SNP pull further ahead of Tories and Labour

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The Kantar poll of 18+adults’ Westminster voting intentions, collected between 5th and 9th July 2018, gives the following percentages:

  • SNP             39%
  • Conservatives 20%
  • Labour 19%
  • Lib Dems             4%
  • Other 5%
  • Prefer not to say 14%

This gives SNP support alone equal to the combined Conservative and Labour support. The raw data actually put the SNP 1 ahead, with 34 respondents as opposed to 33 (17 and 16) for Conservatives and Labour.

Also, of interest, the SNP attracted 40% of female respondents and only 30% of male respondents but a whopping 61% of the under 55s.

The recent Wings/Panelbase figures were:

  • SNP 38%
  • Conservatives 27%
  • Labour 25%
  • Liberal Democrats 7%
  • Greens 2%

While the quite large percentage of ‘prefer not to say’ respondents, in the Kantar poll, limits comparisons between the two polls, I am not aware of any reason to think they are likely to represent supporters any one party more than the others, so these data may well suggest further disillusionment with the Tory Brexit disaster and with Labour’s weak opposition to them/it, in the 10 or so days that separate them.

Accepting the above, the small sample, and the limitations in all polling, I think we can, nevertheless, take heart in what seem to be signs of growing strength in SNP support and decline in that for the Conservative and Labour parties in Scotland.

http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/sites/tns-bmrb/files/July%202018%20-%20Voting%20Intention%20tables.pdf

 

Is BBC Scotland exploiting patients with mental health problems to construct an ill-founded attack on NHS Tayside?

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After a quiet spell, BBC Scotland has returned to its proxy war strategy against the SNP using exaggerated and distorted tales of problems within NHS Scotland. They tend to be insensitive stories but the latest is particularly so, using anecdotal evidence from only 24 patients who approached them directly out of the ‘hundreds’ treated annually in Tayside’s Carseview unit.

Here’s the essence of the scare story, developed into a ‘documentary’ and repeated regularly:

‘An MSP has called for a Dundee mental health unit to be put into crisis measures following revelations in a BBC Scotland documentary.  Former patients at Carseview told the Breaking Point programme they were pinned to the floor and bullied on wards where illegal drugs were rife. Dundee-based Labour MSP Jenny Marra said the allegations were “horrifically worrying.”’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-44778332

The documentary lacks the qualities of any good documentary relying entirely, as it does, on recollections from a very small self-selecting sample of often-traumatised patients, who have come forward, and the partisan comments of an opposition politician. Given the often-traumatic life-threatening nature of mental health conditions and the difficulty in treating sometimes terrified patients, mistakes will be made by staff with the best of intentions. As for the intentions of the BBC Scotland reporters, we’ve learned to suspect them.

There is, of course, reliable evidence to suggest that the reported incidents which, of course, must be investigated, are not representative of the unit or of the majority of its staff. The Review of Adult Mental Health Services in Tayside on 7–9 December 2017 by Healthcare Improvement Scotland found no major concerns of this kind at all. The full report can be read at:

http://www.healthcareimprovementscotland.org/our_work/governance_and_assurance/programme_resources/tayside_mental_health_review.aspx

Health Improvement Scotland is independent and has previously demonstrated its rigorous and critical approach resulting in fearless condemnation where it is required. See, for example, this on Aberdeen Royal Infirmary:

Healthcare Improvement Scotland (HIS) warned of “widespread disengagement” of medical staff and “unprofessional conduct” by senior doctors. It also criticised a “dysfunctional surgical unit” and failures in performance management and in addressing earlier concerns highlighted by the General Medical Council (GMC).

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/542948/Staffing-crisis-Aberdeen-hospital-could-threaten-patient-safety

and this:

‘Inspectors have ordered a health board to tighten procedures after badly stained mattresses were found on wards at Hairmyres Hospital in East Kilbride.’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-21367040

During the Review of Adult Mental Health Services in Tayside, HIS spoke with:

  • patients
  • ward staff
  • community-based staff
  • health and social care staff
  • senior managers
  • operational managers, and
  • community managers.

Why is there nothing in the report comparable to that in BBC Scotland’s coverage?

HIS noted areas where adult mental health services in Tayside are performing well:

  • Staff we spoke with were well motivated with a recovery-focused and person-centred approach to care.
  • The senior management team appeared to be cohesive, with a view to provide high quality care to patients whilst reviewing challenges in relation to finance and resourcing. Staff told us that leadership was clearly visible in the ward areas.
  • Many of the community mental health nurses were following independent practice and critical thinking and were involved in high levels of decision making. This was reflected in the number of charge nurses (Band 6) and senior charge nurses (Band 7) in post. These community mental health nurses also had the opportunity to develop their skills further.
  • The ‘mental illness partnership project’ between NHS Tayside and Police Scotland was a good example of inter-agency working. We were told that over 75 police officers have received training from mental health professionals to help them provide support to people in times of need.
  • The crisis resolution and home treatment team was organised and well resourced. There were clear and established processes for collecting meaningful data to enable the team to make informed decisions to improve the quality of care they provided.

HIS noted areas where adult mental health services in Tayside could make improvements:

  • With regards to ensuring that clinical staff maintain the necessary knowledge and skills to deliver high quality care, we were told NHS Tayside is developing a training strategy that reflects both current need and considers future demands aligned to the Transformational Nursing Agenda. This is a national approach reflecting how nursing, as a profession, will need to evolve including consideration to the development and professional positioning in an integration Health and Social Partnership context. We acknowledge that the partnerships have significant challenges in recruiting and retaining psychiatrists, however we were told that efforts are being made to establish posts that offer clinical and academic combined opportunities.
  • There was inconsistency with regards to psychiatric consultants. High numbers of locum psychiatrists are employed in the inpatient facilities and community areas. We were told that this has been challenging for staff and those who use the services. Patients told us that they were frustrated by the number of different psychiatrists they were in contact with. This can cause problems in building therapeutic relationships and trust.
  • The consistent use of locum psychiatrists has reduced the opportunity for medical learning and minimised the opportunities for medical leadership to evolve.
  • Although the general environment in the Carsview Centre was good, improvements and adjustments could be made. Making adjustments will ensure patients are cared for in a less restrictive environment, whilst ensuring appropriate levels of safety and encouraging recovery.
  • There was an inequity of service for patients who live in Angus. For example, patients in this area do not receive 7-day intensive home treatment support. In some instances, patients have had to be admitted to hospital as no support was available at the weekend. This could also have an impact on the support needed by patients when they are discharged from hospital.
  • The Angus health and social care partnership should review their current provision and consider a 7-day service for patients in Angus.
  • Psychiatrists and junior doctors did not document risk assessment details or contribute to patients’ care plans. This could weaken the consistency of care approach or interventions.

Plenty there for a real documentary? Since the BBC ‘documentary’ was aired, we read in the Daily Record:

NHS staff have been offered counselling to cope with the trauma of watching a BBC documentary criticising an under-fire mental health unit.  Experts have been put on standby to support doctors and nurses at the Carseview Centre, in Dundee , who may be adversely affected by the hard-hitting programme.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/anger-over-mental-health-unit-12885078

 

Scotland getting 54% more than London in infrastructure output per person

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A report published today by Scape Group, a public-sector procurement specialist, found that:

‘Scotland saw 54 per cent more infrastructure output per person than London, last year.​ It also revealed that Scotland came out top in cumulative infrastructure output per person between 1997 and 2017.​’

The graph above shows that this has increased notably in the latter years of the SNP administration.

 

What exactly is infrastructure output and why does it matter?

Well, see this from the US government in March this year:

‘An ambitious infrastructure investment program is estimated to raise welfare, increase GDP, and improve labour market opportunities and outcomes particularly for less educated workers. While the particular structure and details of the infrastructure program ultimately adopted will affect its subsequent future impacts, CEA believes the program’s overall value will be considerable.’

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/The-Economic-Benefits-and-Impacts-of-Expanded-Infrastructure-Investment.pdf

The full Scape report also clarifies the importance of investing in infrastructure:

‘In the last 20 years, Scotland has seen a significant increase in infrastructure output, rising from £1.09 billion in 1997 to £2.74 billion in 2017. There is a wealth of opportunity in Scotland as the Scottish Government and local authorities recognise the importance of delivering infrastructure to unlock economic growth.’ Upfront investment in infrastructure and major regeneration plans are unlocking cities and towns, attracting new businesses and enabling places to grow and flourish. Transport infrastructure is key in Scotland, as it is elsewhere in the UK. Scotland has also recognised the importance of training the next generation of skilled construction workers with recent figures revealing that the number of Scottish construction apprentices has grown for the seventh consecutive year.’

https://www.scapegroup.co.uk/uploads/research/Scape-Group-Essential-Infrastructure-2018.pdf

So, it’s logical. If you spend on roads, rail, digital links, housing, hospitals and the many other elements of infrastructure, you get wider unplanned benefits as businesses and workers exploit the links to benefit the economy and society.

 

The Scottish Government is spending much more on infrastructure

See this from December 2017:

‘Public spending on economic growth is set to rise to more than double the level by the UK Government, according to Finance Secretary Derek Mackay.  Reflecting the Scottish Government’s determination to seize opportunity and grow Scotland’s economy, the growth package will see spending on the economy increase by 64% – an increase of £270 million – in 2018-19. Even before the Draft Budget was presented, the Scottish Government was investing more in economic development than the rest of the UK. Spending on economic development last year was equivalent to £193 per head in Scotland, compared to £88 per head in the UK as a whole.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/a-budget-for-business

 

Scotland second after only London in attracting foreign investment

FDI2018

(c) fDi magazine (February 2018)

From the Press & Journal today:

‘Scotland has been named the second most attractive location in the UK for foreign direct investment (FDI) after London, for the fifth consecutive year. This second-place ranking is shared, for the first time since 2013, with the north-west of England with both locations securing seven of the UK’s 78 FDI projects in 2017 while first-placed London attracted 47. The results have been taken from new data from EY’s 2018 UK Attractiveness Report released today.’

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/1516052/scotland-second-most-attractive-location-in-fdi-ranking/

You’ll see from the table above how Scotland compares with regions and nasecent states in Europe and, as always here, this good news comes as only the latest in a stream going back for some time. See:

8% of the population yet 9.6% of the UK’s foreign direct investment – another confidence boost

Investment rises as Scottish firms report confidence in growth for 2018

One more indicator of economic well-being as Investment in Glasgow office property surges four-fold and Scotland ‘very much on the wish list’

Best UK city for inward investment is Edinburgh

More real economic data: 37% surge in investment in Scottish commercial property, greater diversity and higher profitability than in the UK

 

Business activity soars to four-year high across manufacturing and service

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(c) Business for Scotland

From Insider today:

‘Private sector business activity in Scotland in the second quarter rose at its quickest rate since August 2014, according to the Royal Bank of Scotland’s PMI Index. The inflows of new work rising at the fastest pace in almost four years prompted firms to hike employment markedly. The figures also show that growth across both the manufacturing and service sectors continued.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/private-sector-business-activity-q2-12881805

And, this is not unusual news. See these recent examples of more good news on the Scottish economy than a national broadcaster could be expected to digest:

Business confidence in Scotland soars by 24% while it sinks 29% in non-Scottish parts of UK

Scottish businesses more likely to be stable than those in rest of UK: News from a parallel universe unknown to our mainstream media

Scottish Government supports economy with new business rates unique in UK

Scottish business confidence higher than in any other region of UK

‘Gales of creative destruction’ as Scottish small businesses get 50% of public sector spend? In the ‘UK’, it’s only 19%.

Business confidence high across Scotland. 80% of Highlands and Islands businesses optimistic about future

 

At 78% level of satisfaction with NHS Scotland is impressive 36% higher than for the NHS across UK

1445009458Slide2Involvingpatientsandpublicinhealthresearch2

(c) nhsresearchscotland

From STV today:

Nearly four in five Scots are satisfied with the country’s health service, according to an exclusive survey for STV News. The ScotPulse study, which spoke to 1123 respondents, also found that 61% of people would be happy to pay higher taxes for their treatment on the NHS. Satisfaction levels with the Scottish health service sit at 78%, with 31% saying there are “very satisfied”, nearly half of Scots (47%) “quite satisfied” and 13% dissatisfied. This rises to 82% overall satisfaction for people with children but falls to around a quarter (74%) for those living in the north of Scotland.’

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1421917-four-in-five-scots-satisfied-with-the-health-service/

The latest UK-wide survey by Nat Cen paints a very different picture. See these key points:

  • Public satisfaction with the NHS overall was 57% in 2017 – a 6 percentage point drop from the previous year. At the same time, dissatisfaction with the NHS overall increased by 7 percentage points to 29% – its highest level since 2007.
  • Older people were more satisfied than younger people: 64% of those aged 65 and over were satisfied with the NHS in 2017 compared to 55% of those aged 18 to 64. Between 2016 and 2017, satisfaction fell among all age groups.

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/public-satisfaction-nhs-2017

So, with satisfaction at 78%, NHS Scotland satisfies 36% more of the Scottish population than the combined NHS does across the UK. Given that there are Scottish responses in and perhaps boosting the UK figures, we might find that satisfaction levels with the NHS, in the non-Scottish parts of the UK, are lower than 57%.

Scottish retail sales ‘soar’ as they fall for fifth month in the non-Scottish parts of the UK after ‘bleak and crippling’ start to year ‘there’

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In the Guardian today:

‘UK high street sales fall for fifth month running. Survey says ‘bleak and crippling start to the year shows no sign of abating’. UK high street sales fell 1.7% year-on-year in June, the fifth consecutive month of falling sales, according to data released by advisory firm BDO, which bases its finding on a survey of mostly medium-sized retail businesses. It is the first time in at least 12 years that in-store growth had not topped 1% in a single month for the first half of a calendar year.’

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/06/uk-high-street-sales-fall-for-fifth-month-running

I don’t have the Scottish June figures but, for May 2018, reported on June 13th, see this:

‘Scottish retail sales soar in May. Total retail sales in Scotland increased by 2.6% in May compared to a decrease of 0.2% in May 2017, the Scottish Retail Consortium reports, as good weather and bank holiday encouraged shoppers. The SRC said these figures were the best on record since January 2014 – excluding Easter distortions.’

https://www.drapersonline.com/news/scottish-retail-sales-soar-in-may/7030788.article

Good news is flooding in this morning so I’ll leave this short.

‘The number of finance jobs in Scotland grew by nearly 7% in the past year. That’s a faster pace than any other part of the UK’ says BBC Scotland (!)

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On BBC Scotland News this morning:

‘The number of finance jobs in Scotland grew by nearly 7% in the past year according to the trade body City UK. That’s a faster pace than any other part of the UK.’

The BBC website had this:

Scottish finance jobs growth ‘outstrips London’

Who says they never report good news on the Scottish economy? Not me. I say they regularly miss most good news stories and do so enough times to produce a gloomy climate, not conducive to optimism about an independent Scotland. They’re not completely daft and remember to put one or two in now and again to deflect criticism.

Here are some they missed:

Scottish onshore economy grows by at least double the rate of UK

Why this good news on the Scottish economy is reported but other examples are not

Reporting Scotland serial offender as it misses good news on Scotland’s economy three times in one day!

More evidence of robust Scottish economy as hotel sector outperforms UK average

Robust Scottish Economy Indicator No. 47*: Demand for office space up 96%

 

Scottish GP vacancy rate now only one -third of that in non-Scottish parts of UK

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(c) Rex

Based on a survey by the GP magazine, Pulse, the Independent reported today:

‘GP vacancies (in England) rise to record levels despite recruitment pledge, survey suggests. Long patient waits and unsafe, rushed appointments are unlikely to end any time soon as vacancies have risen from 9.1 per cent to 15.3 per cent since the (UK) government pledged 5 000 more doctors.’

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/gp-vacancy-nhs-70-doctors-waiting-times-appointments-patient-safety-a8433596.html

In sharp contrast, the GP vacancy rate in Scotland was only 5.6% at the end of 2017.

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/General-Practice/Publications/2018-03-06/2018-03-06-PCWS2017-Report.pdf

While this difference will have multiple causes, perhaps these are major explanatory factors:

Scottish GP Contract rated ‘far superior’ by BMA, introduced today, to strengthen patient care

SNP act to maintain Scotland’s competitive advantage in GP staffing and satisfaction

Scottish Government funds new initiative to reduce planned waiting times in the wake of BMA praise for its new GP contract and illustrating what the Nuffield Trust called ‘a unique system of improving the quality of health care.’

Already the best staffed and least stressed in the UK, Scottish GPs to get better contracts

SNP Government invests £2.5million so that GPs have more time with patients

SNP Government to invest £71.6 million to improve on what is already the best-staffed and the most contented primary care system (GPs) in the UK and perhaps beyond

Also, this suggests the vacancy rate in Scotland, while regrettable, is not critical:

In the Scotsman today, 93% of Scottish patients get appointment with GP within 2 days!

 

More real economic strength revealed as demand for Glasgow office space increases dramatically

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(c) freeofficefinder.com

From Insider (blocked by Reporting Scotland?) today:

‘Glasgow’s city centre office market has experienced its best ever half year performance and is on track for a record year, according to property advisors. In the first six months of 2018, almost 583,000 square feet of office space was let, with 51 deals completed. Take-up has already surpassed the 10-year annual average of 492,335 sq ft and achieved 93 per cent of total take-up recorded last year at the half way mark. 2018 is set to be a record-breaking year for take-up.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/office-lettings-record-cushman-wakefield-12853150

Now, if I read the last bit correctly, it means that take-up of office space in Glasgow, in the first half of 2018, was nearly the same as for the whole year in 2017. So, the increase in demand is running at around 100%!

This is a clear indicator of robust health in the economy. Businesses expand their use of office space only if they need to, because they have more staff and they have more staff because they have more business. I’ve said before, this and other indicators, such as falling unemployment, increased starting salaries or even increased house prices, are stronger evidence of a healthy economy than GDP. See these earlier examples:

And more evidence of a strong economy: starting salaries in Scotland increase at quickest rate for more than 3 years

One more of many indicators of good economic health: 76% fall in total value of bad debt decrees.

More real evidence of economic strength: number of Scots getting permanent jobs has ‘risen sharply.’

More real economic data: 37% surge in investment in Scottish commercial property, greater diversity and higher profitability than in the UK

Shop closures across Scotland down 35% in 2017 and net increases in openings in Paisley, Dundee and Falkirk. Yet another sign of growing economic strength?

Scotland’s economic growth evident in increased passenger numbers at Edinburgh and Aberdeen airports

Scottish unemployment was already lower than in most parts of the UK and Scottish youth unemployment continues to be the second lowest in the EU after only economic powerhouse Germany!

Only in Scotland! ‘A review of small country’s approaches to public policy reform in response to economic, demographic and other pressures found that only in Scotland could this ‘golden thread’ be so clearly discerned’

For a reminder of the limitations of GDP figures see:

When will Scotland’s economics correspondents catch up with current thinking on GDP? When they can find something else to attack the SNP with.

However, it’s also worth remembering that even our GDP figures are better than those in the non-Scottish parts of the UK:

Scottish GDP grows by 10 times UK rate in first quarter of 2018 or could that be 30 times with proper taxation of oil revenue?