A report by Aurora Energy Research, in Insider, for the whole of the UK suggests:
‘Offshore wind capacity could increase five-fold by the 2030s, cutting carbon emissions and saving on consumer bills, analysis suggests. The step change in the amount of wind turbines in the seas around Britain’s coasts could be achieved with contracts that by 2025 are effectively zero-subsidy.’
We already know that subsidy costs for renewables generally are falling fast and below those of other forms of generation and presumably heading toward what they mysteriously refer to as ‘effectively zero-subsidy’. See:
We also know that 25% of the offshore wind available lies (blows?) in Scottish waters so it seems likely that around a quarter of that overall five-fold increase would be there. See:
However, in the light of other knowledge, I’m not clear if Scotland would actually need a five-fold increase given that we are already exporting energy and that we are close to 100% sustainability in the next three years unless, of course, we plan a humungous level of energy exporting to rUK and Europe. Our current overall demand is less than 17GWh
Current supply (September 2017) is 9.7GWh and is projected to reach 21.3GWh before 2020 (see graph above). This suggests oversupply of at least 5GWh which can be exported. Though a relatively modest figure, it can be added to the overall energy exports from Scotland. 73% of all primary energy worth £16 billion is exported to rUK and beyond.
Remember ‘exports’ of energy to rUk are not included in Scotland’s already healthy, and unique in the UK, trade surplus figure.
So, a five-fold increase would be around 100GWh of which Scotland would only require around 17GWh? How much would 83GWh earn?