In Quarter 1 of 2018, the Scottish onshore economy grew by 0.2%, double the rate of the UK. Remember this does not include North Sea oil and gas output. As you know, the latter has been growing dramatically over the last year and more, as prices have risen from around $36 per barrel in 2016 to around $80 per barrel today, with projections of $100 per barrel now frequently made.
Even based on Office for Budget Responsibility predictions of only 11.7 billion barrels between now and 2050, the value of the output would be more than $1 trillion! What would that do to our GDP if included? If openly reported, what might it do for the case for Scottish independence? For sources, see:
A fifth prediction of oil rising to $100 per barrel for Scottish oil, suggests pre-tax revenue of around $1 trillion!
It’s only one year since the Fraser of Allander ‘Institute’ wondered: Is Scotland on the brink of recession? A year later and they’re predicting more growth than the SNP’s own Growth Commission did.
Economic forecasters assume everything, except responsibility. Economists are people who are too smart for their own good and not smart enough for anyone else’s.
You are on a roll today John , good news everywhere , could it be the SNP are working hard to help make things better in Scotland ? .
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Thanks. Yes I think the SNP admin is doing all it can in the circumstances.
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Even Newsdrive on BBC Radio Scotland reported this!
I am sure by the time GMS comes along they will have got the negative spin once the hacks at the Herald, Scotsman, Mail, Express, Courier, P&J have worked their mendacious arts. The inhouse ‘Business’ Team will no doubt be mixing the gloom potion.
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Now now, don’t be negative, we don’t know what will happen in the future. Now that it is the future, we have headlines on GMS:
– the PM going to Brussels Summit for Brexit, and something fantasy ridden about negotiations
– the SNP are calling for an independence referendum before a vote on Brexit, and someone said they’re at it
– the NHS is top for innovation (IF they have staff, money, etc)
– terrible fire round Manchester way, chinook helicopters called in
– forest fire near Bathgate, fire engines attending
– folks still not allowed into their houses after art school fire
– something about the army in the US at the Mexican border
– Loganair not making a big enough profit
– stagecoach hasn’t made enough profits either
– airports and airlines are busy, and you will trouble getting away on yer holidays
– tons on Germany going out of World Cup (eh? Is that news?)
Okay, I’ve missed most of GMS (really struggling with getting enough sleep these days), but they seem to have a wide ranging variety of subjects this morning. Considering their normal obsession with business and markets, they bizarrely haven’t reported this good news for Scotland’s economy. Which implies there is no negative spin to be had on the subject (good litmus test is GMS – if they ignore something, then it MUST be good).
Interestingly they have emphasised the past tense re Brussels summit – ‘The UK WERE meant to reach an agreement in negotiations’,,,, past tense? Why not ‘ARE meant to’? Then they slip in that the EU is more interested in the immigrant crisis – ah, so it isn’t the fault of the uk if negotiations fail? Aye right. I still maintain that the uk govt is ploughing on ahead in complete incompetence to leave the EU cause of tax transparency regulation coming our way – and that it would reveal excessive corruption, including just how much Scotland is getting shafted. There is no way they’d pursue this unmitigated disaster without strong motivation (their own wealth).
Groaaaaan, the phone-in is about which football team you support in the World Cup, ffs, WHY on Earth, or in any universe, does anyone think it matters who in one country, that don’t have their own team there, supports who. I’m sick of bbc making this a ‘thing’ – Scotland isn’t in the World Cup, we have a whole raft of choices of countries to support instead, but we are being pressurised into thinking that should be England – eh? Why them above anyone else? Crass. No one thinks that English people shouldn’t support England, but how does that translate to scots should too? Anyway, it’s only a game.
Presumably those awful UK GDP numbers *include* oil & gas. What will they be like without our resources?