Kermit, how do you know I’ve been listening to Emmylou Harris more than Miles Davis? The shirt gives it away?

Only very serious and respectful readers should continue! (c) heraldscotland.com

I should say at the outset that I’m having a bit of fun with this. I don’t really have the data to really prove that the answer to my headline is definitely ‘yes’, but things are happening which suggest it may not be so far off and whacky an idea as it might have been even a few years ago.

The Herald’s daily average paper sales fell 10% to only 28 900 in the second half of 2017 with the website getting around 88 400 visitors.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-39076470

There are perhaps around 100 other stories in the print edition and even the online version will have around 50. How many actually read the David Torrance piece? That photo must scare off thousands. How many just skim the headlines and pass him by? I don’t have the answer, but I’d guess it’s a lot less than the overall sales or visitors. According to research by Campaign, 8 out of 10 only read the headline.

https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/eight-ten-people-read-headline/1374722

Could David be getting only a few thousand readers? Five thousand? Does that seem harsh or generous?

Talking-up Scotland, on a good day, comes close to 10 000 visitors with the more controversial  reports getting around 4 to 5 000 actually opening the full text. On top of that, four or five bloggers will re-blog reports to an unknown number, some of whom may re-blog again, and so on. I’ve just heard (below) that one reblogs to another 5 000! In these cases, typically, 50% of my text can be seen without having to come to my blog for the full report. In addition, around 1 500 follow me on Twitter and Facebook and some of these people re-tweet or share the link to followers and friends, and so on. Many of these are, of course, in the first group of those who open the full text, but others will get the headline.

I know this is full of uncertainties but is my headline completely out of the question these days? Now, some readers may remember this from 2016:

Savaged by David Torrance is like being savaged by…..well, whatever, it was still a bit hurtful

and think I have a wee grudge. Well maybe I do but it’s just a wee one after watching the SNP broadcast allegedly spoofing him, twenty times.

Finally, I was a hipster back in the day when it was a real thing – full-beard, jazz collection, Kerouac novels and claiming to be an existentialist. Luckily all photographs have been lost or destroyed after Dylan told me ‘Ah but I was so much older then, I’m younger than that now’ and I got out from up my own arse.

(c) gegroup.com

This looks like very good news for the area around the Nigg Energy Park in the Cromarty Firth which has lost many jobs in the past. According to Energy Voice yesterday:

‘A jobs boom could see 300 jobs created at Nigg Energy Park in the Cromarty Firth if ambitious plans to diversify from the oil and gas industry to offshore renewables are given the green light. Global Energy aims to expand the oil fabrication yard to enable it to deal with massive 100-metre steel towers for windfarms.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/161279/hope-300-renewable-energy-jobs-boom-nigg-energy-park/

This looks like an extremely wise move as the demand for the more reliable, in terms of supply, offshore windfarms and tidal energy plants, grows in the wake of early successes such as the huge offshore windfarm off the Moray coast and the world’s largest tidal energy plant in the Pentland Firth. See, for more detail:

A monstrous offshore wind-farm is planned for the Moray coast, to power 750 000 homes and create 2 000 jobs. More evidence we need the Union to survive?

As world’s largest tidal energy plant in Pentland Firth generates 1GWh which is enough for 700 000 homes, will Scotland become the most energy-rich country in Europe?

This can be the beginning of much greater growth in employment in the renewables industries which I’m sure we all would welcome as an independent Scotland re-industrialises at the same time as it reduces its carbon footprint. See this for more on that potential:

Scotland’s offshore wind electricity generation capacity could be five times greater by 2030

(c) thetimes.co.uk

According to Energy Voice on Friday, the Brent price for March sales is £69.37 after breaking through the $70 price on 12^th January. See:

Scottish oil crashes through $70 per barrel figure. Time to reap this fortune and to remind BBC Scotland News?

This comes as predictions are repeated that prices will rise further as demand soars in Asia and US stockpiles fall faster than expected. See:

Second prediction that Scottish oil may rise beyond $70 per barrel to as much as $100 per barrel and that demand will grow over the next ten years.

https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/161386/oil-hovers-near-3-year-high-u-s-stockpiles-forecast-drop/

I’m not seeing much sign of this story outside of the specialist industry outlets. Surely, the Scottish mainstream media have a duty to keep their audience up to date. It’s looking like the familiar strategy of bias by omission so its up to us on social media to keep sharing and wearing down the case against independence.

Remember it only costs $12 to $15 per barrel to raise the oil so the profit margins are now immense and ripe for taxation.

So, what’s wrong with this? I’ll try to keep it short and to the point:

1. There is no hard, objective, evidence of a ‘crisis’ in NHS Scotland, as a whole, though there has been a temporary problem caused by overload in (only) Scotland’s A&E departments.
2. The ‘evidence’ of a crisis offered by 38 Degrees comes entirely from newspaper sources. 7 of the 9 sources used come from 4 outlets with a clear anti-Independence and anti-SNP agenda – Scotsman, Telegraph, Record, BBC.
3. There is little use of sources from less-partisan newspapers such as the Guardian or independent. The one Independent article actually makes the case for the robust and communitarian nature of NHS Scotland and its ability to pull together to deal with additional temporary pressure. The final Telegraph article is entirely about NHS England and has no relevance to the case being made.
4. More importantly, there is no use of reliable, rigorous, research-based evidence at all, despite the fact that examples such as those from the Nuffield Trust and Audit Scotland are there to confirm the overall success of and crisis-prevention mechanisms in place in, NHS Scotland. See these, 38 Degrees: Research Report, July 2017, Learning from Scotland’s NHS at: https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/files/2017-07/learning-from-scotland-s-nhs-final.pdf and http://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/uploads/docs/report/2017/nr_171026_nhs_overview.pdf
5. Even if they found the above a bit long difficult to read, they might have used this from the BBC website: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-42648951?SThisFB

So, to use their own words, that’s just not good enough 38 Degrees. I can’t tell for certain whether you’ve been taken in by someone from the Unionist groups and have naïvely wandered into their camp or whether 38 Degrees does actually hold an explicit anti-independence position and is prepared to let it bias its campaigns. Your Scottish supporters have a right to know.

Footnote: Several comments below add fuel to the idea that 38 degrees may have been infested with Scottish Labour ideas for campaigns.

(c) offshorewind.biz

A report by Aurora Energy Research, in Insider, for the whole of the UK suggests:

‘Offshore wind capacity could increase five-fold by the 2030s, cutting carbon emissions and saving on consumer bills, analysis suggests. The step change in the amount of wind turbines in the seas around Britain’s coasts could be achieved with contracts that by 2025 are effectively zero-subsidy.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/offshore-wind-projects-2018-predictions-11868267

We already know that subsidy costs for renewables generally are falling fast and below those of other forms of generation and presumably heading toward what they mysteriously refer to as ‘effectively zero-subsidy’. See:

Subsidy costs for Scottish off-shore wind and tidal energy farms likely to fall below those needed for new nuclear plants making the latter an even more stupid choice

We also know that 25% of the offshore wind available lies (blows?) in Scottish waters so it seems likely that around a quarter of that overall five-fold increase would be there. See:

Re-opened Scottish dock to build state-of-the-art floating windfarm to begin to exploit Scotland’s 25% share of all of Europe’s offshore wind potential

However, in the light of other knowledge, I’m not clear if Scotland would actually need a five-fold increase given that we are already exporting energy and that we are close to 100% sustainability in the next three years unless, of course, we plan a humungous level of energy exporting to rUK and Europe. Our current overall demand is less than 17GWh

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/01/3414/6

Current supply (September 2017) is 9.7GWh and is projected to reach 21.3GWh before 2020 (see graph above). This suggests oversupply of at least 5GWh which can be exported. Though a relatively modest figure, it can be added to the overall energy exports from Scotland. 73% of all primary energy worth £16 billion is exported to rUK and beyond.

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0051/00514475.pdf

Remember ‘exports’ of energy to rUk are not included in Scotland’s already healthy, and unique in the UK, trade surplus figure.

So, a five-fold increase would be around 100GWh of which Scotland would only require around 17GWh? How much would 83GWh earn?

Though apparently accepting the meaningfulness of those useless GDP estimates, a survey of Scottish businesses carried out for the SCC gives cause for optimism in the year ahead. Here’s what they said without providing any detail:

‘The cause of such optimism? The Scottish Chambers of Commerce quarterly economic indicator. It is suggesting that the nation’s businesses are coping admirably in the face of much uncertainty (for uncertainty, read Brexit). Among the sectors providing much optimism are manufacturing, financial and business services.’

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/scottish-chambers-commerce-economic-indicator-11868404

In a linked report available in the full text at the url above, the optimistic headline is then swamped with a trail of ‘ah buts’ but still no sign of the positive indicators the two positives headline suggests they had gathered – strange?

Why haven’t they given us any numbers? Are they too good for us?

Once more, the BBC Scotland website presents good news without the usual sting in the tail from Murdo Fraser or Jackie Baillie. A presumably unsupervised young webmaster still to do the SNPBaaad staff development module produces a factual piece I can’t complain about, writing:

‘Holyrood is taking on responsibility for a raft of social security powers including disability living allowance. The Scottish government is to amend its social security legislation to give people the right to have someone with them during welfare assessments. A bill is currently under consideration at Holyrood to set up Scotland’s own devolved social security system.’

They even let Jeanne Freeman say that this was proof that Scotland will do things differently. That’s what I’ve been saying here for some time. See below.

Holyrood will be responsible for other social security powers including:

• Disability Living Allowance
• Personal Independence Payments
• Carer’s Allowances
• Discretionary Housing Payments
• Winter Fuel Payments

They even let her go on to say:

‘Under the current system, people who attend assessments aren’t able to have someone with them during the assessment. We have all been in situations where we could do with a helping hand from someone who knows us, or just a bit of moral support. This is proof that Scotland will do things differently and one of the first ways we can show people we mean exactly what we say.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42739130

Brilliant, I love it. As you know, I never miss an opportunity to remind you of earlier reports here saying something similar, so see:

In a year of terrible events, we can still feel that this wee country is getting better as it drifts away from the callous, post-imperial, values of Tory Britain

Ah, too late, here comes Murdo or Ruth:

‘SNP allow alleged benefit fraudsters to advise the disabled on how to cheat.’

(c) Daily Record

From gov.scot yesterday and perhaps linked to my previous piece on record investment in Scottish hotels last year and under the headline:

‘20% more visitors from Europe choosing to come to Scotland.’

we read:

‘The latest statistics show the number of overseas tourists coming to Scotland has increased by 15% in one year – driven by a substantial rise in European visitors. Figures released today by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) show 20% more visitors from Europe came here in the 12 months to September 2017 – a total of 1.8 million people – and spent £1.1 billion, 24% more than during the previous 12 months. For the UK as a whole, the increase in European visitors in this period was lower, at 6%, with expenditure up 1%.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/international-visitors-on-the-rise

This is very marked contrast between Scotland and the UK which requires explanation. While it is impossible to be certain, it seems likely that a combination of the quality of the attractions, the Outlander effect and a perceived sense of greater security away from the terrorism-afflicted capital cities will be behind much of this. The benefits of the weaker pound apply to the whole of the UK and cannot be responsible for this difference between Scotland and the rest. See these recent reports for more:

Scotland wins two Rough Guide Readers’ Awards – Favourite destination and most welcoming country.

‘Outlander links see visitors to historic sites soaring’

‘BLOODY HELL Robert the Bruce movie Outlaw King will feature some of the bloodiest battle scenes in cinema history’, put Braveheart in the shade and boost tourism like Outlander.

North Americans lead surge in Scottish tourism because they feel safer here

I appreciate that the evidence of avoiding perceived terrorist threat is, so far, only from North American tourists.

(c) hoteldirect.co.uk

Reported in Insider yesterday, a survey by Savills revealed a massive £195 million investment in 2017. All of Scotland’s cities recorded increases with Edinburgh accounting for 64% of the total.

This makes Edinburgh the second largest ‘target city’ outside of London pushing Birmingham out of that position. Overseas investors accounted for £57.4 million of the total and, notably, invested seven times the 2016 figure. This is a major change.

Increases in tourism will be a factor in this – dramatic report coming.

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/scottish-hotel-investment-soars-60-11872924

This is one of several indicators of ‘real’ economic health in Scotland reported here in the last year. See:

Reports of a strong Scottish economy just keep coming. Now debt decrees down 93% in the last three months

More evidence Scottish economy is strong: Demand for office space in Glasgow highest for ten years

Business booms in Scotland under SNP-rule

77% of Scotland’s small and medium-sized businesses report success as Scottish Government reports record numbers exempt from rates and in the wake of figures revealing much greater signs of distress among rUK businesses.

Scottish businesses report much greater optimism about their futures for the third quarter in a row but the Fraser of Allander ‘Institute’ can’t help scratching their ‘buts’.

Scottish businesses continue to show signs of health with insolvencies down 23% as the Scottish economy holds strong

Ruth and Kezia sob as they hear Scotland is ranked as the best place in the UK to start a business. Will this good news never end?

Scottish businesses showing signs of greater health than those in the rest of the UK

Of course, our media prefer to report on GDP and GERS despite their demonstrable lack of value as measures. Both, in the Scottish case, are largely based on estimates which cannot be confirmed. GERS was, of course, initially developed as a political tool to undermine the case for Scottish independence while GDP is heavily criticised by academic economists as it tends to reflect mostly growth in profits for corporations and shareholders with little if any feeding into wages and consequent real economic growth for the benefit of the mass of the population. See this for more on GDP:

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2018/01/18/beware-gdp-it-can-be-seriously-misleading/

Unable to access the Herald or Times subscription-restricted sites and with YouGov not publishing its survey results yet, I rely on the Shropshire Times for this. I could have used the Scotsman, but I was feeling queasy at the time. Under the headline:

‘More than half of Scots support income tax rise, poll says’

we read that 54% supported the tax increases proposed by the Scottish Government, 27 % opposed it and 19% were ‘don’t knows’. Women were more supportive than men but there was no age-related difference. Now, if you ignore the ‘don’t knows’ which is what they deserve for not keeping up to date, 66.6% supported the tax changes which 70% won’t even pay.

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2018/01/18/more-than-half-of-scots-support-income-tax-rise-poll-says/#HpMdDlSbk56rXqRx.99

OK, feeling better, I had a week sneaky peek at the Scotsman report, only to find what I feared would be there – Murdo Fraser. He said:

‘It will stunt growth and hand an advantage to our competitors. That all means less cash for vital public services like schools, hospitals and roads.’

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-back-snp-s-tax-rise-plan-1-4664721

Murdo didn’t offer any evidence for his claim but then he doesn’t have to, in the Scotsman, or the Herald, or on the BBC, or on STV or…………

Is this another wee bit of evidence that we are different enough to want to be independent? Here are some earlier examples from dozens I’ve presented:

8% of the UK population and 28% of living wage employers. More evidence that we are different enough to want to run the whole show?

Scientific evidence that Scots tend to be different from the other groups in rUK?

In a year of terrible events, we can still feel that this wee country is getting better as it drifts away from the callous, post-imperial, values of Tory Britain

Search the blog for ‘different’ if you need more.