(c) penileboost

I heard on Sky News this morning that NHS England is not alone in being in crisis. It’s the same in Scotland too and the Irish newspapers are saying the same he noted confidently. Other than the short winter overload in A&E caused by massive increases in flu, I’m at a loss to identify any other part of NHS Scotland struggling while NHS England is in crisis almost across the board(s).

However, returning to GPs, we already know that Scotland is better staffed per head of population than other parts of the UK:

As anti-SNP media scrabble desperately for a crisis in NHS Scotland, GP numbers hold constant and access for patients remains far better than in any other part of the UK

The welcome for the new contract here seems to be just another indicator of good management of the NHS by the SNP government akin to the recent evidence of nurse numbers also holding up at a higher level than elsewhere in the UK and the wise decision not to bully the junior doctors into accepting worsened conditions:

NHS England ‘haemorrhaging’ nurses as 33 000 leave each year. NHS Scotland Nurse staffing increases.

As the Herald attempts to worry us with 0.58% of nurses planning to work abroad, official statistics show NHS Scotland has many more nurses per head of population than crisis-ridden NHS England, after 10 years of SNP administration.

Here’s what the BMA Scotland reported today:

‘To inform the Scottish GP Committee’s decision on whether to implement the proposed new GMS contract in Scotland, a poll of the profession was held to establish whether the contract had the backing of GPs in Scotland. The poll was held between 7 December and 4 January and was open to all GPs working in Scotland, including trainees and locums. The poll asked the question: ‘Do you wish to see the proposed new Scottish GMS contract implemented?’

The overall results were:

Yes       71.5%

No        28.5%

Spoilt   5%

I couldn’t help laughing at the idea of GPs spoiling votes. Did they draw willies on the form but more anatomically correct ones?

https://www.bma.org.uk/collective-voice/committees/general-practitioners-committee/gpc-scotland/contract-negotiations-scotland/gp-contract-poll-results

I’m watching with slack-jawed astonishment the level of corruption in ‘House of Saud: A Family at War’ on BBC 2 and must admit my headline is a bit over-the-top. I’m having a bit of a laugh not that I need one after watching Scottish Labour’s launch of their budget plans:

https://twitter.com/nonideefixe/status/953787304845377537

The story is that a lobbyist for Carillion and firms involved in blacklisting construction workers is sitting on its governing body! Former MSP, Cara Hilton has been the policy and public affairs manager for the construction sector’s trade body since December 2016. Only two months after starting the job she was elected to the Scottish Executive Committee and she has the backing of, don’t laugh, the Campaign for Socialism.

You couldn’t make it, or them, up.

Footnote: did she get the job because her name kind of sounds like a variant of Carillion? Cara Illion? Spooky?

Footnote 2: ‘Building Scotland’s Future and Blacklisting Workers since 1895?’

BBC News in England, yesterday, headlined:

‘NHS ‘haemorrhaging’ nurses as 33,000 leave each year’

before going on to report:

‘The NHS is “haemorrhaging” nurses with one in 10 now leaving the NHS in England each year, figures show.

More than 33,000 walked away last year, piling pressure on understaffed hospitals and community services.

The figures – provided to the BBC by NHS Digital – represent a rise of 20% since 2012-13, and mean there are now more leavers than joiners.

Nurse leaders said it was a “dangerous and downward spiral”, but NHS bosses said the problem was being tackled.

The figures have been compiled as part of an in-depth look at nursing by the BBC.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-42653542

No comparable media reports are being made of nurse staffing levels in Scotland. Indeed, official figures to September 2017, actually show a modest increase in numbers of 0.4%, from September 2016.

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Workforce/Publications/data-tables2017.asp

Indeed, NHS Scotland already has a far superior ratio of nurses to the population than NHS England. See:

As the Herald attempts to worry us with 0.58% of nurses planning to work abroad, official statistics show NHS Scotland has many more nurses per head of population than crisis-ridden NHS England, after 10 years of SNP administration.

Clearly disappointed by their inability to talk down their own NHS and scare their mostly elderly readers, the Scotsman did find a few wee scraps back on the 5^th January 2018. They headlined dramatically but inaccurately:

‘Hundreds of nurses are leaving Scotland every year to seek work abroad while hospitals here struggle to attract staff, official figures indicate.’

and told us, ominously that since 2012-13,
1,609 nurses who qualified in Scotland have filled out verification requests to go and work in other countries – and the numbers have been rising in recent years. Of course, we don’t know how many actually left as opposed to just filling in a form

https://www.scotsman.com/news/hundreds-of-nurses-leaving-scotland-to-work-overseas-1-4654060

So that would be about 330 nurses who have filled out a form each year. They clearly couldn’t tell us how many had actually gone in this time nor did they put the figure in perspective in any way.

How many nurses are there in Scotland? Well, in Nursing, excluding Midwifery, there were 56 468.2 FTE in September 2017 with 0.58%. apparently thinking of leaving to go abroad in any one year. You’ll recognise the basic propagandist technique of using the larger five-year figure rather than the more informative one-year figure.

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Workforce/Publications/data-tables2017.asp

So, 330, is that a lot, even if they had all left? If they had, would it even matter when staffing levels actual went up a wee bit? Is it a crisis anything like that afflicting NHS England?

Well, 300 is 0.58% of the total nurse staffing in Scotland. Bearing in mind that we don’t even know how many of them did leave and that overall numbers still went up, it’s a non-story. Finally, when the BBC tell us it is 10% per year actually leaving England, 0.59% is not even a nick never mind a haemorrhage.

(c) BBC

Leaving school in 1969, I remember being afraid to take up my place at Glasgow School of Art such was the reputation of the city, as gangs of knife-carrying teenagers terrorised the housing schemes and even fought in the city centre streets. My walk to Queen Street Station, often after dark, was a time of barely suppressed panic and I often ran, on hearing voices calling ‘Tongs ya bass’ or something like that, from side streets not too far away.

Much has clearly changed in these nearly 50 years. I lost my fear of Glasgow streets some time ago and knife crime in the city is very much reduced judging by headlines like the one above, taken from the Guardian in November. More recently, we even had four murders by knife, in one night, in London.

Also and related, I wrote only yesterday, that the level of violence with injury in Scotland’s university cities is much lower than all of those in England:

Scotland’s university cities by far the safest places to send your children

Here’s what the Guardian had to say:

‘Knife crime has killed 35 children and teenagers in England and Wales so far this year, meaning that 2017 is likely to be the worst year for such deaths in nearly a decade. Official figures exclusively obtained by the Guardian show that this year will be the worst since 2008 when 42 young people aged 19 and under lost their lives as a result of an attack with a knife.’

https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2017/nov/28/child-knife-deaths-in-england-and-wales-set-for-nine-year-peak

So why have things changed for the better in Scotland? The reasons for this kind of change are usually multiple and complex but according to another piece in the Guardian, in December:

‘Treating knife crime as a health issue has led to a dramatic drop in stabbings: of the 35 deaths of young people in Britain this year, none were in Scotland. In 2005, Strathclyde police set up a violence reduction unit (VRU) in an effort to address a problem that had made Glasgow, in particular, notorious. Later that year, a United Nations report illustrated why that strategy was so urgent. The study concluded that Scotland was the most violent country in the developed world. Based on telephone interviews with crime victims conducted between 1991 and 2000, it found that excluding murder, Scots were almost three times as likely to be assaulted as Americans and 30 times more likely than the Japanese.’

The Scottish Government and the Scottish police forces then took action:

‘The VRU, which is directly funded by the Scottish government and has an arms-length relationship with Police Scotland, was later rolled out across Scotland. It has adopted a public health approach to knife crime, in which the police work with those in the health, education and social work sectors to address the problem. The results so far have been dramatic. Between April 2006 and April 2011, 40 children and teenagers were killed in homicides involving a knife in Scotland; between 2011 and 2016, that figure fell to just eight.’

https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2017/dec/03/how-scotland-reduced-knife-deaths-among-young-people

Scotland is changing for the better in related ways too. Domestic violence, hate crime and even homicide are all falling. See these recent reports:

Reported domestic violence in Scotland falls. Is this part of wider change?

Racial hate crimes increase by 33% in England & Wales while falling by 10% in Scotland: Who says we’re not different?

Scotland’s homicide rate falls by 47%, is lower than the rate for England and Wales and has fallen faster than many other countries in the ten years of SNP government

Don’t we all need to see more of this kind of thing reported without having to look for it in the English press?

Footnote: While not wishing to discount initiatives like the VRU, we’ve seen elsewhere, such as in New York’s crime reduction, the possibility of other factors being influential such as a reduced population of young males in deprived areas, the greater appeal of life indoors with new entertainment technologies or even the removal of lead from petrol.

Here’s the argument for lead removal reducing crime but of course it wouldn’t entirely explain the fall in Scotland at the same time as the rise in English cities:

As major global cities like London struggle with pollution, levels in Scotland have dropped by more than 66% since 1990. Has this contributed to falling crime levels too?

 

Didn’t Brian Monteith implement a no comparison policy in the Scotsman to stop the SNP saying NHS Scotland was much better than NHS England? Here’s the policy statement:

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/brian-monteith-snp-will-be-under-fire-for-handling-of-nhs-1-4655785

Here’s what they wrote in the Scotsman today, Brian:

‘Scotland’s economy is continuing to expand but growth remains at half the wider UK rate, official figures today showed. It emerged that GDP north of the border grew by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2017 after an improvement in manufacturing. This is below the UK level of 0.4% over the same period, but an increase on the 0.1% hike in GDP which Scotland saw in the previous quarter.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-economy-grows-but-still-trails-uk-1-4663531

So, the UK’s economy, including the City of London’s subsidised and mostly making money for bonuses and for shareholders, economy, grew by a measly 0.4% in the third quarter of 2017 but never mind that Scotland’s only grew by 0.2% let’s focus on that. To paraphrase Brian:

‘This tactic of deflection has now worn thin and the evidence that the UK’s economy is in really serious trouble is growing.’

The whole report by Scott McNab is actually quite fair if he hadn’t made the cardinal error of ‘whitabootery.’

Finally, though, how useful is GDP as measure of economic health? See this:

‘Gross domestic product (GDP) is increasingly a poor measure of prosperity. It is not even a reliable gauge of production.’

https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21697845-gross-domestic-product-gdp-increasingly-poor-measure-prosperity-it-not-even

Even more finally, might balance of trade be worth mentioning? Only Scotland and Northern Ireland* have a positive balance of trade and parts of the UK including London cost the UK a bloody fortune in necessary debt to pay for their imports. See:

* for the first time

According to Insider:

‘Royal Dutch Shell has given the go-ahead for an expansion of the Penguins oil and gas field in the North Sea, its first major new project in the region in six years. The development will include the construction of a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel, which is expected to produce up to 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). Shell said it will generate a profit even with oil prices below $40 per barrel, making it competitive against other offshore basins and most of North America’s shale production.’

It’s interesting that they use the $40pb rate, long surpassed. Brent prices burst through the $70pb figure last week and have been above $60pb for some time. See:

Second prediction that Scottish oil may rise beyond $70 per barrel to as much as $100 per barrel and that demand will grow over the next ten years.

Are they worried they might have to pay taxes if they acknowledge higher prices?

The Scottish Government Energy Minister said:

‘This significant investment by Shell and ExxonMobil is further evidence of rising confidence in the future of the region and it will offer a significant boost to communities across the north-east of Scotland, along with boosting the wider Scottish economy. We have always maintained there are significant opportunities remaining in the North Sea, even in the context of a low carbon transition, and that a strong and vibrant domestic offshore oil and gas industry will play an essential role in the future energy system we set out in our recently published energy strategy.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/shell-start-new-drilling-project-11855810

Some readers may remember that Shell paid taxes to every other country they worked in but not to the UK, in 2016, so we’ll have to keep an eye on them. See this:

Surely the UK government didn’t let them off just to damage the case for Scottish independence? No, there must have been some good reason we colonials wouldn’t understand. See this for an explanation:

North Sea oil producers making massive profits as costs fall and prices rise. Are we taxing them, or might that damage the Unionist case?

(c) DFT/CROWN

The Scotsman’s reporting isn’t all bad just quite lot of it is especially when its just a press release for her majesty’s loyal opposition, in Scotland. However, this optimistic report based on SNP MP, Dr Phillipa Whiteford’s comments has sneaked in next to all the recent fibs about NHS Scotland. Perhaps I’ve been unfair. Surely this means they’re balanced 😉?

Here’s a bit of what they say:

‘Scotland is in ‘a strong position’ to host the first UK spaceport and to capitalise further on commercial space activity, an MP has said ahead of a Westminster debate on the sector. Dr Philippa Whitford, whose Central Ayrshire constituency includes Prestwick Airport, said the second reading of the Space Industry Bill was another chance to highlight Scotland’s success in this sector, with 18 per cent of the UK industry based in Scotland and Glasgow now building more satellites than any other city in Europe.’

Other Scottish candidates include the A’Mhoine peninsula in Sutherland and Campbelltown in Argyll.

https://www.scotsman.com/future-scotland/tech/scotland-in-strong-position-to-host-first-uk-spaceport-1-4662079

No harm to the other two but wouldn’t it take longer to get to them in the first place than for the actual space journey and much longer than for the satellite launches. My money’s on NotGlasgow Prestwick.

Mind you, maybe London makes more sense? Boris and the Gove are already wired to the moon and post-Brexit England could make good use of it for its new ‘lucrative’ trade arrangements with Timbuktu and Tierra del Fuego.

As you know, the Scottish Government surpassed its youth employment target four years early in 2017 and by 48.3% as opposed to the 40% target. See this for more detail:

Scottish Government meets its youth employment target four years early to place Scotland as among the most successful in Europe

This achievement is impressive and is testimony to the Scottish government’s initiatives including the Developing the Young Workforce programme based on education, improved careers advice, work experience and modern apprenticeship opportunities. Most recently, they have announced £96 million of funding to create fairer employment support services to help the disabled and those facing social and economic barriers to get into and to stay in work.

The impetus is clearly still there for 2018 as the Scottish Government-funded Skills Development Scotland announced plans to create 3 500 new-style apprenticeship places. See this from a report in Insider:

‘The national skills body’s figures consist of 2 600 foundation apprenticeships for school pupils and more than 900 graduate apprenticeships Bottom of FormTop of Form. Bottom of Form

Skills Development Scotland has announced that 3 500 new-style apprenticeship places are to be created in 2018. The SDS figure is made up of 2 600 foundation apprenticeships for pupils and more than 900 graduate apprenticeships. They are intended to provide educational qualifications and workplace training for both senior school pupils and graduates and are an addition to the national skills body’s modern apprentice programme which last year supported 26,000 apprentices. SDS says it is committed to increasing that number to 30,000 by 2020.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/skills-development-scotland-apprenticeship-places-11841441

Youth unemployment in Scotland is the fifth lowest in Europe at 9.4% and lower than the UK figure of 12.1% in 9^th place. If we had a Labour or any other administration they’d be crowing about it, so the SNP must take a fair share of the credit.

(c) cakart.in

According to the Scotsman today:

‘NHS Scotland pays £193m in compensation over five years. Medical negligence payments paid out annually by NHS Scotland have risen four-fold in the past decade, new figures have revealed. In 2016-17, £38.3 million was paid out – up from £9.4m in 2006-07. NHS Scotland has paid a total of £192.9m in medical negligence claims to patients over the five years between 2012-17.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/nhs-scotland-pays-193m-in-compensation-over-five-years-1-4662230

First, lumping together the figures for five years to get a bigger number for your headline is cheating. Only the annual figure is meaningful and only the increase from one year to the next tells us anything useful.

Now I know that the Scotsman’s new research officer, ‘Brains’ Monteith, has told them they don’t need contextual comparisons anymore now that he has labelled it ‘whitabootery’. However, the research council has rejected his application for it to be recognised as a proper adult concept and the nearest professor of journalism I could find says context is still very important and required for even a bare pass in first year, in semester 1, in week 1, on day 1, before lunchtime.

So, from the FT, see this on compensation claims in the ENHS (English, not Estonian!) in the same year:

‘The number of successful clinical negligence claims against the National Health Service has more than doubled in the past decade, leaving a bill that may be having an impact on the quality of care. The National Audit Office says that over the past decade, spending on the clinical negligence scheme for NHS trusts has quadrupled from £400m in 2006-07 to £1.6bn in 2016-17.’

https://www.ft.com/content/9a7c010a-9307-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0

Now, let me think is £1.6 billion much more than £39.3 million when they have a much bigger population? I know let’s do a cost ratio per head of population. What, you don’t have a mathematics pass? Oh, alright I’ll do it for you.

NHS Scotland compensation plans are running at £38 300 000 per year divided by 5 300 000 folk, or:

£7.22p per head of population.

NHS England compensation plans are running at £1 600 000 000 per year divided by 53 000 000 people, or:

£30.18p per head of population.

We must be doing something better.

I’ve just reported on falling domestic violence in Scotland and the increasingly inaccurate nature of the stereotypical view of Scots and Scotland as violent. The Complete University Guide has published some shocking data which was too large to fit into the previous report and which reveals a shocking difference between the level, in particular, of the risk of violence against the person in Scottish, English, Welsh and N Ireland city-based universities. The tables show the three-year rolling average of crime per 1 000 population.

Here’s the table for England and Wales:

Here’s the table for Northern Ireland:

Here’s the table for Scotland:

These are quite remarkable differences with the risk of violence against university students in Scottish cities significantly lower than in all the other UK cities. Even Glasgow, has a far lower rate than the least violent of the English cities

https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/preparing-to-go/staying-safe-at-university/how-safe-is-your-city/