Good News: 63% of Scots think the Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely

(Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

From the Guardian on 18th March based on the Opinium Poll for the Observer:

 ‘A survey by Opinium for the Observer shows that 54% agree that the UK’s vote to leave the EU has made a break-up more likely. Among Scots, the figure is even higher, at 63%.’

The actual report doesn’t seem to be available yet so I rely on the Guardian article. Either way it’s pretty encouraging and suggests the other opinion polls are getting ‘conservative’ or ‘status quo’ responses from individual voters about their own voting intentions. If you think others are going to vote for independence yet say ‘don’t know’ about your own intentions then I read that as a ‘shy’ response to a question considered a bit ‘unacceptable’ to some who you think might think negatively of you. Remember all the ‘shy’ Tory voters at the last general election? I know myself, as a confirmed Yes supporter, I remain uneasy about seeming too nationalistic. It’s an especially strong reservation among older voters who have long suffered insults if they think people will think them narrow or vulgar nationalists. However, if you’re asked what the rest of the population might do, these sensitivities are reduced. Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 2,007 UK adults aged 18+ from 14 to 17 March 2017. Online surveys tend to be more accurate than face-to-face interview methods where the above reluctance to be honest is more often present.

The Guardian notes:

‘The figures are likely to make uncomfortable reading for the Conservative government. Theresa May, the prime minister, is already planning a tour of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in an attempt to build a consensus before triggering article 50.’

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/18/majority-britons-believe-brexit-break-up-uk-nicola-sturgeon-theresa-may

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12 thoughts on “Good News: 63% of Scots think the Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely

    • johnrobertson834 March 21, 2017 / 11:54 am

      And the letter belwo: Foxcubsdad says:
      March 15 2017 at 11:06 am
      It is widely acknowledged, including by the unashamedly pro-union BBC, that the motivation for creating GERS was political.

      A leaked memo from Ian Lang to John Major said
      “I judge that it is just what is needed at present in our campaign to maintain the initiative and undermine the other parties. This initiative could score against all of them.”

      Clear evidence that the estimates were designed to support the aims of the Conservatives.

      No one has bothered to come up with anything different since then.

      Liked by 1 person

  1. macgilleleabhar March 21, 2017 / 12:38 pm

    I look forward to Ms. May doing a grand tour of the colonies. It should be worth at lest another 10% on the Independence vote. They really don’t do self awareness.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Contrary March 21, 2017 / 1:17 pm

    It is peculiar that the tories do not seem to realise how unpopular they are outside of their strongholds, lying to the public about that unpopularity is one thing, but lying to themselves does not seem like a productive strategy. I think there will be a lot of muddled unionists, I am sure a lot of whom do not quite adhere to the far right glory of Theresa May and the Brexit shambles.

    You can tell who is unionist, they are almost permanently angry – the MSM reports that unionists were scared to speak out – I think it was the other way round, when you have aggressive outspoken people on one side you assume that that must be the majority view and many people do not like confrontation, particularly if your views are not strong, so keep silent. Voting is done in private for a reason. Em, anyway, my point, Theresa May seems to have made a mistake, being not too popular as it is, by seemingly blocking an independence referendum – colleagues that may (or may not) have been more interested in their mortgages at the last independence referendum are now showing a great amount of interest in how to get a fairer take on news and opinion, making it clear they do not trust the MSM ,,,

    Liked by 1 person

    • johnrobertson834 March 21, 2017 / 3:14 pm

      ‘the MSM reports that unionists were scared to speak out – I think it was the other way round, when you have aggressive outspoken people on one side you assume that that must be the majority view and many people do not like confrontation, particularly if your views are not strong, so keep silent.’ Yes, that’s it I think.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Alasdair Macdonald March 21, 2017 / 9:36 pm

      I think the Tories are aware of how unpopular they are, but they do not really care, because they have a sense of entitlement and a belief that the rest of us do not matter. They own almost all the media, even the ‘public’ bits like the BBC, which puts out their ‘narrative’ and denigrates the alternatives. They are adept at divide-and-rule.

      I remember listening to a phone-in during the 2014 referendum, and there was a call from a woman in one of the affluent parts of Fife. “I am looking at the Stock Market figures and the value of my investments is falling. This is because people think that Scotland is going to be independent. ‘WHAT RIGHT DO PEOPLE IN COUNCIL ESTATES IN EDINBURGH AND DUNDEE HAVE, TO CAUSE ME TO LOSE MONEY?” (My capitalisation)

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Dawn in NL March 22, 2017 / 10:15 am

    John, thanks for these articles. We need this when we are being bombarded with Scotland too wee etc and SNP bad. Well done for finding this empty niche to fill.

    Like

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