Talking-up Scotland

(c) Seamus Searson

Today, in the Scotsman, Stephen Emerson, claimed that:

‘Unions call for Scottish Government to abandon Education Bill’

and

‘The Bill would see sweeping reforms to the school system, including the introduction of a new Headteachers’ Charter, giving heads more power over the curriculum, recruitment and budgets. However, the move has been strongly opposed by teaching unions.’

but then bases his whole case on the forthcoming speech of one Union leader, of the Scottish Secondary Teachers’ Association (SSTA).

I guess he had hoped to offer a stronger critique of the Scottish Government policy, then was unable to find another union chief to support the SSTA view and, finally, forgot to delete the letter ‘s’, twice. I know journos are working faster these days with fewer resources and so have little time for proof-reading but people (a few) are paying for this.

So, was it bad grammar or faked evidence?

The SSTA chief is Seamus Searson, is a man who has only taught in London, who then worked as a union rep in England and in Northern Ireland, and has only been in Scotland since 2015, but seems, nevertheless, to feel has his finger on the pulse of the situation.

He claims the legislation is not welcomed by the majority of the population. I’d love to read the research report showing this but can’t seem to find it.

He also insists the Head Teachers’ charter is unwanted by ‘many head teachers’. What does ‘many’ mean? If it’s 100 that would be ‘many’, but would it be enough to worry about? Once more, I can’t find any published research on this.

Returning to grammar and basic literacy, what does his claim that the national qualification for head teachers should be ‘without the workload heavy, bureaucratic and administrative nonsense’.

I taught on an earlier head teacher qualification course, many years ago. Does Mr Searson think training can be of any real worth if it is not demanding? Just what on earth does he mean by ‘administrative nonsense’? Does he think that a post-graduate programme can be delivered without detailed and accurate record-keeping? Should we get Blue Peter to run the programme?

Only in the last paragraph, does the Scotsman give a taste of the information that the reader would need to form an intelligent opinion on the debate, with this from the Scottish Government:

‘The majority of respondents to the consultation support the principles behind our education reforms and, as the International Council of Education Advisers said last month, the direction of travel in Scottish education is impressive. They also welcomed the recent establishment of Regional Improvement Collaboratives.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/education/unions-call-for-scottish-government-to-abandon-education-bill-1-4741552

This is a very disappointing piece of work. I can only award an E grade and allow one more submission before withdrawal from the programme is required.

(c) Daily Telegraph 🙂

From the ONS yesterday:

‘Scotland is the only country to show improvements across any measures of personal well-being. Between the years ending December 2016 and 2017, improvements in worthwhile and happiness ratings in the UK were driven by Scotland, where average (mean) ratings also improved. Interestingly, average life satisfaction ratings also improved for Scotland; however, there were no significant changes for ratings of anxiety. No overall changes were reported for any measure of personal well-being in England, Wales or Northern Ireland.’

Looking back over the years 2011 to 2017, life satisfaction in Scotland rose steadily, year-on-year, from 7.51 to 7.72.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/measuringnationalwellbeing/januarytodecember2017#scotland-is-the-only-country-to-show-improvements-across-any-measures-of-personal-well-being

Now, of course, I’m not really claiming a direct causal relationship between SNP rule and a sense of well-being in Scots. Going by the Scotsman’s regular trolls, there are a number people really pissed-off with SNP rule. However, two important points are worth making.

First, if Scots had been shown to be less satisfied with life than others in the UK or if the trend had been downward, you can be sure the SNP would be getting the blame.

Second, there is clear evidence from research:

‘Happiness economics has shown that the degree to which people feel they are in control of their lives positively correlates with personal life satisfaction. In a parallel manner, economic freedom has been found to exert an independent impact on life satisfaction over and above the impact on per-capita income levels and other indicators of material well-being.’

Now this is from the Fraser Institute. No, not the ‘of Allander’ version much loved by Reporting Scotland and doom-sayers, across the country, but the Canadian one.

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/research/economic-freedom-individual-perceptions-life-control-and-life-satisfaction

Again, I know their research is about individual economic control and personal life satisfaction, but our sense of individual economic control does not exist in a vacuum and, rather, exists within the much wider context of local and national political decision-making. I haven’t done any research on this, but I know that my own sense of individual economic control is diminished by the behaviour of my local authority and enhanced by the recent actions of the government in Holyrood.

One the one hand, South Ayrshire Council has wasted public funds which I contributed to in council tax, on ripping up a protected cycle path which I hoped to use, because of the pressure from self-interested overweight Tory car drivers. I may be over-generalising there but I’ve met one or two of them.

On the other hand, free University tuition for my children, free prescriptions for me and my family and my bus pass, to name just three factors, have surely had a quite direct effect on my individual economic control.

Of course, there is still room for improvement in my level of personal life satisfaction. Redundancies at Reporting Scotland as viewing figures are revealed, the final collapse of the Scotsman, Herald and Daily Record and the utter destruction of the Scottish Tories after this final betrayal over Brexit, would cheer me up no end.

 

In Insider today:

‘Survey shows optimism remains high among Highlands and Islands businesses. More than half (53%) of Highlands and Islands businesses plan to take on new staff in the coming year, and most plan to recruit them from within the region, new research has revealed. Over 1,000 firms took part in the latest quarterly business panel survey carried out by Highlands and Islands Enterprise in February….The survey also found that four in five businesses in the Highlands and Islands are either very or fairly optimistic about their future prospects.’

https://sbnn.co.uk/2018/05/07/survey-shows-optimism-remains-high-among-highlands-and-islands-businesses/

See these from 2018, alone:

Scottish business confidence higher than in any other region of UK

Scottish businesses more likely to be stable than those in rest of UK: News from a parallel universe unknown to our mainstream media

Scottish business confidence soars above UK level as sales increase

Business growth in Scotland well ahead of UK average

Scottish business confidence soars to three and a half-year high

And another: Scottish business community ‘increasingly confident.’

And another one: ‘Scotland Revealed as Top Place in UK to Launch New Business’

17% increase in number of Scots planning to start a new business as Scottish economy strengthens

For a longer perspective, see:

Business booms in Scotland under SNP-rule

As I write these, I imagine the evidence in them being used to win arguments. I hope they do.

 

For more than a year now, oil industry insiders have been predicting a return to $100 per barrel. I’ve reported on three earlier predictions here:

Is a third forecast that Scotland’s oil will hit $100 per barrel again, a sure sign?

Second prediction that Scottish oil may rise beyond $70 per barrel to as much as $100 per barrel and that demand will grow over the next ten years.

A fourth prediction of the same arrived today from the Bank of America via CNN:

‘The bank’s analysts wrote Thursday that collapsing oil production in Venezuela and potential export disruptions in Iran could push the price of Brent crude as high as $100 per barrel in 2019….Another factor that’s helping to reduce supply is an agreement between OPEC and other major producers including Russia to slash output. The deal is set to expire at the end of 2018, but the Bank of America analysts said that OPEC and Russia are likely to continue working together to prevent prices from falling.  At the same time, the analysts said the global economy is growing at a healthy pace and supporting higher demand for oil. The extra demand is helping to wipe out an oil glut that has plagued markets.’

http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/10/investing/100-oil-iran-trump-bank-of-america/index.html

Try googling ‘BBC $100’ and find everything from Lance Armstrong’s $100m lawsuit to Rory McIlroy’s latest $100m sponsorship deal but no mention of oil. Prices. Given that these reports of $100 per barrel have all come from the kind of sources normally trusted by the BBC, such as oil industry CEO’s and finance companies, its taken some doing by business correspondents, such as BBC Scotland’s Douglas Fraser to miss them all. I don’t think he’s following me or it.

From Energy Voice today:

‘A new National Grid energy forecasting tool has predicted that Scotland will have the lowest grid intensity in the UK today. National Grid said yesterday that it has worked in partnership with WWF and Environmental Defense Fund Europe to progress this innovative software, based on open access API. The software can now give businesses and homes a 48-hour forecast on Scotland’s future carbon emissions intensity.’

The software will enable us to tell when it is the best time, in terms of when it is cleanest and most cost-efficient, to turn on our devices or to charge our cars. Sam Gardner, acting director of WWF Scotland, said:

‘With its amazing natural resources, Scotland is powering ahead when it comes to decarbonizing its grid. Now Scottish consumers can play an even bigger role in this energy transition by using this new tool to make the most of clean power when it’s most abundant, helping to reduce costs and cut carbon pollution. This capability will become ever more important as we continue the push to electrify our heating and our cars.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/171596/scotland-forecast-to-have-lowest-grid-intensity-in-uk-today/

(c) Nursery world

From gov.scot today:

‘Thousands of parents will no longer have to pay expensive upfront childcare deposits under a pilot scheme. Families who use either a childminder or nursery before their children become eligible for publicly-funded childcare, usually at age three, can be asked to pay a deposit of as much as £900. In Edinburgh, Glasgow and Dumfries and Galloway, the Scottish Government will cover that cost for eligible families until December 2019 through a deposit guarantee. Almost half (44%) of parents in the pilot areas with a child under two who are taking up childcare for the first time can benefit from the scheme.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/pilot-to-end-upfront-childcare-deposits

The list of humane policy development by this SNP administration is now extensive and marks us out as just a bit different from rUK. See:

More evidence of becoming a better nation as SNP ‘future-proof’ social security

SNP moves to finally put an end to foxes’agony being ripped apart by hounds as the English Tories plan a return to the unspeakable business. Different again?

8% of the UK population and 28% of living wage employers. More evidence that we are different enough to want to run the whole show?

Racial hate crimes increase by 33% in England & Wales while falling by 10% in Scotland: Who says we’re not different?

Scottish social housing more accessible and cheaper than in rest of UK

BBC Scotland’s shameless attempt to scare with claim that Scottish hospital has cladding ‘similar’ to that of Grenfell revealing ignorance of Scottish building regulations.

Of 35 children and teenagers killed with knives in Britain in 2017, not one was in Scotland, yet in 2005, the UN called Scotland the most violent country in the developed world.

Reported domestic violence in Scotland falls. Is this part of wider change?

Scotland has lower poverty rates than England: JRF Excerpt 1

Could Scotland end homelessness?

Scottish Government to fight alongside UN to defend disabled against Tory cuts.

Scottish care workers to receive Living Wage for ‘sleepover’ hours while English care workers receive only the National Minimum Wage.

Scots more likely to give to charities, to volunteer or to sponsor others

Scots the least respectful of the upper classes: More evidence of a difference that makes a difference?

In Scotland, 58 000 new mothers every year to get baby box worth £160 but Labour are not completely happy

Enough? If not, there are more on the blog if you just search for ‘different’.

 

From the ISD site today:

‘Hospital Standardised Mortality Ratios (HSMR) at Scotland level has decreased by 9.9% between January to March 2014 (first quarter after new baseline) and October to December 2017.’

https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Quality-Indicators/Publications/2018-05-15/2018-05-15-HSMR-Report.pdf?75555056334

This suggests real improvements in hospital care in the light of a background of persisting levels of crude mortality (above) which can be taken as evidence of pressure or demand on the system.

Hospital Standardised Mortality Ratios (HSMRs) in Scotland cannot be compared directly with those in England and Wales but evidence is emerging there of a system in crisis as excess deaths in hospital soar.

From the Daily Mail on 12^th May 2018:

‘The figures, from the Office for National Statistics, showed there were 20,215 more deaths in the first 16 weeks of 2018 compared to the previous five years – namely, 198,943 compared to an average of 178,778. Statisticians claimed in February that the killer winter flu outbreak was to blame for a 42 per cent spike in deaths across England and Wales. Professor Danny Dorling of the University of Oxford is calling for an investigation by the House of Commons into the worrying trend. The ONS report showed a similar trend in deaths was seen in all nine regions of England and Wales itself.’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5721383/Why-people-dying-Academics-baffled-20-000-extra-deaths-England-Wales.html

Though employment is 0.9% lower and unemployment is 0.1% higher in Scotland than in the UK as a whole, such comparisons are both meaningless in terms of statistical significance (gaps too wee) and because of the lack of similarity in the size and nature of the Scottish and UK economies. In particular, the UK, Great Britain or England figures are heavily distorted by the rates for the overheated economy of the South of England. More meaningful is comparison with parts of the UK such as the North of England or Yorkshire.

The above ONS table which is ‘seasonally adjusted, January to March 2018’ reveals that Scotland’s employment rate is actually better than in major population areas such as the North of England, Yorkshire and the West Midlands while our unemployment rate is better than in these same areas and London.

No doubt, for Reporting Scotland, the story will be:

‘Unemployment higher in Scotland than in the rest of the UK’

‘Employment lower in Scotland than in the rest of the UK’

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/may2018

‘No, this stuff stays locked away! We don’t want those Jocks getting ideas above their station.’

(c) New City College, Hackney

I’m always amazed when media executives fail to recognise that the level of public interest in an event is largely the consequence of the amount and type of attention they and their colleagues have chosen to give to it in the first place. For most people, reality is mostly constructed for them by the editorial decisions made in ‘mainstream’ media organisations. Where else would most get their perceptions of reality from except in the rare exceptions where the event has happened in their own town or to someone they know personally.

The recent reporting of knife and gun violence in Scotland is a clear example of how that can be inflated to promote the level of fear of such crime beyond that which the actual and falling level would justify. See these for more detail:

BBC News tries to spread knife crime crisis into Scotland to tell us: ‘You’re no different. Don’t get any ideas!’

BBC Scotland lie and distort to try again to spread violent crime crisis into Scotland despite it having only 3.5% of the gangs for 8% of the population, falling levels of violent crime and because of falling levels of fear of crime?

Today, Sarah Smith, High Heidyin for Scottish News at BBC Jockland, disingenuously or stupidly, wonders why Scots are not aflame with indignation at the UK Government’s plans to roll back devolution via their Brexit strategy. She writes:

‘What happens if Holyrood rejects the EU Withdrawal Bill? Her (Nicola Sturgeon) problem is that this argument has not caught voters’ attention. The right of the Scottish Parliament to have a definitive say over regulations governing the use of pesticides does not appear to cause great concern to Scots.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44123716

Notice her tendency to personalise a problem which all of Holyrood, other than the Tories, clearly share together, to one which is presented as only Nicola’s. It’s a reminder of the way, the Yes campaign’s disappointments were characterised, by BBC Scotland, as just Alex Salmond’s, in 2014.

However, more important, is her failure to recognise that the reason the argument has not caught voter’s attention is because of the extent of, and the way in which, it has been reported. Her sneaky use of the example of pesticide control is simply one of the strategies they have used – choose something boring or of apparently less importance as your example of the attack on devolution and, quelle surprise, there is, you claim, little interest in the wider issue.

Second, choose headlines which are designed to hide conflict and to prevent excited interest such as:

Holyrood set to reject Westminster Brexit powers bill – BBC News

Scotland Brexit: ‘Door still open’ for powers deal – BBC News

Scotland Brexit – BBC News

Brexit dance continues during Europe Day celebrations – BBC News

Leonard calls for cross-party talks to break Brexit deadlock – BBC News

MSPs debate consent to Brexit powers bill – BBC News

Here are alternative headlines from those supporters of devolution but opponents of independence, the Daily Record and the Guardian:

Westminster proposals aim to take away Scotland’s say on most …

Tories using Brexit to grab back devolved powers, say ministers …

Westminster is using Brexit to put devolution at risk. Scotland will not …

Had BBC Scotland blown some air into the damped-down fires of their many mature viewers and listeners, with headlines like these, might they have sparked a bit of interest?

Finally, deny the First minister the chance to give a full account of the situation. Even the Herald allowed, the at-times-good, Iain McWhirter, to present the case:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16191837.Sturgeon_is_all_that_stands_between_Scotland_and_May__39_s_power_grab/

Come-on Sarah, stop pretending to be asleep.

(c) Radisson BLU

From Insider today:

‘The cost of spending the night in an Edinburgh hotel during 2017 grew three times faster than the UK average, with Glasgow rates also outpacing the UK. According to the latest survey of hotel performance produced by accountants PwC, the average daily rate (ADR) in Edinburgh now tops £100. That represented a 12.4 per cent increase, with Glasgow rates up 5.2 per cent. That compares with average UK-wide ADR growth of 3.6 per cent in 2017.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/hotel-prices-edinburgh-glasgow-adr-12533910

This is, of course, just one economic indicator but along with many other reported here, it reveals an economy far healthier than that suggested by the unreliable and outdated GDP figures so loved by our media business editors in the BBC, STV and Scottish press.

For use in winning arguments see:

Robust Scottish Economy Indicator No. 47*: Demand for office space up 96%

Scottish business confidence higher than in any other region of UK

Scottish businesses more likely to be stable than those in rest of UK: News from a parallel universe unknown to our mainstream media

Hard evidence of a robust economy further undermines media doubts based on unreliable and meaningless GDP statistics

Scottish economy is thriving on innovation as patent filing runs at 4 times the UK rate

And more evidence of a strong economy: starting salaries in Scotland increase at quickest rate for more than 3 years

17% increase in number of Scots planning to start a new business as Scottish economy strengthens

Scotland’s economy continues to show signs of good health and growth

Reports of a strong Scottish economy just keep coming. Now debt decrees down 93% in the last three months

More evidence Scottish economy is strong: Demand for office space in Glasgow highest for ten years

Clear signs of a robust economy? 15% increase in Edinburgh office take-up in 2017 and Glasgow set for a ‘stellar 12 months.’

Scottish businesses continue to show signs of health with insolvencies down 23% as the Scottish economy holds strong

The Auditor General strongly, with no qualifications, commends the Scottish Government on its ‘sound’ management of the economy. The lowest under-spend since devolution.

With only 8% of the population, Scotland’s maritime sector accounts for 25% of the UK maritime sector’s (GVA) contribution to the economy and is 17.5% more productive than the UK marine oil and gas sector. Once more, too wee, too poor?

12% increase in the formation of social enterprises in Scotland over only 2 years leads to a £2 billion economic contribution to Scottish economy.

England runs massive trade deficit. Only Scotland has a viable sustainable economy, exporting more than she imports thus requiring no national debt

Enough?