‘Don’t get complacent [No-supporters] – Scotland’s future in the Union is hanging by a thread.’

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Writing in Political Betting on the 19th March, Union-supporter and political betting adviser, Keiran Pedley, is confident the Yes-case is weak but warns No-supporter and tempted backers that doesn’t mean it won’t win because the No case is too. Here’s his headline:

‘The case for Scottish Independence is full of holes writes Keiran Pedley but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.’

Needless to say his case for the Yes campaign being weak is based heavily on the arguments that the Scottish economy is too weak, misreading the polls and that we’d be ‘at the back of the queue for EU membership. He also seems to think Ruth Davidson will be effective. I’m not going to discuss that for reasons obvious to all of you. We’ve already seen the rebuttals of the first part at:

‘London professor and tax expert rejects “nonsense” data used against Scottish independence movement’

As for the EU, like most, he’s accepting the clearly bitter and wrong Spanish case. See:

‘6 Unionist Myths on Scottish EU Membership Debunked’ at:


However, leaving that aside, he does a good job of reminding No-supporters why they should worry. His headline is a bit of an understatement when you read it. Here’s an excerpt:

‘Those getting complacent about Scotland’s future in the Union would be wise to think again. Whilst it is true that Theresa May can control the timing of any vote she cannot refuse one forever. A second referendum is coming and the context of that vote is that the UK voted to leave the EU but Scotland voted Remain. That has changed the game. So if the Brexit negotiations go anything other than swimmingly, the SNP will have a stick with which to beat the Independence drum alongside the grievance of a referendum withheld by Westminster. This is before we even touch the problematic dynamics of a future campaign itself. What will the ‘No’ campaign’s message be? Who will be in charge? What will Scottish Labour’s role be?….. We are about to enter an extremely turbulent time politically. If Theresa May does not emerge with a good Brexit deal …then the case for Scottish Independence will look very different in two years’ time than it does right now….The conventional wisdom on this issue seems to have lurched into alarmingly complacent territory and that worries me greatly.’

Finally, the real betting pundits, the bookies, think Yes will win:

Never mind the opinion polls or the media or the academics, the bookies confidently back a Yes vote in Indyref 2

I’m not a betting man but if I was, do I know where I’d chance a wee flutter? Yes I do!



5 thoughts on “‘Don’t get complacent [No-supporters] – Scotland’s future in the Union is hanging by a thread.’

    • johnrobertson834 March 21, 2017 / 11:54 am

      And the letter below: Foxcubsdad says:
      March 15 2017 at 11:06 am
      It is widely acknowledged, including by the unashamedly pro-union BBC, that the motivation for creating GERS was political.

      A leaked memo from Ian Lang to John Major said
      “I judge that it is just what is needed at present in our campaign to maintain the initiative and undermine the other parties. This initiative could score against all of them.”

      Clear evidence that the estimates were designed to support the aims of the Conservatives.

      No one has bothered to come up with anything different since then.


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