Talking-up Scotland

Late Labour Leader Chic ‘Humphyback’ Bogie

The number of quit attempts made with the help of NHS Scotland smoking cessation services in 2017/18 fell for the sixth consecutive year to 55,369. This is a 7.4% decrease from 2016/17 and there was a 54.4% decrease since 2011/12 when numbers of quit attempts reached their peak. The fall in quit attempts is likely to be picked up by our Nomedia’s Labour advisors as evidence that things are getting worse but as usual their grasp of statistics would be wee-dafty.

First, there are less smokers left so there are less of them to stop smoking. Second it was clearly the Labour Party’s utter incompetence and naked corruption which were making Scots anxious and more in need of a regular puff!

I gather the figures might also be affected by an increase in the use of eFags.

From ISD:

‘Of those making a quit attempt 38.4% (21,237) reported that they were still not smoking at Four weeks. This figure fell to 22.7% (12,553) at twelve weeks, both these quit percentages are similar to 2016/17. Of the 21,237 self-reported four week quits, 62.1% (13,180) were confirmed successful on carbon monoxide testing, 2.1% (450) were confirmed as smoking, and35.8% (7,607) had no carbon monoxide reading taken, or the result was unknown.’

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Public-Health/Publications/2018-10-23/2018-10-23-SmokingCessation-Summary.pdf?77637881041

 

In Scotland 71% of P1s had no decay at all up 45% on 2002/3

In Scotland average number of teeth with decay is halved

 In June 2018, English Labour described deterioration in children’s dental care, in England, as ‘unacceptable.’ In 2016, the BBC and the Telegraph described dental care for children in England as ‘Third World.’

Yesterday NHS Scotland were able to reveal a more confident smile as our bairns become less affected by tooth decay. Richard Leonard was unavailable for comment.

From the Information Services Division of NHS Scotland:

‘More than 70 percent of P1 children had no obvious decay experience in their primary teeth in the school year 2017/18. This is a substantial improvement since ISD started recording this information in school year 2002/03 (45%). In the school year 2017/18, the average number of teeth affected by obvious decay experience in P1 children was 1.14. This is less than half of the average number of teeth affected in the school year 2002/03 (2.76).’

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Dental-Care/Publications/2018-10-23/2018-10-23-NDIP-Summary.pdf?21130007506

In England:

© GETTY

Sources:

Unacceptable deterioration in children’s dental care – Labour

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-06-15/unacceptable-deterioration-in-childrens-dental-care-labour/

Dental care in England ‘Third World’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35221163

‘Third World’ dentistry crisis in England

More than 400 dentists write to the Telegraph arguing the NHS dentistry system is ‘unfit for purpose’ as 46,400 children are admitted to hospital for tooth decay

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/12079233/Third-World-dentistry-crisis-in-England.html

 

 

 

Based on a sub-sample of 171 Scots in the YouGov / Times Westminster Voting Intention Survey, the SNP seems to continue to defy electoral gravity, with 47% intending to vote for them. This would take SNP representation at Westminster up to 56 and remove the last Scottish Labour MP.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/kxau243ykc/TimesResults_181023_VI_Trackers_bpc_w.pdf

In sharp contrast, for Holyrood voting intentions, a Survation / Daily Record full-sample of ‘more than 1 000 Scots’ suggests SNP support in a Holyrood vote, down 8.5% to 38%, the loss of 11 MSPs and the loss of a pro-independence majority. For Westminster, this poll has the SNP holding at 36%.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/new-poll-shows-snp-could-13486523

However, though a poll of more than 1 000 should be more reliable than a sample of 171, there are good reasons to think differently because of the methods used to gather the information. Most important is the difference between online and landline telephone surveys, used respectively by YouGov and Survation. Regular readers of TuS will have seen this before.

Telephone surveys tend toward exaggerating conservative or no change outcomes such as a NO vote in Scotland 2014 or, as they clearly did, a Remain vote in Brexit 2016.

First see these reservations, from YouGov, about telephone interviews from the opinion polls which got the EU Referendum so wrong:

‘There’s a big difference between the online and telephone polls on the EU referendum – with online polls showing the sides neck-and neck and telephone polls showing about a 15% gap in favour of ‘remain’. Why? It’s striking that both methodologies right across the different polling companies give about the same number to the ‘leave’ campaign, around 40%. The difference is in the ‘remain’ number, which is around 52% from the telephone-polls, but only 40% for online polls.’

So, commonly, telephone surveys generate conservative, negative or status quo returns. Respondents are more likely to say no to a question about a big change of some kind.

In another YouGov report we read:

‘Now however we can reveal a real, significant and evidence-based difference between the two methodologies that explains why they are divergent and why it is online that appears to be calling it correctly.’

See this online, self-selecting, survey report from the, far from sympathetic to Scottish Independence, Scotsman newspaper in June 2016:

‘Nearly six out of 10 Scots say they’d vote Yes in a second independence referendum. In a clear reflection of the growing backlash north of the Border to Thursday’s Brexit result, a ScotPulse online survey of 1,600 Scottish adults on Friday (24 June) showed that 59% of Scots now back leaving the UK.’

Further, not everyone has a landline to be called on. Roughly 20%, especially younger and economically disadvantaged citizens do not have one so cannot be surveyed. As the Scotsman report points out, the young and the less-well-off are more likely to prefer independence.

Here’s an even more interesting thought, from the USA admittedly:

‘There now may be something unusual about people who are willing to answer the phone to talk with strangers, and we should be sceptical about generalizing from the results of these surveys. It is possible that the new habit of non-phone-answering is evenly distributed throughout the population (thus reducing this as a sampling confound), but this seems unlikely.’

Now, are NO voters more unusual than YES voters?

 Sources:

https://www.indeed.co.uk/cmp/Bmg-Research/reviews

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/23/commentary-what-explains-difference-between-phone-/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/23/commentary-what-explains-difference-between-phone-/

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/

 

 

 

Based on a fuller report in the Independent, this former Scottish Newspaper allows Labour to pretend that children’s operations are being cancelled in record numbers across the UK including Scotland. The Independent gives the same impression:

The Independent, unable to remember that NHS should read NHS England, begins:

‘There has been a 58 per cent rise in the number of children’s operations cancelled by the NHS in the past seven years, according to figures which critics warn illustrate the “cruel toll” of pressures on the health service. Last year, a record 18,647 under-18s had surgery cancelled or delayed, with cancer treatment, pregnancy terminations and broken bones among the procedures affected. That compares with 11,821 cancellations since the Conservatives came to power in coalition with the Liberal democrats in 2011/2012, and the number has climbed steadily in a period where austerity policies have seen budgets fall behind rising demand.’

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-austerity-health-children-operations-medical-conservative-data-figures-a8603366.html

In a long piece, we hear tales of several boards and trust, across England. No Scottish examples are used. Could that be because cancelled operations for all age groups have been falling for some time in Scotland?

Try searching for cancelled operation in NHS Scotland, for children or for adults, and you’ll hear the brushwood tumble past. If there was such a phenomenon in Scotland, we’d hear all about it. Our Loyalist List MSPs would be all over the story and not having to rely on hoping we think a story about NHS England applies here.

 

 

In the Herald today we find, as usual, the ‘urgent call’ comes from one Loyalist List politician:

‘Health chiefs are facing calls for an urgent (😊 ) inquiry after it was claimed NHS patients could be “leapfrogged” by private patients to help health boards make money. Neil Findlay, Labour MSP for Lothian and a former convener of the Health and Sport Committee, called on the Scottish Government to intervene, saying he feared health boards could be trying to “supplement” their income by supporting high volumes of private work.’ 

How much does NHS England pay to private companies?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-44043959

How much does NHS Scotland pay to private companies?

‘NHS Scotland uses independent hospitals when it cannot provide the patient’s needs. NHS Scotland pays the companies to provide services when they otherwise cannot. A total of £72m was paid out to the firms in 2016/17, [a five-year low] a drop of £6.5m [ 5%] compared to the previous year.’

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1402987-nhs-spending-on-private-health-care-falls-year-on-year/

So, in 2016/17, NHS England spent £9 billion with private companies, up from around £8 billion the previous year. In the same year, NHS Scotland spent £72 million with private companies, down from £78.5 million.

England has, conveniently, 10 times the population. So, you all things being equal, you might expect it to spend 10 times as much as NHS Scotland  on private companies, or £720 million. In fact, NHS England spent 12 times, per capita as much on private companies.

It’s an awful, tragic, case. The parent’s anger and despair are understandable, but is it, on its own, news of the kind a public service broadcaster should headline and dwell on at some length? Leaving aside the fact that the case has not yet been confirmed as suicide by a Fatal Accident Inquiry, the BBC Scotland report had time for the parents and other non-professionals to talk at length and to suggest that despite this being a single case, based entirely on comments made to the parents, by the victim and without any contextual evidence, the problem was systemic. Remember the BBC has a royal charter obliging it to educate, to inform and to entertain. It also claims to employ balance in reports. Giving the team at Reporting Scotland the benefit of the doubt, can we discount ‘entertaining?’ What about educating and informing though? What about balancing evidence? The report did not even approach answers to, for example, these obvious questions:

How common is suicide by women in Scottish jails?

Is it increasing?

Is it more or less common than in other countries?

Is the imprisonment of women common in Scotland?

Does the government already have plans to reduce the imprisonment of women?

 

So, without the benefit of numerous research assistants, I offer these answers below.

 

Deaths in Custody in Scottish Prisons: Female suicide

Suicides(F)       Natural Causes         Not determined          Other

2018    0(0)                  0                                  25                                0

2017    3(0)                  3                                  23                                0

2016    5(1)                  6                                  17                                0

2015    2(0)                  15                                5                                  0

2014    4(1)                  12                                7                                  1

2013    7(0)                  15                                0                                  2

2012    8(1)                  9                                  0                                  1

2011    6(0)                  15                                2                                  0

2010    6(0)                  15                                2                                  0

2009    6(0)                  13                                2                                  0

 

http://www.sps.gov.uk/Corporate/Information/PrisonerDeaths.aspx

So, suicide by women in Scottish prisons seems rare with no more than 1 in any year, with 7 out of ten years with no cases and only 3 in total over the last ten years.  Also, there is no evidence that the problem is increasing over time. It would have been useful for viewers to be told that. Does this suggest any kind of headline-worthy wider crisis in Scotland’s prisons? No. Note, that none in 2018 have been confirmed as yet.

There are typically between 390 and 400 women in Scottish prisons, far fewer pro rata, than the 7 400 men. That, in itself, is informative. Clearly there is already a tendency for women not to be incarcerated in Scotland.

http://www.sps.gov.uk/Corporate/Information/SPSPopulation.aspx

So, the female suicide rate, over the last 10 years, in Scottish prisons, is 3 in 10 years or, on average, 0.3 cases in any year.

Is suicide high compared with prisons in England?

Twelve women killed themselves in English prisons in 2016 (the most recent year for which there are confirmed figures) and, unlike the Scottish figures, the English figures suggest female suicide in English prisons is increasing.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/mar/28/prisons-watchdog-condemns-lack-of-action-on-rising-female-suicides

In an average year, there are 0.3 female suicides in Scottish prisons. In England, based on 2015 and 2016, there was an average of 9. The population ratio is 10 to 1. The pro rata number, 0.9 suicides in a year, in English prisons is three times higher than that, 0.3, in Scotland.

Does the SNP Government have plans to reduce the use of female imprisonment?

There was no mention of any plans in the BBC Scotland report. See this from the Howard Reform Trust, responding to the Scottish government’s well-known plans:

‘The enthusiasm about the proposals for radical change was heartening and we were assured by officials and the minister that there is a firm commitment to see them through. The plan is to restrict the number of beds so that the number of women in prison is significantly reduced. A national facility will be built on the site of the old Cornton Vale prison with only 80 beds and they are currently consulting women about what the prison should look like and provide. That in itself is a pretty revolutionary! This should result in halving the number of women in prison at any one time and providing a much-improved service for those who are detained.’

https://howardleague.org/blog/scotlands-plan-to-reform-and-reduce-womens-imprisonment/

 

BBC COMPLAINT: 26.10.18

The report on a single suicide in a Scottish prison, was deeply flawed. Though around 3 minutes in length, the time was given over almost entirely to the parents to express their natural anger at the treatment they believed their daughter had received and there was almost no contextualisation. I understand from teaching journalism students that personalisation helps to engage viewers but that it must be balanced with contextualisation if they are to understand what it means beyond the narrow experiences of those few interviewed. Leaving aside for the moment the perhaps important fact that the case has not yet been confirmed as suicide by a Fatal Accident Inquiry, the report, without any contextual evidence suggested that the problem was systemic. Remember the BBC has a royal charter obliging it to educate, to inform and to entertain. It also makes much of the use of balance in reports. Giving the team at Reporting Scotland the benefit of the doubt, can we discount ‘entertaining?’ What about educating and informing though? What about balancing evidence? The report did not even approach answers to, for example, these obvious questions: 1. How common is suicide by women in Scottish jails? 2. Is it increasing? 3. Is it more or less common than in other countries? 4. Is the imprisonment of women common in Scotland? 5. Does the government already have plans to reduce the imprisonment of women? The answers (references available) are 1: In the last ten years there have been only 3 suicides in Scottish prisons with no more than one in any year and none in seven of them. 2. It is not increasing. 3. The rate of female suicide in English prisons is around 4 times higher. 4. Between 390 and 400 women are in Scottish prisons compared with 7 400 men. 5. The Howard League has praised the Scottish government’s plans to reduce the incarceration of many women and to improve treatment for the others.

 

So whit if am angry? Am aye angry! Get me a drrrink or all kick yer baws ya c….

The Ofcom, BBC Performance Tracker October 2017 – April 2018, makes uncomfortable reading for the BBC.

64% of all UK adults had a favourable overall impression of the BBC. Only 52% felt the same way in Scotland. Remember this overall impression includes the full range of highly impressive nature documentaries, highly popular dramas such as The Bodyguard and the equally popular Strictly Come Dancing. Ofcom did not ask specifically about BBC Scotland News or Reporting Scotland. We can only imagine the result if they had. I guess they wouldn’t risk that.

We do know about the general Radio Scotland audience falling, though. See:

BBC Scotland radio audiences plummet

Asked if they thought that the BBC broadcasts a good range of programmes and

content that represents where they live, 50% of all UK adults agreed but only 39% of Scots felt the same way.

Asked if the BBC shows content that accurately represents and authentically portrays the life and culture of a range of different communities throughout the UK, 59% of all UK adults agreed, but only 55% of the over 65s, 54% of the disabled, 52% of those in social class D/E and, lowest of all, only 51% of Scots, felt the same way.

For more on this, see:

Is the BBC’s violent and troubled, but utterly loyal Scot, just a ‘natural’ choice for writers or is he deliberate propaganda for Better Together?

Asked if the BBC shows programmes and content that are ‘relevant to me’, 58% of all UK adults agreed, but only 53% of members of a minority ethnic group, 52% of the disabled, 49% of the over 65s, 48% of those in social class D/E and, lowest of all, only 46% of Scots felt the same way.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0022/124078/report-bbc-representation-portrayal.pdf

These figures suggest that the BBC is failing to justify the tax it imposes on the people of Scotland. How many have refused to pay and how many are actually watching or listening to their ‘news’ broadcasts, are dark secrets they will not reveal.

 

‘Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not charity ( love) I am become as a sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.’

  1st Corinthians chapter 13 verse 1

Suggested by fellow atheist Graham MacClure

I’m on thin ice here but I’m a free-blogger so I’ll write it if I suspect it might be true. I’m going to argue that lizard-brained psychopaths rise to the top in all organisations, attracted by power and wealth, unconstrained by any fear of treading on others. I’m certainly not suggesting that all or even the majority of politicians are certifiable as non-violent psychopaths or sociopaths, but I am suggesting than politics is a domain in which possession of a few psychopathic traits can be advantageous in enabling a rise to the top. Here are the dominant traits of a non-violent psychopath or sociopath, from the most widely used, Hare, checklist:

• glib and superficial charm
• grandiose (exaggeratedly high) estimation of self
• need for stimulation
• pathological lying
• cunning and manipulativeness
• lack of remorse or guilt
• shallow affect (superficial emotional responsiveness)
• callousness and lack of empathy
• parasitic lifestyle
• poor behavioral controls
• sexual promiscuity
• early behavior problems
• lack of realistic long-term goals
• impulsivity
• irresponsibility
• failure to accept responsibility for own actions
• many short-term marital relationships
• juvenile delinquency
• revocation of conditional release
• criminal versatility

http://www.minddisorders.com/Flu-Inv/Hare-Psychopathy-Checklist.html

Do you recognise these traits in clusters among any of the Labour and Conservative politicians in the news recently? One bulky haystack on a bike comes to mind at first but given time I could name dozens. Is there evidence that politicians, as a group, are more likely to have these traits? See this from a report on research into the topic:

‘Yes, politicians are more likely than people in the general population to be sociopaths. I think you would find no expert in the field of sociopathy/psychopathy/antisocial personality disorder who would dispute this… That a small minority of human beings literally have no conscience was and is a bitter pill for our society to swallow — but it does explain a great many things, shamelessly deceitful political behavior being one.’

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-freeman/are-politicians-psychopaths_b_1818648.html

I’m also going to argue that it takes time for the cold ones to take over completely. In the case of the Labour Party, it took 90 years to get from Keir Hardie to Tony Blair. Not surprisingly in the inherently nastier ‘pragmatic’ Conservative party, psychopaths were probably at the wheel from the beginning. However, is it possible that in the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens, psychopaths at the top will be rarer because, until fairly recently, the possibility of access to meaningful power was not really there to attract them. As a consequence, those with sufficient experience to hold power now, will have entered these parties motivated more by genuinely held values and by more collectivist than selfish drives.

Here’s a wee game to see if we can agree on identifying politicians who show psychopathic traits. Look at these nine pictures and note which you think have noticeably psychopathic traits:

Answers provided for TuS, by Professor Johann Von Robertswinkelstein, Head of Psychology at the University of Bratwurst in Bad Meinstadt, are given if you scroll down. Remember to look for shameless liars and cheats who remain cool even when they have to listen to other fibbers.

1. 2. 3.

4.  5. 6.

7. 8.

9.

I am of course not suggesting that any of these people are certifiable psychopaths just that some people might think they have some of the traits.

Finally, here are links to stories about politicians which might suggest psychopathic traits.

Hillary Clinton “We Came, We Saw, He Died” (Gaddafi) – YouTube

Andy Kerr asks Labour delegate ‘did you cross yourself …

How Boris Johnson’s betrayal will finally bring him crashing down to …

Brexiteers blame Michael Gove for leading ‘betrayal’ of the referendum …

Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy defends Irn-Bru expenses …

I am of course not suggesting that any of these people are psychopaths just that some people might think they have some of the traits.

Scroll down for the ‘answer’ to the test.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Professor Johann Von Robertswinkelstein’s answers: 1 to 4 and 6 may well be psychopaths while 7 and 8 are clearly lovely people. Nine is too scary to discuss so you decide. I’m not saying. As for five, she is not a psychopath, but her smile is very anxious and I suspect she has suffered by trying to impress psychopaths around her. What organisation does she work for? Is the culture psychopathic?

 

 

In that ‘throbbing organ’, the Insider yesterday:

Research showing that Aberdeen in the most entrepreneurial place in the UK after parts of London has been welcomed by business. The Local Data Company (LDC) recently published research into the evolving landscape of the high street, and found that in 2017-18, Aberdeen came second place in the net increase of independent retailers, seeing a growth of 39 independent shops in the city. Only Tooting in South London was above the Granite City with 43 more independent shops than the previous year. The LDC surveyed more than 300,000 independent shops, and this gives a picture of how local businesses are performing in 1,300 towns and cities across Great Britain.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/aberdeen-entrepreneurial-place-uk-survey-13465711

Recent good news about Aberdeen:

As Scottish oil industry booms, Aberdeen contractors more confident but Scottish media pay little attention.

Aberdeen 20: Dundee 12? The competition for Europe’s largest fleet of hydrogen fuel cell buses

Aberdeen University makes ‘step-change’ advance in MRI scanning

Aberdeen’s National Hyperbaric Centre to double income in one year as Scottish Government invests £1 million in a second facility

Europe’s largest fleet of hydrogen-fuelled buses is in Aberdeen

Scotland’s economic growth evident in increased passenger numbers at Edinburgh and Aberdeen airports

Is Aberdeen booming again?

Footnote: Many years ago, being teased about Scottish place-names such as Ecclefechan and Auchtermuchty, I responded, youthfully, with those possibly illegal active verbs – Tooting, Wapping, Epping, Dorking and Wanking before remembering that the latter is in China.

Footnote 2: According to a reliable source, Tooting is the hometown of that great Reggae performer Tooting and the Maytals.

© (Image: Perthshire Advertiser/Richard Wilkins)

From the SNP Government, yesterday:

‘The latest statistics confirm that casualties on Scotland’s roads are at the lowest levels since records began. Through actions taken by all those involved in improving road safety, the longer-term trends show a 50% reduction in fatal injuries, a 39% reduction in serious injuries and a 61% reduction in child fatalities compared to the 2004-2008 baseline figures.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/statement-following-publication-of-reported-road-casualties-scotland-2017

It seems likely the controversial use of average speed cameras, so often criticised by Conservatives, have played a part in this:

SNP speed cameras reducing speed and saving lives. Will Jeremy Clarkson and his Scottish tory buddies now shut up?

Note: For the headline, I have identified the aspect of the report of most interest to the public using the respected Reporting Scotland Editorial Guidelines