Talking-up Scotland

From Energy Voice yesterday:

‘A new report has forecasted that Scotland’s marine economy will grow seven-fold to be worth £5billion by 2035 if it can successfully develop key industries. The document, produced by Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), sets out “enormous potential” for developing wave and tidal energy, aquaculture and marine biotechnology in the region.’

Within the report we read:

‘The research sets out that the region is the world’s third largest salmon producer, with the industry in Scotland seeking to double the value of production to £3.6bn by 2030. Meanwhile wave and tidal energy could be worth up to £800m to the UK by 2035, with a quarter of Europe’s potential tidal stream energy based in Scotland.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/194457/scotlands-marine-economy-forecasted-to-be-worth-5bn-by-2035/

Earlier reports on Scotland’s marine economy reinforce the above optimism:

As Scottish Tourism soars, Outer Hebrides to become major centre of marine tourism with funds mostly from SNP-led Scottish government

Scotland’s European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) to be test centre for 3 out of 6 new EU-funded offshore renewable energy projects as our expertise begins to earn billions

Are the Pentland Firth waters the ‘Saudi Arabia of marine power?’

With only 8% of the population, Scotland’s maritime sector accounts for 25% of the UK maritime sector’s (GVA) contribution to the economy and is 17.5% more productive than the UK marine oil and gas sector. Once more, too wee, too poor?

Scottish Association for Marine Science to lead seaweed research to benefit developing nations

‘Oban set to become marine tourism hub’

Finally, for a comprehensive statistical account, see this:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/marine-protected-area-network-2018-report-scottish-parliament/pages/4/

 

No, not the new Village People

Employers across Scotland are having to compete more to find the workers they need for what is, presumably, a robust economy, and having to pay more to recruit them.

No doubt our NoMedia can easily turn this into a bad news story:

‘Scottish businesses struggle to find suitable employees as costs rocket’

However, as we’ve seen before, this is good news. A well-paid workforce in secure employment, is more productive, has less mental health problems and pays more tax for the public services which they and all of us benefit from.

From the Scottish Financial News piece on the latest Royal Bank of Scotland Report on Jobs for Scotland:

‘Another sharp monthly rise in permanent staff placements was observed in Scotland during July. The pace of expansion, despite easing slightly, was close to June’s 44-month high. Furthermore, growth in Scotland outpaced the UK average, which was the softest since last October. Recruitment agencies in Scotland also signalled strong growth in contract staff billings, extending the current sequence of increase to seven months. Permanent job vacancies rose substantially during July, despite the pace of expansion slipping from June’s 13-month peak. Nonetheless, permanent staff demand was greater in Scotland than across the UK as a whole. There was also marked growth in temporary job openings across Scotland at the beginning of the third quarter. The rate of expansion was the quickest for nine months and noticeably outpaced that seen at the national level. Amid rising staff vacancies and shrinking candidate supply, pay pressures intensified in July. Salaries awarded to permanent starters in Scotland increased at the fastest pace in six months, with inflation outpacing that seen for the UK overall. Meanwhile, temp pay rates in Scotland rose at the sharpest degree since April 2017.’

https://www.scottishfinancialnews.com/article/sharp-growth-in-permanent-staff-appointments-continues-in-july-rbs

As always this takes place among a wider array of news indicating relative economic strength which any government of the day, in Scotland, can claim at least some credit for:

Unemployment in Scotland 13% lower than UK and wages higher AFTER SNP government gives businesses more than £4 billion in rates relief

Further evidence of better employment practices in Scotland

Or see below the merciful other reality of employment in modern Scotland?

Scotland’s ‘trends of high employment and low unemployment’ persist but our media prefer to headline only a wee bit of bad news

As oil prices soar and exploration increases, employment in Scotland’s oil industry returns to record levels

 

Yet more objective evidence Scotland’s economy healthy in SNP care

More objective evidence of a strong Scottish Economy in 2018

Scottish Government-funded GHA ‘boosts Scottish economy by £2bn’

Another umpteenth post on underlying strength in Scottish Economy: Edinburgh’s office investment up nearly 30%

Another case in the real story of Scotland’s economy: Big business failures in Scotland fall by 25%’

Another case in the real story of Scotland’s economy: Hospitality retail growth up 11%

Umpteenth post on underlying strength in Scottish economy: Property investment up 19.8%!

I’ve looked through the full post-pigeon hygiene report for the 1 677 bed, 1 100 patient rooms, 11 floor, New Southern General, which is producing ludicrous exploitative headlines throughout our NoMedia and there are, in it, many pages of full compliance by capable staff, interspersed with a handful of mostly individual cases of blood or body fluids found on toilet seat hinges or trolleys. Would it be possible, in any way, for at least one Mr I P Squint not to have been in the loo first thing so that an inspector could spot it (you know what I mean) before the cleaners can get around again? Should there be 1 677 personal cleaners, following each patient around, at all times, to wipe up instantly?

http://www.healthcareimprovementscotland.org/our_work/inspecting_and_regulating_care/hei_greater_glasgow_reports/qeuh_mar_19.aspx

Imagine they had found even just one example like this from Liverpool’s own flagship hospital? On the ‘comments’ website for the flagship Royal Liverpool and Broadgreen University Hospital we see:

‘Every day at both visiting times, meal plates and medicine shot glasses were always left on my father’s table, including disposable temperature probes, which should have been discarded in the appropriate manner, his urinary catheter was almost overflowing and spills from this, when emptied were only wiped up when I requested this to be wiped as this was a trip hazard to my father.’

https://www.nhs.uk/Services/Trusts/ReviewsAndRatings/DefaultView.aspx?id=1143

At least one of our health correspondents would have been wetting herself on the way to the studio.

 

 

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Waiting-Times/Publications/2019-03-07/2019-03-07-Inpatient-and-Daycase-Waiting-Times-Trends-Summary.pdf

Any falling graph tends to cause concern, but the context is important. Just over 70.1% of patients were seen at the end of 2018, a fall of 0.6% from the end of 2017. The fall from the high point in 2012 is nearly 18%.

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Waiting-Times/Publications/2019-02-26/2019-02-26-WT-IPDCOP-Report.pdf

However, the increase in demand for outpatient treatment, since only 2014 has been a massive 26.9% and for inpatient treatment, it has seen an almost irresistible surge of 34.9%:

http://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/uploads/docs/report/2018/nr_181025_nhs_overview.pdf

That demand has increased by between 26.9 and 34.9%, while performance has only fallen by less than 18% means, unequivocally, that performance has improved dramatically at the same time.

Give these people a medal!

 

 

As you know, we’ve had many days, weeks, of electricity supply from wind power at well over the 100% demand level. However, we remain susceptible to the Trumpian critique that we cannot rely on wind every day, even in Scotland.

Battery storage is showing signs of accelerated development that will lead to it being at least a partial solution:

£20 million Scottish renewable energy storage unit for Broxburn will be first in UK

First battery-powered hotel in UK is in Scotland

However, it seems unlikely that battery storage will be enough, so recent developments in pumped storage look interesting. From Energy Voice, yesterday:

‘The developers of a Highland pumped storage project claim their technology is tailor-made to fill the supply gap left by offshore wind. The developers of the 450 megawatt (MW) Red John project in Inverness, last night described the need to meet the potential energy gap as “urgent”. As the most advanced site in Scotland, the Red John project could generate enough electricity to power over 400,000 homes.

From Red John (no relation)

‘UK wind developers were paid £125 million in curtailment charges last year alone – in other words, they were paid not to produce electricity. Our plans will go a long way to help get the maximum benefit of new renewable energy for the country and the environment.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/194339/highland-pumped-hydro-could-fill-offshore-wind-gap-claim-developers/

From an earlier report here explaining how this technology would work, see:

‘In the last couple of years, there has been a growing a number of news articles and blog posts published about energy storage, particularly in the form of battery systems. This interest is very reasonable, and the news is exciting because these systems can fill in wind power and solar power electricity production gaps.  However, it appears as though pumped hydro storage is being overlooked, with all the hype about batteries. It still has huge potential to help balance clean, renewable energy. In fact, all the discourse about battery storage seems to be supporting the idea that this form of storage is going to solve clean energy intermittency issues, but there are gaps in what batteries can provide, so let’s take a look at pumped hydro so we can see just how large a factor it could become.’

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/04/no-huge-energy-storage-breakthrough-needed-renewable-energy/

‘Pumped hydro storage’ is, as far as I can see, the same thing as out long-established hydroelectric power stations, such as the one at Cruachan. Here’s how the US system is illustrated:

I’m no technologist so is it just a hydroelectric power plant of the kind we have decades of working with? If so, why is this technology not being talked about for storage? My first reaction is that perhaps our hydroelectric power stations generate all the power they need by themselves to pump water back up for storage. There may however be other sites which would need the electricity from renewables to achieve their full storage potential. I don’t know. The US report suggests that there are potentially around 22 000 pumped hydro energy sites in Australia and that Germany already has plans to use the technology to store around 23Gw by 2050 so there must be something in this.

Finally, of course, there are environmental and safety concerns with battery storage while hydro is, to my knowledge, safer and more ecologically sound.

As in some earlier pieces, this is a social scientist dabbling in the physical sciences and technology, but I know some readers are equipped to clarify or correct.

 

In Insider today:

Scottish tourist attractions have welcomed an increase in the number of visitors for the fifth year running. Figures for 2018 were up 0.1% on last year which saw a 9.7% rise on 2016 and a 6% increase previously. The top 20 list made up for 59% of all visits with 10 of those based in Edinburgh. Sport and activity attractions saw a 7.7% increase across the country with castles and heritage sites up 4.2% and distilleries enjoying a 2.3% rise. Attractions across Dundee and Angus also recorded an increase in visitors, largely down to the V&A’s arrival in September. Discovery Point saw a 42% rise in visitors from 2017 with positive figures for Arbroath Abbey (up 18%) and Barry Mill (up 14%).’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/tourist-attraction-visitor-numbers-keep-14087240

Earlier evidence of growth in tourism has been reported here:

13% increase in number of people working in Scotland’s tourism sector since introduction of National Tourism Strategy

Humungous 45% increase in Scotch Whisky tourism!

Glasgow and Edinburgh push London into third place in tourism hotspots survey

Scottish tourism growth outpaces that in UK

Miles Better? Glasgow hotel revenue growing eight times faster than UK average

8% of the population but 13% of the hotel investment

More evidence of robust Scottish economy as hotel sector outperforms UK average

Scottish hotels outperform those in rest of UK: STV report good news for Scotland’s economy but fail to understand it

 

 

Watching Yes/No: Inside the Indyref episode one, 37 minutes in, I was struck by this:

Douglas Alexander:

‘Critically what Andrew’s research revealed was that middle voters were not equidistant between No and Yes.’

Andrew Cooper, PM David Cameron’s Chief Adviser:

‘They weren’t willing to say yes to independence, but their hearts were very close to it. More than three-quarters of them said that their feeling about the referendum was summed up by the phrase: ‘My heart says I want independence for Scotland, but my head says it may be too risky.’

‘And we concluded that with the time and resources we had available the central thrust of the campaign strategy had to be to focus on the risks because it was only those risks that were stopping them from being Yes voters.’

Alistair Darling:

‘I was very clear that the economic argument was their Achilles heel.’

So, right at the start, the No campaign was to take the low road, negative, fear-based, heartless:

Like most of you, I knew this, but I hadn’t heard those leading the No campaign admit so openly, yet untroubled, that they had conspired to rob the majority of what they wanted in their hearts.

What they revealed, by their words and by their calm demeanour, lacking even a trace of embarrassment never mind shame, is the cold psychopathic nature of their minds – self-centred, entitled, superior, callous – let me never meet any of them. I used to box, as recently as 1964.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00032q1/yesno-inside-the-indyref-series-1-1-the-fight-for-a-question

 

In a typically Anglocentric Guardian piece we read today:

‘Public satisfaction with the NHS is at its lowest level for a decade despite Theresa May’s £20.5bn-a-year funding boost and the enthusiasm created by the service’s 70th birthday. Barely half of people surveyed (53%) are happy with how the NHS is run, the lowest percentage since 2007. It is 16 percentage points lower than in 2010, when the coalition government’s austerity programme began. Satisfaction with GP services has fallen to its lowest level. Fewer than two-thirds (63%) of people in Britain are happy with them, while 24% say they are dissatisfied.’

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/07/satisfaction-with-nhs-falls-to-lowest-level-for-a-decade

Partly explaining the Guardian’s failure to consider the other three NHS areas, the original Nuffield report features no breakdown of the data

https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/research/public-satisfaction-with-the-nhs-and-social-care-in-2017

I’ve written to request NHS Scotland data. This is the just the latest in a trail of attempts to find Scottish data from surveys. These have either been rejected or ignored. My last success in getting Scottish data was in 2015 when I was able to report on the Commonwealth Foundation (USA) research into GP satisfaction and stress levels. See:

Already the best staffed and least stressed in the UK, Scottish GPs to get better contracts

In the absence of Scottish data, which I will report if I get it, here are some alternative sources, revealing, as you might expect, that SNP-led NHS Scotland is still held in high regard by its customers:

91% satisfaction with NHS Scotland staff! Patients even more satisfied than before

At 78% level of satisfaction with NHS Scotland is impressive 36% higher than for the NHS across UK

The Nuffield Trust has previously been more open in its recognition of the distinctive Scottish system. See:

Scottish Government funds new initiative to reduce planned waiting times in the wake of BMA praise for its new GP contract and illustrating what the Nuffield Trust called ‘a unique system of improving the quality of health care.’

‘Scotland has a unique system of improving the quality of health care’ says the Nuffield Trust: Looking at the full report and not the Labour/BBC Scotland extracts in July

 

See that claim about fewer qualifications? More below.

Here’s what the Scotsman opened with:

‘Schools in Scotland have “undoubtedly” suffered a narrowing of the subject choice for older pupils with growing concerns of a “uniform” approach to the classroom curriculum, MSPs have been warned. And Nicola Sturgeon’s flagship drive to narrow the attainment gap in Scotland’s schools could by undermined by the diminishing range of options for pupils, according to the Royal Society of Edinburgh (RSE).’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/subject-choices-narrow-at-scots-schools-amid-teacher-shortage-1-4885639

When I see terms like ‘royal society’ and ‘royal college’ used to try to boost the credibility of surveys, I reach for my keyboard.

 

First, on the mythical teacher shortages, see these:

In UK, 16.4 pupils for every teacher: 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/282994/pupil-teacher-ratio-in-the-united-kingdom-uk-y-on-y-by-school-type/

In Scotland, only 13.6 pupils for every teacher

https://www.gov.scot/publications/summary-statistics-schools-scotland-8-2017-edition/pages/3/

Also:

The number of people in teacher training in Scotland has gone up for the third year running, according to new figures.

There are nearly 4,000 new student teachers in Scotland this year.

The Scottish government also said the number of vacancies being advertised for more than three months had fallen sharply.

The latest Scottish government figures show the number of posts in secondary schools advertised for more than three months fell from 229 last year to 148 this year.

Despite the drop, that figure is still significantly higher than in 2016, when only 75 posts remained unfilled for more than three months.

The Scottish government statistics also show:

• Student teacher intake increased for three years in a row, reaching 3,902 in 2018 compared to 3,376 in 2015-16
• Growth in teacher numbers across all STEM subjects (Science, Technical, Engineering and Mathematics)
• 1,494 student teachers will start at secondary level, up from 1,226 in 2017

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-46501068

 

Second, on leaving with fewer qualifications:

‘For the first time more than 30% of pupils left school with a minimum of five passes at Higher Level or better, up from 22.2% in 2009/10. The gap between those from the most and least deprived areas achieving a pass at Higher Level or better is now at a record low, reducing for the eighth successive year.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/record-high-for-school-leavers-in-positive-destinations

‘The proportion of 2017/18 school leavers with one pass or more at Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF) Level 4 or above was 96.2% (similar to 2016/17, 96.3%); attainment at SCQF Level 5 or above has decreased slightly (from 86.1% to 85.9%) whereas attainment at SCQF Level 6 or above had increased (from 61.2% to 62.2%).’

https://news.gov.scot/news/school-leaver-attainment-and-destinations-2