Talking-up Scotland

(c) PA

From the Scottish Government website on 27th:

‘Long-term risk due to UK Government welfare cuts. Independent analysis due to be published alongside the Scottish Government’s first Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan shows the extent of damage caused by UK Government welfare cuts. The analysis outlines projections of child poverty rates in Scotland on the basis of announced tax and benefit changes, and the consequent increases in poverty levels.’

Communities Secretary Angela Constance said:

‘This reveals the long-term damage of UK Government welfare cuts and austerity, with alarming increases across every measure of child poverty. We know the damage that has been caused already, but what alarms me is that the worst is still to come, with £4 billion annual cuts by the end of this decade set to take a stark toll on families and children. Addressing inequalities is core to everything we do to make Scotland fairer and more equal. That includes spending over £100 million every year to protect people from the worst impact of UK Government welfare cuts – money that could be better spent on preventing poverty.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/tackling-child-poverty-2

Scotland is the only part of the UK with statutory targets to tackle child poverty marking its government out as one which cares more for the people than the rich elites and corporations at the heart of the Tory party’s loyalties.

After 10 years of SNP-rule, none of Scotland’s local authorities feature in the 25 worst in the UK for child poverty:

http://www.endchildpoverty.org.uk/more-than-half-of-children-now-living-in-poverty-in-some-parts-of-the-uk/

Footnote: Scotland now has the lowest level of adult poverty outside of the South of England. See:

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/uk-poverty-2017

The Dundee Courier, today, claimed:

‘Hydrogen-powered buses to put Dundee at forefront of green travel. Dundee is to get 12 hydrogen fuel cell buses in a bid to reduce emissions in the city as part of ambitious plans to promote environmentally-friendly transport. Both Dundee and Aberdeen are receiving the environmentally-friendly vehicles as part of a Europe-wide project to deploy 152 hydrogen fuel cell buses across 14 cities.’

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/dundee/626337/hydrogen-powered-buses-to-put-dundee-at-forefront-of-green-travel/

However, back in October 2017, CNBC claimed:

‘Aberdeen already has 10 in use and will receive another 10 as part of the new deal, making it one of the largest fleets in Europe.’

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/20/europes-oil-capital-turns-to-clean-green-hydrogen-buses.html

Can one eat a peh on a Dundee bus? The consequent gas would take hours to emerge.

I can’t help but think that London could do with a lot more than 10 or 12 to deal with the pollution there.

Headlined in the Independent yesterday:

‘NHS finances in ‘perilous state’, says damning Public Accounts Committee report’

The report goes on to say:

‘The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) accused the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) and NHS England of being “too focused on propping up the system” and neglecting to plan ahead. The National Health Service continues to scrape by on emergency handouts and funds that were intended for essential investment,” PAC chair Meg Hillier said. The committee cited last winter’s NHS crisis as evidence of the Government’s short-term approach, since despite early warnings of a looming healthcare emergency, Chancellor Philip Hammond waited until November to announce additional funding.’

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-funding-perilous-jeremy-hunt-simon-stevens-public-accounts-comittee-a8274726.html

In sharp contrast, Audit Scotland, reported in October 2017:

‘Analysis of a range of measures indicates there were no significant weaknesses in the overall quality of care being provided by the NHS in 2016/17. The Scottish Government has a consistent and long-standing vision of how it wants healthcare to look in the future. For well over a decade, successive Scottish Governments have had a policy of integrating health and care services to improve the health of the population. A healthy population served by a high-quality healthcare system is central to  the Scottish Government’s ambition to create ‘a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth.’

http://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/uploads/docs/report/2017/nr_171026_nhs_overview.pdf

So, the message for Theresa May on her unconvincing, whistle-stop tour today, must be:

‘Get back to Westminster and get on with your job.’

(c) Iberdrola

From Energy Voice yesterday:

‘Scotland could soon host the UK’s first ever subsidy-free onshore wind farm, industry chiefs suggested yesterday…. “Someone in this room today will manage that feat,” Rachel Anderson, head of external affairs at green power firm RES, said at the Scottish Renewables conference in Edinburgh.’’

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/167290/could-scotland-see-the-first-subsidy-free-onshore-wind-farm/

This is important news set against a background of diminishing UK government support for, especially, windfarms. It comes after earlier signs of the increasing competitiveness of renewables reported here:

Scotland’s world-first offshore wind farm electricity to cost less than half that of Hinkley Point C nuclear and has ability to withstand hurricanes.

Scottish electricity generation from renewables costs to fall to a quarter of nuclear costs by 2040

Subsidy costs for Scottish off-shore wind and tidal energy farms likely to fall below those needed for new nuclear plants making the latter an even more stupid choice

Based on the above trends, I’d have said subsidy-free renewables electricity production was already on the way, anyway.

(c) Madeleine Donahue

Today, BBC Scotland headlined:

‘Clutter’ of strategies stifling Scotland’s growth, say economists’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-43559165

The economists in question are from the Fraser of Allander Institute. You might remember them. They wrongly predicted a recession in the Scottish economy back in early 2017. You’ll see from the title of the piece I wrote then (link below) what I think of their abilities:

Scotland in recession? No, the economy is growing. Are the Fraser of Allander Institute and its media followers talking through holes in their bahookies?

The FAI is a right-wing, neo-liberal, Union-supporting bunch of ‘researchers’ who like to call themselves ‘independent.’ The BBC likes to use them, when they can, to cast doubt on the health of the Scottish economy. Their latest report, according to BBC Scotland, suggests:

‘Scotland’s growth is being held back by the clutter of initiatives coming from the Scottish government, according to a leading economic think tank. The Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) has criticised the number of different strategies and advisory groups looking at Scotland’s economy. It has warned they can lead to confusion and duplication.’

They are far from ‘leading’ as is apparent in the lack of hard evidence for their thesis. I have a feeling that if we had less initiatives, they’d be complaining about the gaps in the strategy. Perhaps most important, their narrow focus on growth, as in GDP, reveals them to be well behind the curve. Leading economists, these days, have turned away from using GDP. See this from real professor Richard Murphy at City University in London:

‘There will, no doubt, be those saying that low GDP growth (and none in terms of GDP per head) is bad news for Scotland. This, though, assumes that, first of all the GDP data is right, and second that GDP matters. There is no way we can be sure that the GDP data for Scotland is right because the calculation of GDP requires accurate data on imports and exports from Scotland and all experts agree that Scotland does not have that information. In that case whether or not the data is accurate depends upon whether or not a fair proportion of estimates to and from Scotland to the rest of the world, as well as to and from the rest of the UK, are correctly estimated. I have my doubts about this and explained why to the Scottish Parliament last year……We now know that GDP is a poor indication of well-being. In particular, the share of wages in GDP has been falling steadily over time whilst that of profits has been rising…..The Scottish Government would be wise to adopt increases in median pay as its economic goal and stop worrying about the nearly meaningless Scottish GDP measure that is beloved only by those who do not seem to have the best interests of Scottish people at heart.’

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/about/

Also, see this from really-leading economists at Davos:

‘Three leading economists and academics at Davos agree: GDP is a poor way of assessing the health of our economies and we urgently need to find a new measure. Speaking in different sessions, IMF head Christine Lagarde, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, and MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson stressed that as the world changes, so too should the way we measure progress. A country’s GDP is an estimate of the total value of goods and services they produce. But even when the concept was first developed back in the late 1930s, the man behind it, Simon Kuznets, warned it was not a suitable measure of a country’s economic development: “He understood that GDP is not a welfare measure, it is not a measure of how well we are all doing. It counts the things that we’re buying and selling, but it’s quite possible for GDP to go in the opposite direction of welfare” ‘

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/gdp/

Finally, real evidence that the Scottish economy is robust can be found in a wide range of indicators reported here in previous months. See, for example:

Scottish economy is thriving on innovation as patent filing runs at 4 times the UK rate

And more evidence of a strong economy: starting salaries in Scotland increase at quickest rate for more than 3 years

Scottish Chambers of Commerce survey suggests 2018 will be a good year for the Scottish Economy

17% increase in number of Scots planning to start a new business as Scottish economy strengthens

Reports of a strong Scottish economy just keep coming. Now debt decrees down 93% in the last three months

Clear signs of a robust economy? 15% increase in Edinburgh office take-up in 2017 and Glasgow set for a ‘stellar 12 months.’

Scottish businesses continue to show signs of health with insolvencies down 23% as the Scottish economy holds strong

The Auditor General strongly, with no qualifications, commends the Scottish Government on its ‘sound’ management of the economy. The lowest under-spend since devolution.

With only 8% of the population, Scotland’s maritime sector accounts for 25% of the UK maritime sector’s (GVA) contribution to the economy and is 17.5% more productive than the UK marine oil and gas sector. Once more, too wee, too poor?

12% increase in the formation of social enterprises in Scotland over only 2 years leads to a £2 billion economic contribution to Scottish economy.

England runs massive trade deficit. Only Scotland has a viable sustainable economy, exporting more than she imports thus requiring no national debt

I could give you more.

From the just-released Scottish Crime and Justice Survey 2016/17, it is clear that as crime falls, Scots are feeling safer. The graph above shows the quite dramatic fall in overall crime in the ten years of SNP government. Governments of the day always feel at least partly justified in claiming some credit, for the obvious reason that, were crime climbing, they’d be blamed for it. Violent crime, in particular, has fallen with a 27% drop in all violent crimes since 2008/2009. Reasons for falling crime are, of course, complex and contested with factors such as freely available contraception and lowered lead-levels in the environment, given credit, along with improved policing and better government policies. See this for more:

As major global cities like London struggle with pollution, levels in Scotland have dropped by more than 66% since 1990. Has this contributed to falling crime levels too?

These changes have also resulted in more Scots reporting confidence in walking alone after dark in their local area. See this:

Finally, Scots continue to report lower levels of experience of crime than those in England and Wales. See this:

This ten-year trend contrasts markedly with the situation as recently as 2005. See this:

Scotland has second highest murder rate in Europe: https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/sep/26/ukcrime.scotland

Interestingly, speaking to a few people in their late seventies or early eighties, few believed that these changes were taking place. I suppose you’d only have to watch TV news or read a local newspaper to see why they might think so.

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00533412.pdf

The old stereotype is fading other than in the tired repertoire of airheaded English comedians. Scotland, we know has a fast-falling violent crime rate with far less knife crime than elsewhere in the UK, especially London, and a lower rate of violent crime in our cities than in any of the English cities. See these for more:

Of 35 children and teenagers killed with knives in Britain in 2017, not one was in Scotland, yet in 2005, the UN called Scotland the most violent country in the developed world.

Murders and serious assaults continue downward trend in Scotland to below that of Sweden.

Scotland’s university cities by far the safest places to send your children

The ‘Sick man of Europe’ image is still with us but must surely pass away with my generation. See, for example:

Scottish stillbirth and early infant death rates lowest in the UK and approaching lowest in the world

‘Children’s doctors are praising Scottish Government for its commitment to child health’

Now, we see evidence of the main factor underpinning our old stereotype, ‘the drink’, also diminishing. The chart above is from an ONS report, which I can’t trace but also in a BBC report today with, of course, no proper referencing. It’s only one measure, I appreciate, but it’s quite a good indicator of our changing relationship with alcohol.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43492043

Sláinte gan alcól!

From the Information Services Division:

‘In 2015, 31,467 people were diagnosed with cancer in Scotland. The number of people diagnosed has increased over the last ten years from 27,494.’

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications/2017-04-25/Cancer_in_Scotland_summary_m.pdf

Those are the most recent data, published in 2018, and represent a 14.45% increase in only ten years.

Despite this massive increase in demand, NHS Scotland were able to begin treatment of 87.1% of patients within the 62-day standard. In NHS England, only 82.07% began treatment within 62 days.

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Waiting-Times/Publications/2018-03-27/2018-03-27-CWT-Summary.pdf?12511843443

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/cancer-waiting-times/quarterly-comm-cwt/201617-quarterly-commissioner-based-cancer-waiting-times-statistics/commissioner-based-cancer-waiting-times-for-q3-201617/

Needless to say, the Herald report concentrated on scare rather than facts. The headline was:

‘Analysis: Long-term solution needed to avoid more years of delayed treatment’

The report then continued with

‘In the last five consecutive years, cancer waiting times targets have not been hit once across Scotland.  To ensure we do not see a repeat of this worrying statistic long-term action is needed.’

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16120802.Analysis__Long_term_solution_needed_to_avoid_more_years_of_delayed_treatment/

Maybe I’m being a bit pedantic but, accepting that the writer means, underlined above, what his syntax means, then he is wrong – the 62-day standard was met by four NHS Boards: NHS Borders, NHS Dumfries & Galloway, NHS Lanarkshire and NHS Orkney.

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications/2017-04-25/Cancer_in_Scotland_summary_m.pdf

Even the Daily Mail can report good news for Scotland, it seems. See this today:

Mary´s Meals now feeding 1.25 million children every school day

‘A charity that provides school meals to impoverished children around the world is now helping more than 1.25 million youngsters following an expansion of its programme. Mary’s Meals said the first few months of this year have seen it reach an additional 20,822 vulnerable children in Zambia and Ethiopia. It means the Scottish-based charity is now providing 1,257,278 of the world’s poorest children with a nutritious daily school meal, bosses said.’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-5547285/Mary-s-Meals-feeding-1-25-million-children-school-day.html

This report comes after a string of comparably heart-warming reports of Scots making a contribution beyond our shores. See these:

Scotland’s world-leading expertise to the fore again in India and Bangladesh

Scotland’s tidal energy expertise to help poor communities in South-East Asia

Scottish research to be used in $1.2 billion initiative to help poor Indian farmers

University of Dundee awarded £7 million to work in partnership with India to fight diabetes

 

Here’s today’s Scotsman headline:

‘SNP accused of registering new website for Indyref2 campaign’

The report goes on to say:

‘The SNP has declined to explain the reason for the new site. Scottish Conservative deputy leader Jackson Carlaw told The Herald newspaper: “This shows that while Nicola Sturgeon was pretending to the people of Scotland she was pausing the independence agitation, her party machine was doing the very opposite. Despite accepting the voters didn’t want another referendum, her IT elves were busy building the online foundation for another push.”’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/snp-accused-of-registering-new-website-for-indyref2-campaign-1-4713380

I’ll leave the opportunity given to Jerkson Carping for a wee Tory rant. However, am I missing something here? Remind me what does SNP mean? Why are they ‘accused’? Imagine we read:

‘UKIP accused of registering new website for hard Brexit campaign’

‘USA accused of registering new website for promotion of US values’

‘Tories accused of registering new website for promotion of ‘Greed is good’ campaign’

‘Scotsman accused of registering new website in desperate attempt to get readers’

I’ve been accused of only reporting good things about independence for Scotland. I have. It’s true.