Keep calm, the SNP will keep nearly all of their seats

© Daily Record

You have no doubt seen all the headlines predicting a Tory surge of up to 12 seats gained from the SNP based on recent polls showing SNP support falling to around 43 or 44% and Tory support climbing to between 28 and 30%. Fear not, it won’t be enough and it’s not as solid as it looks. The idea is that tactical voting by unionists will result in numerous Tory victories. This is unlikely for at least three reasons. According to Ipsos Mori Scotland, reported in the Scotsman yesterday:

  1. In 38 of the 56 constituencies won by the SNP in 2015, the nationalist vote is larger than that of the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats combined.
  2. Even in seats where it would be possible, it would require an ‘extraordinary feat of organisation’ to make it happen
  3. Tactical voters would have to know who the strongest unionist candidate is and this is not always clear.

The Scotsman piece based on Ipsos Mori Scotland, predicted the SNP to hold around 50 seats and concluded:

‘Tactical voting will have a “limited effect” in Scotland with only a handful of constituencies expected to change hands, experts have said. Analysts poured cold water on calls for voters to abandon their principles and vote for the strongest Unionist, non-Tory or anti-Brexit candidate, warning that only a handful of seats were close enough for tactical voting to have an impact.’

I’d add another two thoughts. The long-standing hostility between Tory, Labour and LibDem supporters will limit just how many are prepared to betray their social values and vote for the still often despised Tories. As we get closer to the day, leaflets popping through the doors will make clear just what else you are voting for if you vote Tory. Many will balk at this at return to their old loyalties.

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19 thoughts on “Keep calm, the SNP will keep nearly all of their seats

  1. Clydebuilt April 24, 2017 / 12:19 pm

    Good that you’ve tackled these polls John, to date no one else has.

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Marlene Halliday April 24, 2017 / 12:25 pm

    I had a wee go at my own projection for #GE2017 and came up with SNP 54, LB 3, Lab 1, Con1. Glad I’ve more or less agreed with you! Mine is very amateurish, no pollong expertise at all, but I do trust my ability to do arithmetic. http://paleblueplanet.net/?p=1998

    Liked by 1 person

    • Will Garvie April 25, 2017 / 7:55 am

      Still pretty much a SNP landslide 😃

      Like

    • John Howieson April 25, 2017 / 8:00 am

      I like “… no pollong expertise”! 🙂

      Like

  3. Kenny H April 24, 2017 / 5:50 pm

    Polls are often about selling Newspapers, using political bias as a tool and boosting Social Media Standing – If you want to grab attention you put out “SNP struggling messages” and it grabs attention and sells news papers. When the news as backfires as “Fake” they shrug it off.

    Like

  4. Angus Fernie April 25, 2017 / 6:29 am

    Scottish Borders it was hard work last time round with only 379 votes between them ,we need help to increase the vote for our very able and hard working MP Callum Kerr.

    Like

  5. remo fantini April 25, 2017 / 9:19 am

    do not be takeing by the lieing Cow R/Davidson or the lieing Cow T/May you will suffer for it

    Like

  6. Rycharde Perry April 25, 2017 / 9:42 am

    The Tories have an achilles heel in respect to GE2017 and Rurh. However I am sure you have all worked it out already !

    Like

  7. Stephen April 26, 2017 / 3:28 am

    If the Tories get more than 2 Candidates voted in, does the third one get government subsidies if its considered rape (fraud)?

    Like

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