SNP pull further ahead of Tories and Labour

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The Kantar poll of 18+adults’ Westminster voting intentions, collected between 5th and 9th July 2018, gives the following percentages:

  • SNP             39%
  • Conservatives 20%
  • Labour 19%
  • Lib Dems             4%
  • Other 5%
  • Prefer not to say 14%

This gives SNP support alone equal to the combined Conservative and Labour support. The raw data actually put the SNP 1 ahead, with 34 respondents as opposed to 33 (17 and 16) for Conservatives and Labour.

Also, of interest, the SNP attracted 40% of female respondents and only 30% of male respondents but a whopping 61% of the under 55s.

The recent Wings/Panelbase figures were:

  • SNP 38%
  • Conservatives 27%
  • Labour 25%
  • Liberal Democrats 7%
  • Greens 2%

While the quite large percentage of ‘prefer not to say’ respondents, in the Kantar poll, limits comparisons between the two polls, I am not aware of any reason to think they are likely to represent supporters any one party more than the others, so these data may well suggest further disillusionment with the Tory Brexit disaster and with Labour’s weak opposition to them/it, in the 10 or so days that separate them.

Accepting the above, the small sample, and the limitations in all polling, I think we can, nevertheless, take heart in what seem to be signs of growing strength in SNP support and decline in that for the Conservative and Labour parties in Scotland.

http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/sites/tns-bmrb/files/July%202018%20-%20Voting%20Intention%20tables.pdf

 

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5 thoughts on “SNP pull further ahead of Tories and Labour

  1. Alan July 11, 2018 / 1:11 pm

    Those Kantar results from Scotland appears to be based on the Scotland subsample. 90 respondents total. It’s not that reliable. Looking at the data on page 7, I’m seeing a lot of questionable weighting going on. IMO, it’s not quite worthless, but would need to be combined with three or four other subsamples from the roughly the same time period to produce a “poll of poll subsamples”. Even then, the margin of error would still be higher than any single full-scale poll of Scotland.

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  2. John July 11, 2018 / 3:48 pm

    Still in there despite all the very hostile and negative MSM in Scotland . It shows a lot of people in Scotland are seeing past the Unionist propaganda , they see what is working for them , hospitals , education , jobs , and the only party that stands up for Scotland . I watched PMQ today , if the people in Scotland were to watch it they would see a Secetary of State for Scotland that is not even able to answer all of the questions that are put to him by the SNP because he is so inadequate , they would also see a Labour party from Scotland that couldn’t land a punch on him because they are as inadequate as he is , they would see twelve Tories from Scotland that are only there to say SNP baad , everthing in Scotland is rubbish to them , no wonder the SNP top the polls , the figure could be much higher if Scots took more interest in what is happening at Westminster ! .

    Liked by 3 people

    • johnrobertson834 July 11, 2018 / 4:04 pm

      Yes, its astonishing there isn’t a huge lead given the awfulness of both Tory UK government and so-called opposition.

      Liked by 2 people

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