Talking-up Scotland

The STUC has called for extra powers to be allocated to the Scottish government post-Brexit. In particular, they want the ability to set a higher minimum wage, to protect the rights of EU nationals living in Scotland and greater control over immigration.

Looking at yesterday’s announcement by the Scottish Government on breaking down employment barriers you can see an affinity between government and workers’ leaders unknown previously in the UK. It reminds a little of my previous piece on Scots seeing their country as more like the Scandinavian ones than Britain. These countries, indeed most EU countries, have a more constructive relationship between their governments and their trades unions. It’s no accident that they also have healthier manufacturing industries, greater innovation in the workplace and better productivity. You may already have noticed that Scotland’s productivity outstrips that of rUK. See:

Scotland’s productivity has grown by almost 10% since 2007 while the rest of the UK’s has only grown by 0.1% so the SNP government pushes on by increasing funding for digital skills by £36 million.

The traditional ‘us and them’ mentality of British industry was a major cause of our industrial decline in the past and sadly still persists in England.

Here’s a short extract from the Scottish Government initiative announcement:

‘£500,000 for Workplace Equality Fund.’

‘Funding of £500,000 to address long standing barriers in accessing the labour market has been announced by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. The Workplace Equality Fund will reduce employment inequalities so that everyone – irrespective of gender, race or disability – has the opportunity to fulfil their potential, and improve Scotland’s economic performance as a result.’

This kind of thing makes me really proud to be a Scot.

I really respect the loyalty of the 18% or so of the voters still, according to the polls, committing themselves to voting Labour but the need to keep out the Tories in Scotland is surely paramount. Look at the policies on offer and vote SNP this time. You can always return to Labour after independence. As for those former Labour supporters who are now part of the Tory surge, I daren’t say what I think here.

https://news.gov.scot/news/breaking-down-employment-barriers

A CBI Scotland survey has revealed further evidence of a strengthening economy. The percentage of firms reporting growth was up 19%. The percentage of firms reporting employment numbers was up 11%. Across the 33 firms, average domestic order growth was up 7% and export order growth was up an impressive 15%.

The full report is, needless to say, a bit more grudging and hesitant than my highlights but you’ll remember CBI Scotland came out in favour of No in 2014, before some of their members threatened to pull out as they had not been properly consulted.

Overall, though, it adds to the good news I’ve reported recently on general unemployment down, the demand for professionals up, businesses showing greater health than in rUK and  construction and energy sectors positively booming.

Hugh Aitken, CBI Scotland Director, said:

‘Scottish manufacturing output has strengthened and employment in our factories has also risen at a decent rate. Domestic and export orders growth remains decent and firms are optimistic that they will pick-up over both the next quarter and the year ahead.’

‘Decent?’ Some folk are never happy.

http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/scottish-manufacturers-see-output-grow-cbi/

© scottishfinancialnews

The Federation of Master Builder’s survey for the first quarter of 2017 has revealed that workloads rose faster than they have since the end of 2007. That is now five quarters in a row of sustained growth in Scottish housebuilding. While they express some concern about the ‘uncertainty’ caused by next Independence referendum, this seems to me to be unfounded and a bit of a cliché being rolled out by businesses.  The Scottish Financial News has already reported that Indyref2 is unlikely to have any negative effects on deals and major UK housebuilder, Bellway, has already insisted Scottish independence would be no barrier to further growth. See:

Major UK Housebuilder says Scottish Independence no barrier to continued growth

Here are the main points from the FMB survey:

1. Scottish construction SME workloads rose faster than at any time since Q4 2007;
2. One in two construction SMEs predict rising workloads in the coming months, with just 5% predicting a decrease in activity;
3. However, 85% of builders believe that material prices will rise in the next three months;
4. 58% of firms are struggling to hire carpenters, the highest reported level since the financial crisis.

I think we all know where the blame for point 4 lies – decades of Tory and New Labour neglect of the real economy in favour of the financial sector.

This follows on from another very positive report in March:

‘Scottish construction employment closes 2016 at 3-year high’

Both of these also follow on from a Scottish Government budget announced for 2017/18, of over £470m of direct capital investment to begin delivery of 50,000 affordable homes,

http://news.gov.scot/news/boost-for-infrastructure

https://www.fmb.org.uk/about-the-fmb/newsroom/scottish-builders-are-booming/

Today’s BMG/Herald poll is headlined in the Herald as:

‘Independence support fails to rise after Theresa May’s vote snub’

The other mainstream media outlets are all saying the same thing and they’re all making the same two mistakes.

First, is there any evidence that Scots believe Westminster can really stop us holding a referendum, properly monitored and declaring independence on a positive outcome? Do any of us feel snubbed? We all know that the international community would make it impossible for them to refuse us. So, the fact that it’s holding steady, after three years, in the shortest of striking distances, calls for a different kind of headline, I’d say:

‘Anxiety in Westminster as support for independence holds steady and the result is too close to call even before campaigning begins.’

Second, here are the figures:

‘Excluding those who haven’t yet made up their mind, that puts support for independence at 49 per cent, and 51 per cent in favour of the Union.’

Right at the end of the article an SNP spokesman gets a chance to say:

‘This latest poll again shows a dead heat between Yes and No and that’s before the potential re-election of an extremist Conservative government and its devastating Hard-Brexit agenda. With the potential for more years of tax cuts for the rich, attacks on the disabled, horrific policies such as the Rape Clause and huge cuts to essential public services, all of which Scotland did not vote for, it is essential that the people of Scotland can choose between this nightmare and putting our own future in our hands with independence.’

 Reading the above and getting to start the race from this position, I have no fears.

 http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/15241400.Independence_support_fails_to_rise_after_Theresa_May_s_vote_snub/

You’ve seen the two recent polls suggesting a wee fall for the SNP and some kind of surge for the Tories:

Survation Poll:

SNP 43.1%
Conservatives 27.9%
Labour 17.8%
Liberal Democrats 8.8%

 

Panelbase Poll:

 SNP 44%
Conservatives 33%
Labour 13%
Liberal Democrats 5%

I’ve already written to explain why this will make little difference to the outcome in June. In most seats the SNP vote is larger than all the others put together. Tactical voting by the other three is almost impossible to organise even if you could persuade people who naturally despise Tory policies to abandon their principles and vote for them. Also, where will the Green vote go? For me, the SNP fall is a wee protest at lack of progress on getting independence. They’ll come back. As for the Tory ‘surge’, this is the high water mark for the Labour defection to them. Once they see the manifestos and have a good think, many of them will return to their left-of-centre principles and either abstain, vote Labour grudgingly or even decide this is the time to support the only party that can protect them, the SNP.

More important for me than the SNP vote is the Yes vote at the next referendum and the polls in the same period tell us it’s holding up even before the campaign starts.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Survation Poll:

Yes 46.9% (+0.1)
No 53.1% (-0.1)

Panelbase Poll:
Yes 45% (+1)
No 55% (-1)

So, maybe a wee bit of dissatisfaction with the SNP but support for Yes still hovering within striking distance of a win after campaigning gets going properly, after we see the Tories for what they really are, as the renewables boom grows and after the recovery of the oil and gas sector in the North Sea becomes more clear.

© Daily Record

You have no doubt seen all the headlines predicting a Tory surge of up to 12 seats gained from the SNP based on recent polls showing SNP support falling to around 43 or 44% and Tory support climbing to between 28 and 30%. Fear not, it won’t be enough and it’s not as solid as it looks. The idea is that tactical voting by unionists will result in numerous Tory victories. This is unlikely for at least three reasons. According to Ipsos Mori Scotland, reported in the Scotsman yesterday:

1. In 38 of the 56 constituencies won by the SNP in 2015, the nationalist vote is larger than that of the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats combined.
2. Even in seats where it would be possible, it would require an ‘extraordinary feat of organisation’ to make it happen
3. Tactical voters would have to know who the strongest unionist candidate is and this is not always clear.

The Scotsman piece based on Ipsos Mori Scotland, predicted the SNP to hold around 50 seats and concluded:

‘Tactical voting will have a “limited effect” in Scotland with only a handful of constituencies expected to change hands, experts have said. Analysts poured cold water on calls for voters to abandon their principles and vote for the strongest Unionist, non-Tory or anti-Brexit candidate, warning that only a handful of seats were close enough for tactical voting to have an impact.’

I’d add another two thoughts. The long-standing hostility between Tory, Labour and LibDem supporters will limit just how many are prepared to betray their social values and vote for the still often despised Tories. As we get closer to the day, leaflets popping through the doors will make clear just what else you are voting for if you vote Tory. Many will balk at this at return to their old loyalties.

An artist’s impression of the world’s largest floating windfarm planned off the coast of Scotland. Photograph: Statoil ASA

The giant Kishorn dry dock will re-open in August, creating 200 new jobs and the first wind farm will be in the water 15km of the coast of Kincardineshire by spring 2018. This looks like being the beginning of the missing link in Scotland’s vibrant renewables sector – the actual construction of the turbines. Scotland’s Minister for Business, Innovation and Energy, Paul Wheelhouse, who attended the contract signing ceremony, said:

”With 25% of Europe’s offshore wind potential, and through development with due regard to our natural environment, Scotland is strongly positioned to maximise the economic and environmental benefits that both technologies can deliver. The Scottish Government is determined to ensure projects deliver supply chain jobs in communities across Scotland and we have been encouraging developers to do all they can to maximise their economic impact, so today’s agreement is very welcome.”

Note that 25% figure? With the right investment Scotland can become one of the major players in this industry. That we have not been building the turbines ourselves is down to lack of political autonomy. There is not the desire in Westminster to make us successful. With independence, there will be.

That these are to be floating windfarms is important. I’ve already written about their advantages. Stanford University has summarised them:

1. The first and most immediately compelling advantage of floating offshore wind is access to incredible wind resource over deep waters. Currently we can only access a small fraction of the offshore wind resource worldwide due to depth constraints.
2. Offshore wind is recognized for its proximity to load centers but often still encounters significant NIMBY (“Not In My Back Yard”) resistance. Population centers tend to cluster near the coastlines, so offshore wind minimizes the distance from generation to load centers, without competing for valuable land. Opponents argue, however, that turbines negatively impact the skyline (visual pollution) or result in disruptive noise. Floating turbines address these concerns by allowing wind farms to be pushed farther offshore and out of sight.
3. Finally, there are also several manufacturing advantages to floating platforms, such as using less material in construction and reducing the need for specialty marine engineering expertise. One major cost driver for conventional offshore wind are the heavy lift vessels required to erect the turbine. Very expensive special purpose ships are required to transport the parts on site and perform the assembly. Floating turbine platforms, however, are designed to be assembled in port and towed into position using simple barges or tugboats. This can result in major cost savings and greatly increased flexibility in construction.

So, it’s extra good news that Kishorn will be building at forefront on the technology. 15km off-shore will surely even please ‘The Donald’.

http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2012/ph240/pratt1/

http://www.offshorewind.biz/2017/04/21/kincardine-offshore-puts-kishorn-dry-dock-to-use/

© mmra.org

I’m the self-appointed ‘defence expert’. Though I’m a bit of an amateur in this field, I feel sure of the above prediction. You might be thinking ‘Why on earth would we be going to war to defend Vietnam anyway?’ Well, see this from the Ministry of Defence and The Rt Hon Mike Penning MP on 21^st April:

‘UK maritime forces visit Vietnam with French naval task group. UK maritime forces have reaffirmed the UK’s Defence ties with Vietnam during a visit. Around 60 Royal Navy and Royal Marines are currently taking part in a five-month French naval deployment to the Indian Ocean and Far East, aboard French assault ship FS Mistral.’

You might remember that Vietnam has already, on its own, defeated the French twice, the Japanese and the USA so these 60 Marines must be some guys. Reading carefully, it’s clear that this is part of the US agenda to encircle China. The strategy was deeply risky before but now, with Trump as president, it’s getting very scary. The Chinese armed forces are estimated to be around 1.6 million strong. Vietnam, like China, is still a Communist regime.

This positively Pythonesque (Monty) jaunt is the kind of thing that reminds me of the post-imperial vanities and delusions that survive in Westminster and why, most of all, I want Scotland out of this utterly dysfunctional union.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-maritime-forces-visit-vietnam-with-french-naval-task-group

© Liam Fox

From Liam Fox MP on 21 April 2017:

 ‘Dr Fox: English goods are ‘in demand’ across the world. As Saint George’s Day approaches this weekend, International Trade Secretary Liam Fox has celebrated the international demand for quintessential English food and drink around the world…. From strawberries and cream to cheddar cheese and gin, typically English products are proving popular internationally.’

As it goes on, the report written I know by London-based admin staff but approved by Liam, we see the definitive sign of Englishness – the conflation of it and Britishness. There is, of course, his new pride in St George, too. He is, of course, MP for North Somerset (Cheddar!) so I doubt he’s ever coming back to Scotland. Hip hip……

You might remember reading:

‘Record year for food and drink exports’

In this, I report that the total Scottish food and drinks exports figure for 2016 was £1.5 billion with around 25% of all UK food and drinks exports being Scotch. Liam’s team come up with

Strawberries               £900 thousand

Cheddar Cheese          £229 million

UK Gin                         £474 thousand

Leaving aside the fact that most UK Gin is now produced in Scotland and a little suspicion that the strawberries might not all be English, all they can manage is around £230 million compared to the Scottish £1.5 billion.

Dr Liam is quoted as saying:

‘As we celebrate St George’s day, it’s clear that many other countries around the world will also be enjoying delicious and typically English food and drink.’

Do the English even celebrate St George’s Day? Maybe converts are more into it?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/dr-fox-english-goods-are-in-demand-accross-the-world

© visitnorway.com  I missed this yougov poll at the time, in 2014, stumbled across it again today and thought you might be interested in it. Even then, SNP supporters were identifying more strongly with Norway than with the rest of Britain. After another three years of Tory austerity, I suspect that the identification with Norway rather than Britain might be stronger. To be precise, they were saying:

‘Scotland is more similar to Norway than it is to anywhere else in Europe – including the rest of the UK.’

30% of SNP supporters agreed with the above while only 3% of Tory supporters and 9% of Labour supporters agreed. It’s interesting that any did, don’t you think? Here’s a graph giving the full detail:

The survey didn’t really explore why so many SNP supporters might think this. My guess is that it had more to do with a shared approval of greater equality, collectivism and care for the weak than with Norwegians’ earlier fondness for rape, pillage and plunder. When you think of it, 1^st Millennium Norwegian or Viking preferences for the latter behaviour might make them a better match for some of the London financiers, corporate executives, Tory MPs and, of course, some English football fans. Actually, many of the other countries listed are also less unequal and more collectivist than the UK so the overall figure for those not identifying with Britain may be revealing too – 80%?

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/30/were-more-norwegian-than-british-SNP-supporters/