Is Scotland being dragged under by London and the South’s massive trade deficit as the consequent debt mountain frustrates the Chancellor?



I read in the Guardian today that the gap between UK government spending and tax revenue is expected to be around £7 billion frustrating Chancellor Philip Hammond’s attempt to give his cabinet colleagues what they want – less austerity please.

The problem is the massive gap between exports and imports in London and the South of England, regardless of their higher productivity.


Like Ancient Rome, London, the over-heated and gluttonous region, is in danger of imploding and dragging the rest of the country under. This is especially ironic given Scotland’s consistent trade surplus over decades which would have required no borrowing whatsoever. We know not to trust the ideologically-generated and frankly useless GERS figures which dreamt up a revenue deficit for Scotland. See:

The Scottish Sun’s grammatically incorrect but politically correct and helpfully blunt assessment of GERS

25 of the 26 GERS income figures are estimates and not the real figures!

Here’s a reminder of the Scottish trade surplus:

Deficit/Surplus in 2017 (Predicted)

England           -£128 200 000 000

Wales              –£700 000 000

Scotland          +£4 300 000 000

N Ireland         +£1 100 000 000

Deficit/Surplus in 2016

England           -£120 038 000 000

Wales              –£55 000 000

Scotland          +£2 148 000 000

N Ireland         –£4 039 000 000 

Deficit/Surplus in 2015

England           -£110 358 000 000

Wales              –£1 600 000 000

Scotland          +£4 124 000 000

N Ireland         –£2 311 00 000

Deficit/Surplus in 2014

England           -113 877 000 000

Wales              –£2 544 000 000

Scotland          +7 917 000 000

N Ireland         –£2 106 000 000

I couldn’t trace the equivalent data for before 2014 but there looks like a wee trend there with England’s trade deficit having cost us billions and consequently having lumbered us with the massive debts which the austerity programme was supposed to clear but could not. I can’t see why we’d leave the Union owing them any share of the UK debt whatsoever when we clearly didn’t incur it. Further, is rUK strong enough to be an independent country?

6 thoughts on “Is Scotland being dragged under by London and the South’s massive trade deficit as the consequent debt mountain frustrates the Chancellor?

  1. Ludo Thierry November 21, 2017 / 5:53 pm

    Hi John – yes indeed – seeing the graph does bring home just how the local economies of London and South East England are experiencing a very dramatic gap between exports and imports. The London economy, in particular, is so overheated by the ‘tributes’ demanded from Scotland and r-UK (beyond London and South East) and the very major ‘multiplier’ effects as these ‘tributes’ are spent in such a relatively constrained geographic area (although heavily populated with the younger, higher skilled, better educated workforce plundered from the Atlantic archipelago and well beyond) is resulting in intolerable strains within the wider UK economy as the self-perpetuating elites try to damp down demand in rest of rUK with their austerity obsession.

    Some of these strains are being identified in surprising places by surprising people. Saw on beeb Jockland website that a Councillor in Moray today resigned from the Tory group and the Tory Party due to the “swingeing cuts” being proposed by the Tory led council. (See below):

    Walter Wilson said he had left the Conservative Party as well as the Conservative and independent coalition.

    The Speyside Glenlivet councillor blamed “swingeing” cuts being proposed.

    He said he was still a “social conservative” but could not sit alongside “right wing extremists”

    SNP Moray MSP Richard Lochhead said: “Ruth Davidson must immediately order an investigation into her Moray organisation.

    “Many local people will be troubled that some of the elected representatives who run Moray Council are deemed to be extremists by a colleague.”

    The Colonel will be grinding her teeth in fury. All is not well amongst the ranks – decent Tories are finding courage to challenge what is going on. This is a very good omen

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Ludo Thierry November 21, 2017 / 7:14 pm

    Hi John – Hi M. le Panda. I take your point, John, about the general dearth of ‘compassionate conservatism’ that is often to be found – It is worth noting here that newly Independent councillor Walter Wilson has given up approx £10,000 p.a. responsibility allowance – so it is something that he is taking pretty seriously I suspect. Cheers, ludo

    Liked by 1 person

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