The same percentage of Scots wants a second independence referendum before Brexit as Brits wanted Brexit in the first place.

The mainstream media have characterised this as the Scottish people being ‘split’ on the question:  ‘Theresa May should insist that any second Scottish referendum on independence takes place only once Britain has concluded the process of leaving the EU.’

ComRes interviewed only 185 Scottish ‘adults’. Did that include 16 year-olds? 48% responded ‘no’, 44% responded ‘yes’ and 8% said they didn’t know. It’s very common to leave out the ‘don’t knows’ and do the calculations again.

Only 47% of the total Scottish electorate voted No in Referendum 2014.

The 8% ‘don’t knows’ in the survey amount to 15 people, the 48% amount to 89 people and the 44% amount to 81.  So with 170 holding an actual view we have 89 out of 170 or more than 52% saying ‘yes’. Does that seem a bit marginal to you? What does that 52% remind me of? Oh yes, the Brexit leave vote was 52% but with 13 million non-voters and not just 15 non-respondents.

We’ve only just started to debate this issue and, as far as I can see, the ComRes question was posed without contextual data such as how long are we actually talking about. If the question had been: ‘Theresa May should insist that any second Scottish referendum on independence takes place no sooner than early 2019.’ What might the result have been?

If the poll had asked a reasonable sample of at least 1 000 Scots what might the result have been?

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6 thoughts on “The same percentage of Scots wants a second independence referendum before Brexit as Brits wanted Brexit in the first place.

  1. Piotr March 19, 2017 / 1:47 pm

    A different but more interesting question to ask is “Should the referendum take place at a time that would ensure Scots can choose whether to remain in the EU or not?”

    Liked by 2 people

  2. scottishmomus March 19, 2017 / 4:19 pm

    If the Scottish Government did not give the Scottish people the choice to choose a different future, they could be accused of a dereliction of duty, considering it was part of the SNP manifesto and they were duly elected to hold office and represent the voters.
    A big part of the problem appears to be that many parts of the UK simply do not see Scotland as a country in its own right and are rather annoyed that a perceived assimilated region is taking their ball home and not playing. It’s unfortunate that that is how Scotland is perceived by many but it is telling that so many view Brexit as more important than the union. So be it. Our paths diverge. Scotland will no longer be dictated to and, I hope, will become an independent haven for those most in need of shelter when The Brexshit hits.

    Liked by 1 person

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