I wrote this in July:
Not many people seemed to take it seriously and mainstream media persisted with tales of an industry in trouble. I’ve kept reporting every story of oil recovery I can find despite my preference for green energy solutions because that same media and their Unionist political co-travellers have delighted in telling Scots it’s all over and that we’d have an economy like Greece if we’d become independent by 2016. Now, it’s their game that is over as Reuters report in CNBC that £100 per barrel is likely even sooner than I predicted (2020) in 2018! See this:
‘LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) – When crude prices crashed in early 2016 to $27 per barrel, most industry executives said the world had seen the last of oil at $100. Almost two years later, as a global crude glut shows signs of receding, the oil options market has seen a spike in activity at $100 a barrel, indicating some oil bulls are betting the price could trade around that level by this time next year. The oil price has hit its highest since 2015 and after having shied away from $60 a barrel this week, the chances of a rally beyond this point seem remote. But that hasn’t stopped some punters from snapping up December 2018 buy options at $100 at bargain-basement prices.’
Now these punters are not like the Edinburgh professor who predicted only ten years of oil left in the North Sea. Unlike him they have something to lose if they’re wrong – millions of dollars. I know who I believe.
Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand, said in the FT in August:
‘In 2014, after four years at being around $110 a barrel, most analysts were saying wed never see prices go back below $100 … Now everyone is arguing were never going back there, but I don’t really buy that the cost of production has gone down structurally or that electric cars will have a big enough impact on demand.’
I’ve reported before that if the USA started right now to replace all its transport system with electric vehicles it would take 12 years and as for India with its millions of new petrol-driven car owners every year well…..