Scottish Social Attitudes Survey suggesting Scottish independence support ‘at highest ever level’ may be understating support due to method used

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I know the polls have been mixed recently with the most recent Panelbase poll putting support for independence as low as 44% while another two BMG and the above Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (SSAS) putting it too close to call.  I’ve already questioned the reliability of the Panelbase poll of only 185 respondents at:

The same percentage of Scots wants a second independence referendum before Brexit as Brits wanted Brexit in the first place.

However, I’ve just had confirmation from SSAS that they interviewed face-to-face and not online. I’ve already written about the effects of the two methods of data collection but the key point is that the former tends to generate conservative, status quo, ‘shy’ responses especially on controversial topics such as this so the results may be understating support for independence. See this for a fuller explanation:

Why the 49% supporting independence in today’s BMG poll may be more accurate and much more optimistic than other recent polls suggesting a wider gap.

Taking all the recent polls together and bearing in mind they are all limited in the extent to which you should bet on them, one this seems certain; we can say to Theresa: ‘Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya?’

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2 thoughts on “Scottish Social Attitudes Survey suggesting Scottish independence support ‘at highest ever level’ may be understating support due to method used

  1. John March 20, 2017 / 2:16 pm

    I bet she doesn’t at the moment but when it comes nearer the time to vote it will be another story , she will have the BBC , ITV , SKY, MSM ,Uncle Tom Cobley and all , on her side , wonder what fairy tales it will be this time .

    Liked by 1 person

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