The Kantar poll of 18+adults’ Westminster voting intentions, collected between 5th and 9th July 2018, gives the following percentages:
- SNP 39%
- Conservatives 20%
- Labour 19%
- Lib Dems 4%
- Other 5%
- Prefer not to say 14%
This gives SNP support alone equal to the combined Conservative and Labour support. The raw data actually put the SNP 1 ahead, with 34 respondents as opposed to 33 (17 and 16) for Conservatives and Labour.
Also, of interest, the SNP attracted 40% of female respondents and only 30% of male respondents but a whopping 61% of the under 55s.
The recent Wings/Panelbase figures were:
- SNP 38%
- Conservatives 27%
- Labour 25%
- Liberal Democrats 7%
- Greens 2%
While the quite large percentage of ‘prefer not to say’ respondents, in the Kantar poll, limits comparisons between the two polls, I am not aware of any reason to think they are likely to represent supporters any one party more than the others, so these data may well suggest further disillusionment with the Tory Brexit disaster and with Labour’s weak opposition to them/it, in the 10 or so days that separate them.
Accepting the above, the small sample, and the limitations in all polling, I think we can, nevertheless, take heart in what seem to be signs of growing strength in SNP support and decline in that for the Conservative and Labour parties in Scotland.