Institute for Fiscal Studies reveals Scotland to have become more affluent than every other part of the UK bar the South-East of England and that much (most?) of this improvement has come under the SNP

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies has just released a report which shows that Scotland is second only to South-East England, out of eleven regions surveyed, in terms of median income.

Figure 3.9 from the report shows the current level of inequality between the UK regions and countries, after housing costs are taken into account. You can see the dramatic effect housing costs have in incomes in Scotland, the South-East and London giving Scotland the second-highest median income in the UK.

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Figure 3.10 below shows how Scotland has caught up and surpassed most of England since the 1970s. According to the report, most of this progress happened in the last two decades. We can safely assume that the greater autonomy in economic decision-making will have been the major factor in this post-devolution period. Though this cannot be proved based on the data presented, I suspect the greater competence and greater willingness of the SNP to divert from and to introduce more radical innovations than the UK government will have accelerated this in the last decade, under their rule.

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Regardless of any explanation, this is good news. I appreciate that these data tell us nothing about inequality within the regions and countries though the Scottish Government building twice as many affordable homes per capita than in England will have helped.

https://www.researchonline.org.uk/sds/search/download.do?ref=B48870

 

Early signs of the Third Wave of Scotland’s oil prosperity saves Orkney’s Flotta terminal

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© orkneyharbours.com

The growing demand from Asia, warnings of shortages and the now repeated predictions of significantly raised prices for crude between 2018 and 2020, of up to $100 per barrel, have clearly prevented the winding down of Orkney’s Flotta terminal and preserved 280 jobs. The terminal is now quoted in the Energy Voice article yesterday as likely to be in operation ‘for a long time to come’. That last phrase tells you they know what’s coming.

Just four years ago it was expected to be in the process of winding down by now but developments since then have changed all that and it is still handling 100 000 barrels per day.

A major factor had been the Canadian-owned Nexen company’s Eagle Field which has been supplying the terminal since 2014, but it seems likely that future prospects are based on the above three trends reported here:

Scottish oil in new and much increased demand from Asia ‘like never before!’

Independent Scotland’s oil wealth is assured as Aramco chief predicts huge shortages

Will Scotland’s oil hit $100 (or more?) a barrel again after 2020?

Soaring oil prices will surely play a part in Indyref2? In 2020?

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/147868/flotta-terminal-enjoying-renaissance-coming-back-brink/

Pioneering new North Sea renewables project for North of Scotland

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There are several massive projects underway to push Scotland toward 100% renewables energy supply by 2030. See for example:

Re-opened Scottish dock to build state-of-the-art floating windfarm to begin to exploit Scotland’s 25% share of all of Europe’s offshore wind potential

Four more major wind farms off east coast of Scotland

However, the first, smaller offshore windfarm, Statoil’s Hywind, 15 miles off Peterhead will be supplying power to the equivalent of 15 000 homes in October. Built essentially as a testbed for even larger floating windfarms, Hywind seems to have been a complete success and will be supplying Peterhead in around six weeks.

To maximise efficiency the wind turbines are huge, the height of Big Ben and with blades as big as typical airliner and have a motion controller enabling them to turn into the wind. Luckily they are well out of sight from any links course and so don’t spoil the view.

You’ll see from one of the above headlines that Scotland has around 25% of all of Europe’s wind potential. There have been days in the past when I might have moaned about that very fact as I struggled with an umbrella.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/147762/pioneering-renewables-project-will-keep-lights-peterhead/

Maersk Oil adds to optimism about North Sea oil’s future prospects

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From the Chief Executive Officer of Maersk, yesterday:

‘The North Sea will remain, very much, a focus of ours. Not just in the near term but also in the medium to longer term growth. We have a strong set of mature assets between Denmark and the UK. ‘

Maersk take production from the Maclure and Tulloch fields in the Scottish sector. These comments come days after confident forecasts from the IEA and BP. See:

International Energy Agency forecasts big increase in demand to give North Sea producers cause for optimism

‘I feel good about the North Sea’

So, independence by 2020 and still decades of oil revenue after that.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/147865/north-sea-much-part-maersk-oils-growth-plans/

As Scotland massively increases its number of breweries and distilleries, food and drink start-ups here have had a higher survival rate and have grown at a faster rate than in the rest of the UK

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© visitscotland.com

I know some people (non-drinkers) might not be thinking this is all a good thing but much of the product is for export and so is further enhancing our already strong trade surplus – the only UK region with one.

According to Insider:

  • The number of breweries in Scotland doubled in six years
  • There are 115 breweries and 190 distilleries –
  • The highest concentration is in Edinburgh and the Highlands
  • They were situated in 21 of Scotland’s 32 local authorities.
  • The breweries alone employed 950 people, a 64 per cent increase since 2011.

In addition, Insider pointed out:

‘Over the past seven years food and drink start-ups in Scotland have had a higher survival rate and have grown at a faster rate than in the rest of the UK, as well as contributing £1.2bn worth of exports to the Scottish economy in the first three months of 2017.’

http://www.insider.co.uk/news/number-breweries-scotland-double-six-11003137

£200 000 Scottish Government aid for games industry to maintain growth in multi-million earning industry

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The computer games sector currently employs 1 1000 people in Scotland and earns £93 million, up from £67.6 million in 2013 and quite a leap from the £38.1 million earned in 2010. There are now a 100 computer games firms in Scotland when there were only 15 as recently as 2010, a 600% increase. Of these, 95 are registered in Scotland. The SNP also funded 40 post-graduate games places on a course at Abertay University and lobbied for tax relief for the sector.

 http://www.develop-online.net/news/number-of-scottish-games-firms-grows-600-in-five-years/0216866

Now £200 000 has been awarded via Scottish Enterprise to simulation games developer and publishing company, Dovetail Games, taking their workforce from 30 to 50.

https://news.gov.scot/news/jobs-expansion-for-gaming-firm

Hopefully one of these new software products can turn into a massive earner like Grand Theft Auto. According to Develop, Grand Theft Auto V, produced in Scotland is the ‘fastest selling entertainment product of all time.’ Within three days of its release it had passed the figure of $1 billion dollars in sales. That’s just three days and one product. I can’t find out just how much of that goes toward Scottish GDP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V#Commercial_performance

‘Scotland enjoys tourism boost thanks to interest in Gaelic’

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I’ve already reported on the possible impact of Outlander on tourism at:

‘Outlander links see visitors to historic sites soaring’

According to Historic Environment Scotland:

‘The use of Gaelic in the hit TV series Outlander has sparked increased interest amongst visitors to Scotland and historic sites linked to the show are continuing to see significant rises in tourist numbers.’

I’m not sure how they have established that the use of Gaelic is increasing visits but nevertheless HES have produced a video series: ‘Gaelic for Outlanders’. Lesson one has had just over 5 000 views. It’s not really a lot in Youtube terms but let’s not be mean. You’ll find it at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MN9GP4xc5Kk

HES now propose raising the profile of Gaelic at many of their historic sites to further exploit the link with the series with more Gaelic signage and Gaelic-inscribed gifts.

http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/scotland-enjoys-tourism-boost-thanks-to-interest-in-gaelic-1-4532585

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Good News: Scottish minister knows more about fertility than Jeremy Kyle

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SNP’s Mark McDonald appeared on the Jeremy Kyle show to discuss the new baby boxes. Kyle seemed puzzled as to why there were condoms in the collection of fitted cotton sheets, a romper suit, a mattress and around 40 other baby essentials

Kyle ostentatiously waved one of the condoms with his usual supercilious grin on his face as if he had exposed something stupid in the SNP’s thinking. Here’s what McDonald wittily said:

‘Well, I’d have thought you’d done enough episodes of the Jeremy Kyle show by now Jeremy to understand how this process works. There is an issue about getting an understanding for parents about the fact that a woman is exceptionally fertile postpartum and ensuring that parents are taking the necessary precautions, and indeed the Finnish box contains condoms as well. We want to encourage and ensure that parents do not experience unexpected second pregnancy.’

Given Kyle’s predilection for snide comments about the Scots and the Welsh, it was good to see him suitably embarrassed.

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/video-jeremy-kyle-advised-safe-sex-scottish-minister/

 

Nope, still no recession, Fraser of Allander ‘Institute’: Scottish employment climbs to record high while unemployment and inactivity falls over the quarter.

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Professor Graeme Roy, director of the Fraser of Allander Institute looking a bit glum: Resign? Just pack it all in?

(c) heraldscotland.com

Over the quarter, Scotland’s employment rate climbed to 75.2%, a record high. Unemployment remained lower than the UK figure 0f 4.4%, at 3.9% and female unemployment continues to be among one of the lowest in Europe at 8.4%.

Now, what was that other thing? Oh, yes, the Scottish economy grew at four times the rate of the UK economy.

These coincide, meaningfully I think with other economic indicators, I’ve been reporting here such as:

Good news for the Scottish economy again! Big rise in permanent jobs and starting salaries climb in Scotland

Foreign investors seem more likely to create jobs in Scotland

‘Wave of new jobs hits the North Sea’

Scottish businesses showing signs of greater health than those in the rest of the UK

Things are getting better for most of us but probably not for our Unionist politicians, ‘academics’ and media who’d much rather we’d got that lovely recession they’d predicted earlier in the year – selfish bar stewards?

International Energy Agency forecasts big increase in demand to give North Sea producers cause for optimism

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The IEA has raised its forecast for 2017 to 1.5 million barrels per day from 1.4 million but more importantly, it anticipates an additional 1.4 million in 2018. This fits in with, perhaps underestimates earlier predictions of shortages and massive increases in demand from Asian countries:

Refiners begin scramble for crude oil supplies. Now who do we know with lots of that? Oh yes, we do.

Independent Scotland’s oil wealth is assured as Aramco chief predicts huge shortages

Producers should find encouragement from demand, which is growing year-on-year more strongly than first thought,”

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/11/reuters-america-update-2-iea-says-strong-oil-demand-growth-helping-market-rebalance.html