Talking-up Scotland

Strong supporters of the No campaign in 2014, the Scottish branch of the FSB were recently surveyed and made the EU a priority market ahead of the US, Canada, Australia or China. They said:

‘More than half of the 1,758 small firms polled – 191 of which were Scottish – for the survey said they found it easier to export to the EU than trade out-with the single market.’

Remember the rUK is not as yet an export destination but when it does become one, I feel sure our businesses will be able to export there barrier free-as English businesses have more to lose than we do by sheer virtue of their number and the scale of their sales to us. You know the argument. The European manufacturers will not allow high tariffs on UK goods because the same applied to their goods would damage them more than us. As with the UK and Scotland, they export more to us than we do to them. They have more to lose. However there are many EU nations and they don’t all rely on exports to the UK so there is a risk a majority might actually prefer to punish the UK and out-vote those who do export heavily to us. Theresa May’s secret deal with Nissan suggests this might be the case. There will only be one rUK so we can be sure their manufacturers will be able to prevent any rUK government trying to punish us for leaving.

So, watching rUK sail off out of the single market, the FSB must surely see the sense in switching sides and supporting Scottish independence in the EU?

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/business/business-news/390225/fsb-warns-scotland-can-ill-afford-brexit-export-slowdown/

© bbc.co.uk

Remember Alex Salmond calling for Tony Blair to be charged with war crimes? If you’re older, remember Maggie Thatcher preventing the arrest of brutal Chilean dictator, Augusto Pinochet while he was in the UK for surgery? Well, Theresa May is heading to Scotland next week and I hope to have her arrested if I can. I might not make it myself so I’m asking readers who can to be there, just in case, to do a citizens’s arrest for me. Why, well here’s what Amnesty International have to say:

‘We know that UK-made weapons are amongst those claiming Yemeni lives. By continuing to supply Saudi Arabia and the coalition with arms, the UK risk complicity in acts that may amount to war crimes. The UK government is now being taken to court over the legality of these arms transfers – and they are feeling the pressure.’

You’ll have seen Theresa’s visit to Saudi, crawling for arms deals and maybe heard her reprimand for her own Foreign Minister Boris when he had the nerve to tell the truth about their war crimes in Yemen. British cluster bombs were used in Saudi Arabia’s Yemen campaign and UK military personnel are actually there training Saudi personnel in the use of UK-manufactured weapons. As the attacks are driving the people of Yemen into famine, the UK continues to sell the Saudis billions of pounds worth of weapons. Theresa, no saint she, is fully committed to this dirty business. Ironically, hypocritically, unconvincingly, the UK is actually currently investigating 257 alleged breaches of international humanitarian law committed in Yemen by Saudi Arabia. That they’re using our weapons advised by our staff is bound to make this difficult.

The Prime Minister of Yemen has accused the May government of direct involvement in war crimes:

‘Prime Minister Abdulaziz bin Habtour spoke scathingly about how the British Government cares more about making profits from arms sales to Saudi Arabia than the humanitarian disaster in his country. “They have sold cluster bombs to Saudi Arabia”, he told Sky News in his office in the capital Sana’a. “They know the Saudis are going to drop them on Yemen … in Sa’adah and in Sana’a and other provinces. I don’t think they are guilty of war crimes, I believe so. They are participating in the bombing of Yemen people.”’

This kind of puts our grievances into perspective, I suppose, but it’s the kind of heartless post-imperial behaviour that is actual the main reason I want independence.

https://www.amnesty.org.uk/actions/stop-uk-made-weapons-claiming-yemeni-lives

https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2017/2/8/britain-failed-to-investigate-war-crimes-allegations-court-hears

http://news.sky.com/story/yemens-rebel-pm-accuses-uk-of-war-crimes-with-saudi-arms-sales-10693334

From the Guardian on 18^th March based on the Opinium Poll for the Observer:

 ‘A survey by Opinium for the Observer shows that 54% agree that the UK’s vote to leave the EU has made a break-up more likely. Among Scots, the figure is even higher, at 63%.’

The actual report doesn’t seem to be available yet so I rely on the Guardian article. Either way it’s pretty encouraging and suggests the other opinion polls are getting ‘conservative’ or ‘status quo’ responses from individual voters about their own voting intentions. If you think others are going to vote for independence yet say ‘don’t know’ about your own intentions then I read that as a ‘shy’ response to a question considered a bit ‘unacceptable’ to some who you think might think negatively of you. Remember all the ‘shy’ Tory voters at the last general election? I know myself, as a confirmed Yes supporter, I remain uneasy about seeming too nationalistic. It’s an especially strong reservation among older voters who have long suffered insults if they think people will think them narrow or vulgar nationalists. However, if you’re asked what the rest of the population might do, these sensitivities are reduced. Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 2,007 UK adults aged 18+ from 14 to 17 March 2017. Online surveys tend to be more accurate than face-to-face interview methods where the above reluctance to be honest is more often present.

The Guardian notes:

‘The figures are likely to make uncomfortable reading for the Conservative government. Theresa May, the prime minister, is already planning a tour of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in an attempt to build a consensus before triggering article 50.’

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/18/majority-britons-believe-brexit-break-up-uk-nicola-sturgeon-theresa-may

© http://static.oddschecker.com

Writing in Political Betting on the 19^th March, Union-supporter and political betting adviser, Keiran Pedley, is confident the Yes-case is weak but warns No-supporter and tempted backers that doesn’t mean it won’t win because the No case is too. Here’s his headline:

‘The case for Scottish Independence is full of holes writes Keiran Pedley but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.’

Needless to say his case for the Yes campaign being weak is based heavily on the arguments that the Scottish economy is too weak, misreading the polls and that we’d be ‘at the back of the queue for EU membership. He also seems to think Ruth Davidson will be effective. I’m not going to discuss that for reasons obvious to all of you. We’ve already seen the rebuttals of the first part at:

‘London professor and tax expert rejects “nonsense” data used against Scottish independence movement’

As for the EU, like most, he’s accepting the clearly bitter and wrong Spanish case. See:

‘6 Unionist Myths on Scottish EU Membership Debunked’ at:

http://yescotland.com/2017/03/20/6-unionist-myths-on-scottish-eu-membership-debunked/

However, leaving that aside, he does a good job of reminding No-supporters why they should worry. His headline is a bit of an understatement when you read it. Here’s an excerpt:

‘Those getting complacent about Scotland’s future in the Union would be wise to think again. Whilst it is true that Theresa May can control the timing of any vote she cannot refuse one forever. A second referendum is coming and the context of that vote is that the UK voted to leave the EU but Scotland voted Remain. That has changed the game. So if the Brexit negotiations go anything other than swimmingly, the SNP will have a stick with which to beat the Independence drum alongside the grievance of a referendum withheld by Westminster. This is before we even touch the problematic dynamics of a future campaign itself. What will the ‘No’ campaign’s message be? Who will be in charge? What will Scottish Labour’s role be?….. We are about to enter an extremely turbulent time politically. If Theresa May does not emerge with a good Brexit deal …then the case for Scottish Independence will look very different in two years’ time than it does right now….The conventional wisdom on this issue seems to have lurched into alarmingly complacent territory and that worries me greatly.’

Finally, the real betting pundits, the bookies, think Yes will win:

Never mind the opinion polls or the media or the academics, the bookies confidently back a Yes vote in Indyref 2

I’m not a betting man but if I was, do I know where I’d chance a wee flutter? Yes I do!

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/03/19/dont-get-complacent-scotlands-future-in-the-union-is-hanging-by-a-thread/

© stv.tv

Actually it was the experience of Scottish actor Daniel Portman in the TV series ‘Game of Thrones’. He survived and though loyal to the nasty Lannister family on screen he has the sense to reject its Westminster equivalent in Tory rule of Scotland.

In the Bolton News yesterday, he said:

‘If I could run the British Empire for a day I would give Scotland its independence. I am absolutely for it with the kind of mess we are in now.’

The Reid Kerr College, Paisley, acting and performing graduate, is passionate about Scottish Independence.

https://stv.tv/news/features/1351263-game-of-thrones-star-daniel-portman-on-season-six-and-staying-positive/

http://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/leisure/showbiz/15167169.Daniel_Portman_calls_for_Scottish_independence_at_Empire_Awards/

© bbc.co.uk

I know the polls have been mixed recently with the most recent Panelbase poll putting support for independence as low as 44% while another two BMG and the above Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (SSAS) putting it too close to call.  I’ve already questioned the reliability of the Panelbase poll of only 185 respondents at:

The same percentage of Scots wants a second independence referendum before Brexit as Brits wanted Brexit in the first place.

However, I’ve just had confirmation from SSAS that they interviewed face-to-face and not online. I’ve already written about the effects of the two methods of data collection but the key point is that the former tends to generate conservative, status quo, ‘shy’ responses especially on controversial topics such as this so the results may be understating support for independence. See this for a fuller explanation:

Why the 49% supporting independence in today’s BMG poll may be more accurate and much more optimistic than other recent polls suggesting a wider gap.

Taking all the recent polls together and bearing in mind they are all limited in the extent to which you should bet on them, one this seems certain; we can say to Theresa: ‘Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya?’

Sorry veggies, but see this from Scotland Food and Drink yesterday:

‘Overall food and drink exports from Scotland grew by £421 million in 2016, to a record £5.5 billion, representing an 8% increase in the value of exports to Scotland’s successful food and drink sector over the past year. In the meat category as a whole Scotland increased exports by 11% to £72 million, of which 90% was to Europe. Overall, food exports alone grew by 22% to £1.5 billion during 2016.’

The main markets are in France, Belgium, Luxemburg and the Netherlands, taking 67.8% of beef and lambs exports from Scotland. Denmark has more pigs than people so that might be a tougher market to break but there were other areas of notable increases:

Baltic countries up 444%

Central and Eastern Europe up 197%

Nordic countries up 19% (pigs?)

Germany up 23%

 Does that mean rUK is not our biggest market for something are they not counting sales there as exports?

http://www.scotlandfoodanddrink.org/news/article-info/7430/scotlands-meat-exports-up-11-in-2016.aspx

© dailypost.co.uk

The BBC report describes him a ‘Conservative party whip.’ You see what difference it makes to use lower case and make the terms generic not to mention just a bit kinky – those Tories eh? Here’s the BBC headline:

‘A Wales Office minister has described Scotland as “another country” after a recent trip to Edinburgh.’

Isn’t Edinburgh the least Scottish of our cities? Wander round the University and you’ll think you’re in another country too – England, the posher bits.

The Wales Office Minister’s name is ‘Guto Bebb’. The name has attracted attention. To the modern tongue it does sound a bit odd. ‘Guto’ means the same as ‘Augusto’ – ‘magic’, ‘majestic’. ‘Bebb’ is possibly a variant of the Old English ‘Babb’ meaning baby.’  The word ‘Welsh’ is from Old English meaning ‘not-free’ or ‘servile.’ That’s how the English Tories like all their Celts.

Guto apparently left Edinburgh feeling ‘despondent’ because of its apparent sense of nationhood. He said:

‘The sense of nationhood in Edinburgh is palpable. For a long time it has been satisfied within the UK. Is that changing though? My gut feeling is yes and that should be a cause for regret to all of us.’

See that ‘satisfied?’ Does he mean satisfied with being ‘servile?’ Well, ‘Welsh’ may mean ‘servile’ but the origin of the word ‘Scot’ is unknown. ‘Scot-free’ however does mean: ‘without suffering any punishment or injury.’ I’ll take that.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39321008

© bbc.co.uk

More than a month ago, I wrote about UK Environment Secretary, Andrea ‘Scotland is full of subsidy junkies’ Leadsom. She was quoted as saying:

‘Scotch whisky is a driving force of the UK food and drink industry, accounting for nearly one-quarter of all our food and drink exports each year.’

I think she might have more accurately said ‘the driving force’. We make most of the gin too? That’s a bit of a tonic.

https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2017/01/scottish-drinks-industry-receives-burns-night-boost/

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/02/13/food-and-drink-special-scotlands-exports-surge-and-new-snp-policies-will-maintain-the-growth/

Today, the Scottish Government announced a record year for Scottish food and drinks exports. Growing by 8% or £421 million to £5.5 billion and having doubled in the time of the SNP administrations, here’s a quick summary:

‘Food exports alone grew by 22% to £1.5 billion. The fish and seafood category recorded the largest overall increase of £156 million (up 26%), with Europe the leading export destination. Exports to EU countries were worth £2.3 billion overall, up £133 million last year. Scotch Whisky exports grew by £153 million (up 4%) to over £4 billion in 2016.’

Crucially, the profit margins for food and drinks sales are high by contrast with other exports. The UK is a big arms trader but the profit margins on advanced weapons are small as the development costs are high and we have often have to bribe Saudi princes to get the contracts.

I’ve only got a US example but I suspect our development costs are no lower. On an F16 fighter, the profit margin is only allegedly 11%. It’s 60% for Scotch. Also, I doubt that the profit margin on the F16 takes into account government grants and development costs. The development costs for the F35, which the UK hopes to buy for its aircraft carriers, have risen from 233 to 379 billion dollars! Those costs will have to be recouped in the sales.

https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2015/07/government-told-to-intervene-in-scotch/

https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/07/17/fighter-jets-2016-who-makes-the-10-top-sellers-and.aspx

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/04/f-35-stealth-jet-fighter-uk-faces-billions-extra-cost

http://news.gov.scot/news/record-year-for-food-and-drink-exports

 

The mainstream media have characterised this as the Scottish people being ‘split’ on the question:  ‘Theresa May should insist that any second Scottish referendum on independence takes place only once Britain has concluded the process of leaving the EU.’

ComRes interviewed only 185 Scottish ‘adults’. Did that include 16 year-olds? 48% responded ‘no’, 44% responded ‘yes’ and 8% said they didn’t know. It’s very common to leave out the ‘don’t knows’ and do the calculations again.

Only 47% of the total Scottish electorate voted No in Referendum 2014.

The 8% ‘don’t knows’ in the survey amount to 15 people, the 48% amount to 89 people and the 44% amount to 81.  So with 170 holding an actual view we have 89 out of 170 or more than 52% saying ‘yes’. Does that seem a bit marginal to you? What does that 52% remind me of? Oh yes, the Brexit leave vote was 52% but with 13 million non-voters and not just 15 non-respondents.

We’ve only just started to debate this issue and, as far as I can see, the ComRes question was posed without contextual data such as how long are we actually talking about. If the question had been: ‘Theresa May should insist that any second Scottish referendum on independence takes place no sooner than early 2019.’ What might the result have been?

If the poll had asked a reasonable sample of at least 1 000 Scots what might the result have been?