Why this Tory ‘surge’ is not a surge for the Union

You’ve seen the two recent polls suggesting a wee fall for the SNP and some kind of surge for the Tories:

Survation Poll:

SNP 43.1%
Conservatives 27.9%
Labour 17.8%
Liberal Democrats 8.8%

 

Panelbase Poll:

 SNP 44%
Conservatives 33%
Labour 13%
Liberal Democrats 5%

I’ve already written to explain why this will make little difference to the outcome in June. In most seats the SNP vote is larger than all the others put together. Tactical voting by the other three is almost impossible to organise even if you could persuade people who naturally despise Tory policies to abandon their principles and vote for them. Also, where will the Green vote go? For me, the SNP fall is a wee protest at lack of progress on getting independence. They’ll come back. As for the Tory ‘surge’, this is the high water mark for the Labour defection to them. Once they see the manifestos and have a good think, many of them will return to their left-of-centre principles and either abstain, vote Labour grudgingly or even decide this is the time to support the only party that can protect them, the SNP.

More important for me than the SNP vote is the Yes vote at the next referendum and the polls in the same period tell us it’s holding up even before the campaign starts.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Survation Poll:

Yes 46.9% (+0.1)
No 53.1% (-0.1)

Panelbase Poll:
Yes 45% (+1)
No 55% (-1)

So, maybe a wee bit of dissatisfaction with the SNP but support for Yes still hovering within striking distance of a win after campaigning gets going properly, after we see the Tories for what they really are, as the renewables boom grows and after the recovery of the oil and gas sector in the North Sea becomes more clear.

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