergency-Care/Publications/2017-11-14/2017-11-14-ED-Weekly-Summary.pdf?14982241393

The NHS England data for November week 1 are not yet published but in October, only 84.9% were seen within 4 hours in Type 1 departments while 90.1% were seen across all four types. A Type 1 Emergency department is defined as: ‘a consultant-led 24-hour service with full resuscitation facilities and designated accommodation for the reception of accident and emergency patients.’

I think that makes all Scottish Emergency departments, Type 1 so the gap between them is nearly 10%!

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/ae-waiting-times-and-activity/ae-attendances-and-emergency-admissions-2017-18/

Clean water is the essential basis for any society but in parts of Pakistan its availability is often a problem. This results in a cycle of disease, poor health and a weak local economy. Now, ADVES Water Ltd, Bridge Technologies, the James Hutton Institute and the National University of Science and Technology in Islamabad are working together to deliver a high-quality purification facility with a £50 000 grant. The technology was first developed for Soviet space craft in the 1970s. This is another of many contributions Scottish scientists and researchers are making to the lives of people in poorer parts of the world. See these recent examples:

Scottish Researchers again!

Scottish research first to identify ways of reducing cattle-fart with view to saving the planet

Scottish Association for Marine Science to lead seaweed research to benefit developing nations

Scottish Veterinary researchers working to improve the health and productivity of farmed animals in sub-Saharan Africa.

Scottish university research to help developing nations remove arsenic from water supplies

https://news.gov.scot/news/space-technology-saving-lives

I feel sure this heart-warming and positive story will be in the forefront of BBC Scotland broadcast news. The SNP and the Soviet Union will surely get a mention. Let me know if you see them.

(c) thetimes.co.uk

I stumbled over BBC Scotland’s Douglas Fraser’s, mean, grudging and dishonest report denying any credit to the Scottish Government at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42043962

If you have a strong stomach you might want to read a line or two. I caught a glimpse and quickly turned away. I won’t give it space here. What actually happened was this:

‘Jobs at a troubled windfarm engineering firm facing collapse have been saved after Nicola Sturgeon unveiled a rescue package.  BiFab was facing the threat of administration with the loss of 1,400 jobs at yards in Fife and Lewis. The First Minister held talks with the firms in Edinburgh yesterday following a dispute which led to cash-flow problems. At the centre of it was an argument between the company and the Dutch-owned contractor, Seaway Heavy Lifting (SHL) over a payment. The agreement brokered by Sturgeon will see BiFab receiving payments to alleviate the firm’s “immediate cash flow issues”.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/bifab-closure-threat-lifted

Here’s what Unite Scotland secretary Pat Rafferty said after his meeting with the Scottish Government before the meeting with the companies involved:

‘I think we’ve had a good positive meeting with the Scottish Government today and a number of options we know are being explored. They are leaving no stone unturned and we are confident they are working alongside us and will continue working alongside us to try and get a resolution to this and try and protect these 1400 jobs in these three yards.’

http://www.scotsman.com/regions/edinburgh-fife-lothians/positive-bifab-talks-between-unions-and-scottish-government-1-4614566

His optimism was well-judged. I can imagine how GMS and Revolting Scotland will cover this but I’m trying not to.

(c) timeout.com

The Global Destination Sustainability Index awards for 2017 placed Glasgow up three places in the index and with a 16% increase in its overall score since last year.  These awards are based on the attractiveness of the city in terms of its sustainable business tourism. The GDS-index methodology: ‘measures and compares the social and environmental sustainability strategies, policies and performance of the participating destinations.’

Placing on the index depends on performance measured by these four criteria:

1. A key element of the GDS-Index is to determine a destination’s environmental performance. We do this by examining aspects like a destinations air quality, their use of renewable energy sources and the performance of their public transport and waste disposal infrastructure.
2. In a holistic approach to sustainability, the GDS-Index factors in the social performance of a destination, including elements such as the city’s United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) score and ranking in global corruption indices.
3. For an events industry specific analysis, the GDS-Index evaluates the sustainable practices of industry suppliers such as hotels, caterers and venues.
4. The role Convention Bureaux play in the sustainability performance of their destination is central to GDS-Index benchmarking. Convention Bureau performance is based on their sustainability strategy and reporting, the client support offered and their role in promoting sustainability in the industry.

In addition to its overall improvement, Glasgow won two first place awards:

1. Category leader: Most improved award
2. Category leader: Convention bureau performance

Evidence of the city’s development can also be seen in the fact that, in 2016/17, in a best-ever performance, Glasgow won more than 500 new international and UK conferences worth a total of £142m.

http://gds-index.com/about/

Dear green place? Well not too dear, we hope.

Footnote: I’ve been round and round the website but I can’t find an league table of global cities to find Glasgow’s actual position on it.

In September 2017, the FT reported that Hinkley Point C was initially guaranteed £92.50 MWh but that this was inflation-linked and is already closer to £100/MWh. The guarantee also stands for 35 years so who knows what the ongoing costs to the UK consumer will be and, of course, de-commissioning costs won’t even be considered. However, In the latest auction with the UK government, offshore wind energy developers offered prices as low as £57.50 per megawatt hour (MWh).

https://www.ft.com/content/7401f5e0-96c0-11e7-a652-cde3f882dd7b

So, a nuclear is a very bad deal indeed for the UK consumer but not for us given that we must surely break away long before 35 years have passed. Now a new study published today in partnership between battery developer Eaton, the Renewable Energy Association (REA) and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) suggests further reductions to around half of current costs and consequently around a quarter of the cost of nuclear-generated electricity. Depending on inflation, the gap could be even wider. I thus make the cancellation of Hinckley Point C a no-brainer but no doubt it will go ahead for political reasons.

An earlier study by BNEF predicted that 75% of around $10 trillion global investment in energy technologies by 2040 will go to renewable forms. Given Scotland’s early lead in wind and tidal energy generation and our growing expertise in the field, we can look forward with confidence. See:

Scotland’s expertise in renewable power generation now worth billions

Scotland’s European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) to be test centre for 3 out of 6 new EU-funded offshore renewable energy projects as our expertise begins to earn billions

https://www.r-e-a.net/news/high-renewable-future-in-the-uk-and-germany-to-create-new-power-systems-flexibility-challenge

According to accountants KPMG and reported in Insider, Scotland has made significant productivity gains in the past 18 months and now ranks above all parts of the UK other than London and the South which continue to suck the life out of the other regions in terms of material, human, social, intellectual and of course financial capital. Even the BBC agrees with this view of London:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10508673

Out of the 12 regions in the UK, Scotland came 4^th top. Scotland did especially well on innovation and its pool of available talent. Perhaps being further away and with a higher quality of life, Scotland is able to hang on to more of its talent that the English regions and Wales. In terms of the talent coming from its universities, Scotland came second only to London.

http://www.insider.co.uk/news/scotland-ranks-fourth-inaugural-uk-11535768

It’s worth remembering that the high productivity of London and the South does not compensate for their massive trade deficit and that only Scotland has a surplus in this regard. See:

Scotland’s 2017 trade surplus grows as England’s deficit soars saddling the UK with ever more debt

The role of the Scottish Government needs mentioning here too given their initiatives to boost business activity. See, recently:

Business booms in Scotland under SNP-rule

77% of Scotland’s small and medium-sized businesses report success as Scottish Government reports record numbers exempt from rates and in the wake of figures revealing much greater signs of distress among rUK businesses.

I know governments do not create wealth, but they do help produce the conditions in which it can be created. Had Scotland’s performance been worse, we can be sure the SNP would be to blame in some way.