This is just a quick one from Bloomberg News yesterday. As OPEC confirms its desire to drain the global glut and demand from Asia climbs faster than supply we can be confident of even higher prices for North Sea oil. Up to £70 has been predicted by McKinsey.
https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/136941/oil-re-balance-60-70-per-barrel-mckinsey-says/
https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/139916/dollar-slides-oil-surges-market-wraps-turbulent-week/
(c) cleantechnica.com
There are 1400 rigs in the North Sea including those of all countries involved, not just Scotland. The decommissioning costs will run into nay billions. However, Siemens and the Dutch research institute have come up with a way of using them to solve the problem of renewable energy storage rather than spending those billions wastefully.
As you know, renewable sources are already capable of producing more energy than can be used on some days. That phenomenon will increase as more and more wind and tidal turbines are installed.
The solution, it seems, would be to connect the unused rigs to the renewable grid and transform the surplus electricity into hydrogen which can be stored. Presumably hydrogen storage is safer than in the days of the Hindenburg? Just how this conversion is done is not explained in the original Oil and Gas people report yesterday so I’ve had a wee look further afield.
You can do it yourself. I found this:
One of the easiest ways to obtain hydrogen is to get it from water, H2O. This method employs electrolysis, which breaks water into hydrogen and oxygen gas.
https://www.thoughtco.com/how-to-make-hydrogen-gas-608261
So, it’s pretty low-tech. You just apply your surplus electricity to water. The oxygen and the hydrogen bubble up separately (much more of the latter) and you capture the hydrogen in a container. I gather that, by itself with no oxygen, the hydrogen is not dangerous.
Sorted?
(c) americanscottishfoundation.com
Tourism is clearly good for the Scottish economy in more ways than you need me to describe. Two announcements from the Scottish Business News Network make for pleasant reading.
We had a 6% surge, 155 000 more visitors, adding £155 million to the income of Scottish businesses in 2016. Within that, the numbers coming from North America soared by 28%! The increased spend increase was even more than the 6% to 9% more than in 2015.
The overall UK figures were a measly 4% increase in visitors and 2% increase in income. Hah! Not nice I know. Maybe I should join the Tories? Tourism Secretary Fiona Hyslop said:
‘These figures underline Scotland’s appeal as a world-class tourism destination and are a credit to our tourism industry’s hard work to attract and welcome more than 2.7 million overseas visitors last year. We have seen a 28 per cent increase in the number of visits from North America and welcomed more than 1.6 million visitors from across Europe, highlighting the strength of our connections with the US and our neighbours on the continent. Our overseas visitors spent £1.85 billion in 2016, a 9% increase on the previous year and a welcome boost for our tourism and hospitality sectors and wider economy.’
Part of this North American surge has been put down to their feeling more secure here than in places where there have been recent terrorist attacks. Perhaps we can take a little credit for this? See:
‘In addition, Hussain and Miller (2004) argue that Muslims in Scotland are more likely to identify themselves as Scottish than Muslims in England are to identify as English (Hussain and Miller 2004, 2006). In their study, comparing experiences of Islamophobia and Anglophobia in Scotland, Hussain and Miller established that the Muslims interviewed found it very easy to identify with Scotland. They suggest this could be explained partly because their religious identity is seen as cultural and not territorial. This finding is supported by research conducted by Masud (2005) into the experiences of Muslims across Britain after the London bombings in 2005. In this research conducted across Scotland 27“it was widely acknowledged and appreciated that compared with other parts of the country, especially England, Scotland was a tolerant place” (Masud 2005).’
http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2011/03/08091838/4
https://sbnn.co.uk/2017/01/19/tourist-spend-soars-led-north-american-visitors/
© pressandjournal.co.uk
Reported in the Press & Journal yesrterday:
‘Conservative activist reported to police after comparing young SNP campaigners to the Hitler Youth’
Not just any old or young activist mind yo’s this was from Nancy Duncan of Mintlaw, the newly-elected vice chair of the Conservative Women’s Scottish Council an office bearer for the Banff and Buchan Conservative & Unionist Branch. These attitudes and choice of language is typical of those deep in the Tory establishment as much as in its’ fringe loonies. They’re the ‘Nasty Party’ through and through. Here’s what she tweeted:
‘It would be good to know exactly where in Peterhead the Hitler Youth are holding their rally.’
She also added images of swastikas and Hitler. One of her respondents added:
‘Just wait for the reports of an increase in burglaries and vandalism when that lot are up.’
This comes only days after an English Tory MP told a Scottish schoolgirl to ‘Fuck off back to Scotland’ and another tweeted that the Irish ‘could keep their gypsies and expect a hard border’ just because they didn’t vote for the British entry at Eurovision. Perhaps most disturbing were these reports suggesting evidence of a much wider malaise currently being ignored by Ruth Davidson:
Good News for Indyref2: More Tories mean more offensive comments
photo by Terry Cavner
I almost left this headline from Oil Industry News as it was but could not leave the ‘twilight years’ bit alone. What tosh!
You may have read in earlier posts of just one 8 billion-barrel discovery west of Shetland and I’ve lost track of how many posts I’ve made about the ‘Third Wave’ of prosperity hitting the Treasury coffers as I write. See for example:
‘North Sea oil output boost on horizon’ according to Reuters, only three months after we spotted it
Scottish oil prices certain to rise as global reserves are drained
Now according to US energy-focused investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., we hear, well-after we knew it, that things are on the up again. They’re predicting a rise of 400 000 barrels per day by 2020. Judging by my other reports based on news from elsewhere the demand from Asia will push that figure much higher. See:
Scottish oil in new and much increased demand from Asia ‘like never before!’
So far 40 billion barrels has been extracted from the North Sea, subsidising Westminster to the tune of around £100 billion or much more at today’s prices. There’s at least another 20 million barrels known to be there still to be extracted. Technological improvements will ease that though the discoveries west of Shetland will be extracted using familiar, relatively inexpensive methods well-known to the industry.
Source: www.businesstimes.com
https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/14236/oil-output-spike-brightens-north-seas-twilight-years/
© independent.co.uk
I’ll keep this short. The Tories plan to take away up to £300 in winter fuel payments from allegedly ‘wealthy’ pensioners. You can bet many of them didn’t know they were wealthy. Second, the value of their home will now be included in the means test for care in their own home so many more will have to pay for that care. Third, Theresa plans to scrap the ‘triple lock’ which guarantees the state pension keeps up with the cost of living.
Now I know this might not apply in Scotland but remind them again, only the SNP can prevent it. If the Tories return to greater influence in Scotland, they have more to lose than they might think. A weakened SNP government will be less able to maintain the universal benefits which Scotland’s elderly benefit from.
Unemployment in Scotland has fallen to 4.4%. The UK rate is 4.6% which, in itself, is a 40-year low. This means there are now 120 000 unemployed, down 48 000 in a year. The Scottish government release also lists these optimistic points:
Add these figures to some recent good news about business reported here and the Scottish economy is clearly growing more confidently than elsewhere in the UK. See these, in particular:
‘Good news all round’ for Scottish Manufacturing
Scottish businesses showing signs of greater health than those in the rest of the UK
Dramatic gains in Scottish export sector and 15% overall growth in business sector
‘Fewer Scottish businesses failing in 2017’
‘North Sea oil output boost on horizon’ according to Reuters, only three months after we spotted it
https://news.gov.scot/news/unemployment-falls-2
https://www.ft.com/content/8d9fdd00-6b85-3100-b158-adbe3d76c7ff
(c) royalyachtbritannia.co.uk
At the recent local election, the Tories made it clear that their manifesto was the single issue of no Indyref2. Strangely, if you think of it, they had no policies on roads, or policing or anything vaguely local. They did gain councillors but already we’re beginning to see the ‘rattiness’ of some of these. See:
Good News for Indyref2: More Tories mean more offensive comments
Some of these have already damaged the Tory image and there is still time for more before June 8th. Watch this space.
I’ve written before about the lack of belief amongst the political betting pundits in the kind of surge, 12 extra seats, Professor Curtice predicts. The website Political Betting gives them Borders (2015 majority only 328) and maybe, maybe, maybe, East Renfrewshire but they wouldn’t put money on the latter. See:
Scottish Tories very unlikely to gain more than two extra seats according to real experts
See even this more Tory-friendly guess from the most recent commentary at Political Betting.com:
‘Beyond this the sheer scale of the SNP tsunami in 2015 daunts. What should have been marginal seats have huge majorities. In Perth and North Perthshire, for example, the Tories are odds on with Ladbrokes but Pete Wishart sits on a majority of 9,641. This seems an extremely unattractive bet for me at those odds. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine looks very good for the Tories but 1/7? East Renfrewshire requires the Tories to come from a fairly distant third but again they are odds on. It demonstrates another problem in Scotland with the Unionist vote split between the competing parties. My expectation is that in several cases, notably in Edinburgh, this will result in the SNP coming through the middle and holding on. Bet365 has the SNP at 5/6 for more than 46.5 seats. Much though it pains me that looks a buy to me. My guess is that the Tories will get 6 plus some close seconds, Labour maybe 2 (Edinburgh South and East Lothian being the most likely) and the Lib Dems 3 leaving the SNP on 48.’
See also the last ICM poll:
Scottish Tory surge more a wee ripple according to the Sun on Sunday /ICM Poll
The Tories are currently talking up their chances of unseating Angus Robertson who took more than 50% of the vote in 2015 and has a majority of 9 065 – aye right. In all the other seats the SNP has majorities of 6 000 or more.
I stand by my previous position. The Tories get 2 or maybe 3, Labour get none and the liar democratic in Orkney goes down.
Talking-up Scotland 