An anonymous Freedom of Information request has revealed today that contrary to Cole-Hamilton’s predictions last April, fewer GPs and dentists are retiring early. See this:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/foi-19-00620/
So, neither really sick to the back teeth of their jobs?
SPF vice-chairman David Hamilton said yesterday, on the John Beattie radio programme:
‘Personally, I believe the repeal of the Offensive Behaviour Act has had an impact, because I think that some people feel wrongly legitimised to behave in a way that they wouldn’t otherwise behave.’
Readers will remember that the OBFA, introduced in January 2012, was repealed in April 2018 after a campaign led by Labour’s James Kelly and with the collusion of all the opposition parties, apparently desperate to ‘get one/anything over’ the SNP.
I’ve been careful with my headline. I know you can’t prove the repeal of the OBFA caused the upsurge in trouble at matches or the recent stabbing of a young Celtic fan in Glasgow but it will have contributed in quite a big way, given the publicity it received to changing the climate and making such behaviour, in its milder forms, seem less deviant and thus more probable. This in turn will have created an environment in which a greater frequency of low-level abuse will increase the risk of that triggering more serious reactions including physical violence.
There is little compelling empirical evidence for the success of the OBFA but that would be unlikely after such a short time in place. The increasing number of prosecutions (2017-18 not comparable due to repeal of Act) might reasonably be expected to have a gradual effect on reducing behaviour over time.
The International Council of Education Advisers (ICEA) have reported the key evidence on improvement. This was published on 19th March but attracted little attention, in sharp contrast with the enthusiastic coverage of evidence-free attacks by opposition parties at Holyrood.
Readers will appreciate that improvements to the attainment of children and young people in schools can only be partly achieved through changes within schools. A multitude of other factors such as poverty, home circumstances, drug abuse and social media use, may operate to limit what can be done in schools. Inequality in itself, has been shown to be a powerful factor, across the board in the quality of life. Current and recent Westminster austerity programmes can only have hampered this Scottish Government strategy. That this programme has produced objective measures of progress at all and in a very short timescale is to be commended.
The key areas for improvement were:
For reasons of space, this report focuses on the change within schools.
The Evidence of Change 2014/15 to 2016/17
This is by far the most demanding of the objectives, seriously constrained as it is by background factors such as poverty. Children are still, slightly more so, arriving in schools bringing problems for learning with them. That the gap between the most and least deprived is narrowing (bottom-right) must be testimony to the Scottish government’s measures to reduce the impact of Westminster austerity legislation over the past ten years.
As percentages, these seem quite small improvements but remember that they represent thousands of pupils (nearly 300 000 in secondaries alone) and that they have been achieved in challenging times beyond the school gates.
Again, there are some quite small percentage gains here and the performance of, I’m guessing mainly boys, those leaving at 16 remains a real problem. Of course, many in this group suffer from all of the social and economic constraints on their performance but experience, in addition, the powerful downward pressures on being seen to work hard at school, of a testosterone-fuelled macho culture which is all around them in their immediate environment and the wider culture of violent media and often brutally competitive sporting events.
On the bright side there is real evidence of a very significant improvement in the attainment of the most deprived, from 34.9% to 44.4%, leaving at 18 with one or more qualifications at Level 6 (SQA Highers) or better.
Reporting Scotland today at 1.30pm
‘The family of a young woman who took her own life in a young offenders’ institution has called for the Scottish Prison Service to be prosecuted. Her parents say 82 prisoners killed themselves in the last ten years and the rate of suicides is increasing.’
This is not news by any stretch of the imagination. Either the parents have contacted the media, or the media have contacted them. Nothing has actually happened to be reported as news. Using this single case of trauma to then supposedly lead into a wider crisis in the SPS, using utterly unreliable data and carefully attributing it to the parents, is scandalous churnalism.
Why did Reporting Scotland, a well-funded state broadcaster with a royal charter requiring it to inform and to avoid reliance on single sources (see below) unless they are particularly authoritative, not access easily available official statistics?
It took me ten minutes. Here are the official data
Official SPS Suicides Data
Year Suicides Determined
http://www.sps.gov.uk/Corporate/Information/PrisonerDeaths.aspx
There were 60 confirmed cases of suicide in Scottish prisons in the period 2009 to 2018. The rate is clearly NOT increasing. Indeed, you could say it has fallen since 2010.
BBC Guidelines:
3.4.1
We should try to witness events and gather information first hand. Where this is not possible, we should talk to first hand sources and, where necessary, corroborate their evidence. We should be reluctant to rely on a single source. If we do rely on a single source, a named on-the-record source is always preferable.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/editorialguidelines/guidelines/accuracy/gathering-material
I’ll put in a complaint, sigh.
On Reporting Scotland last night, from Jackie Bird:
‘A health watchdog has criticised NHS Tayside after breast cancer patients were given lower doses of chemotherapy than patients in other parts of Scotland. Healthcare improvement Scotland say patients should have been informed about the differences in their treatment.’
Based on one whistle-blower and ‘some’ unidentified staff sources.
We do hear that the consultant team made the decision to reduce the dosage because they thought it was in the best interests of their patients and then heard an NHS prof tell us dosage is personalised. Dosage is also a matter of ongoing debate among specialists.
Off course we don’t hear why the lower dose was prescribed for some – an act of kindness by specialists who know what they’re doing? See this:
‘Acute toxicities commonly include nausea, vomiting, hair loss, mucositis, diarrhoea, fatigue, and skin abnormalities. Severe organ toxicity is less frequent but may be life-threatening.’
http://theoncologist.alphamedpress.org/content/5/5/369.full
The Health board reported:
‘The oncologists made a decision based on this review to reduce the dose of chemotherapy with the sole aim of reducing some of the worst side effects. The expert panel has stated that the oncologists took the decision in the best interests of patients.’
https://www.nhstayside.scot.nhs.uk/News/Article/index.htm?article=PROD_317687
Crucially, we don’t hear what percentage of cases received the lower dose.
Then the reporter tells us:
‘The report today pointed to the possibility of a dysfunctional department. ‘Detectives’ spoke of pharmacy and nursing staff who said they had concerns about the change of procedures, but they felt they were not being listened to and that their position was one above.’
Detectives? Really? Inspectors? What is she dreaming of here?
Only Reporting Scotland use the word ‘dysfunctional’. The BBC website and all the papers I looked at (8) did not use the term either. Why?
Finally, excitedly, we’re told:
‘It is yet another blow to people’s confidence in this health board that has been under scrutiny for failings for quite a long time now.’
I’m reminded of a sharp-toothed predator which thinks it has spotted the weakest in the herd and is now going for it.
A search for these failings and causes of patient anxiety finds:
How fast do cancerous cells grow?
Less money for cancer treatment?
More money for cancer treatment?
Based on one unreliable whistle-blowing patient and probably not affecting breast cancer treatment.
One neurosurgeon probably not affecting breast cancer treatment.
After a series of deeply flawed reports on gangs, calves, obesity, police and fire department performance, pigeons and hospital infections, I think we can now confidently declare that our detectives have found Reporting Scotland to be dysfunctional.
Rich Chancellor, Head of State and Head of Army
Head of Air Force and Imperial Commissioner for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland Territories
Just in, a well-organised and armed group made up of members of the European Research Group, the DUP, the English Defence League and the Livingston True Blues flute Band has stormed the House of Commons, MI5 and the BBC HQ in London, declaring Britain a one-party state, renamed New England, with Princess Michael as Head of State and Jacob Rees-Mogg as Chancellor.
Led by Tommy Robinson and Billy Mitchell, the insurgents were briefly unnerved by the authority of the speaker who shouted ‘Order, order, siiiit down!!!’ but after Arlene Foster biffed him, ‘New order’ was imposed. No serious opposition was given at MI5 or BBC HQ’s.
Billy Bragg has told us ‘I wasn’t looking for that!’
Note: Ruth Davidson and Ross Thomson have not been included because TuS doesn’t consider them quite nasty enough for this.
Kilmarnock, new leaders of the Scottish Foremaist Division
In the wake of recent events, an internal coup within the SPFL has resulted in major restructuring. Led by the League’s Ethics and Identity spokeswoman, Flora MacDonald, the Strategy Committee has voted by a majority to the following changes:
Gina Davidson fails to disclose her close affinity with the Scottish Labour Branch but has left it in her Linkedn cv:
‘More recently I have worked in policy and PR for the Scottish Labour Party’s parliamentary group within the Scottish Parliament, which included speech writing for the party leaders.’
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/gina-davidson-7889b810
Surely, they don’t need speech-writers? Well, they’re certainly going to need a good speech writer now judging by the polls.
Davidson’s piece is just an uncritical platform for Scottish Labour to blame the SNP for something they and the Tories are responsible for, with the SNP position based on an unnamed source.
Is Davidson far too professional to be affected by her income stream from Scottish Labour?
These UK Government figures, released two days ago, reveal the massive and increasing level of transfer of electricity from Scotland to England. In 2018 only, the transfer rate increased from 13 512 GWh to nearly 25 000 GWh. 1 GWh would heat 700 000 homes! This 83% increase is hidden in the above 53.8% increase total adopted.
Note that the ratio of transfers from Scotland to England compared with those from England to Scotland is 25 to 1!
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/…/ET_5.6.xls
Thanks to @Tam__Jardine for alerting me to this.
BBC 1 has been in overdrive on this story as have the ‘newspapers.’ BBC Scotland has been quiet on it. You’ll remember how much the public really needed to know more about Scotland’s (fake) obesity crisis back in November 2018:
BBC Scotland once more hide SNP Government’s policy success to create scare on obesity in women
Don’t we have a diabetes crisis to inform the public about? Too much of a challenge to make one up?
Diabetes going into decline in Scotland?
There were 295 753 people diagnosed with diabetes in 2018.
That figure turns out to be the first fall recorded, from 298 504 in 2017, on record. See:
http://www.diabetesinscotland.org.uk/Publications/SDS%202017.pdf
Though the 2 751 decline is a small figure compared with the expected increase of around 7 000, they combine to make a c10 000 turnaround in the trend. The smaller increase in 2017 compared to 2016 may also suggest the beginning of the trend.
Diabetes and obesity together in decline in Scotland?
So, what could be causing this? As you know, obesity is a major factor in the increase of Type 2 Diabetes across the globe. Obesity is also increasing across the globe, but the rate of increase is flattening out in one country, Scotland, and government initiatives have been identified as key probable factors in this.
In their public anxiety drive on obesity in November 2018, BBC Scotland ignored two pieces of reliable research and rejected my complaint regarding their distortions.
Research from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, reported in the Independent on 26th May 2018 suggested:
‘Under current trends it is predicted that 11 per cent of the population in Wales will be morbidly obese in 2035, roughly 340,000 adults, while Scotland is likely to plateau at about 5 per cent and England will rise to about 8 per cent.’
The researchers offer a surprisingly clear, confident and simple explanation for the significantly slower growth in Scotland – Scottish Government policy initiatives and resource allocation:
‘The government put a massive push on developing a route map for how we can actually combat this. They put together resources from the NHS that were proving to be effective. They did put a lot of work into it.’
I appreciate that the trend graph relates to combined male and female obesity, but the table below shows that for other than two groups, the prevalence of obesity in Scottish women is expected to be significantly lower than that in England or Wales and notably much lower for the 15-24-year-olds most likely to have experienced, in schools and colleges, the ‘Scottish Government policy initiatives and resource allocation.’
Table: Predicted % prevalence of obesity
Published on the 26th November 2018 but ignored by the Nomedia, new research findings supported the London School findings:
From Growing Up in Scotland: Overweight and Obesity at Age 10:
‘Historic data from the survey shows that the prevalence of overweight [in Scotland] including obesity remained relatively stable between 1998 and 2016, fluctuating between 28% and 33%. However, in recent years levels of obesity have shown a steady decline dropping from 17% in 2014. This is largely due to a decline in obesity amongst boys which has dropped from 20% in 2012 to 12% in 2017 [40%].’(14)
‘The results are broadly comparable with similar UK research. For example, analysis of data from the Millennium Cohort Study showed that the proportion of healthy, overweight and obese 5-year olds becoming or remaining obese by age 11 were 6%, 32% and 68% respectively (Mead et al, 2016). Comparative figures from analysis of administrative data from the National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP)13 in England were 8%, 43% and 77% (Copley et al, 2017).’ (25)
So, compared to England, 25% fewer healthy 5-year-olds becoming obese by 11 in Scotland. Similarly, 25% fewer overweight 5-year-olds becoming obese and 12% fewer obese 5-year-olds remaining obese.
While the London School research directly attributes credit to Scottish Government policy initiatives, this merely associates them. See:
‘Food available in and around schools has also been a focus of policy aimed at improving children’s diets. Legislation requiring local authorities to ensure schools provide food and drink of an appropriate nutritional standard has been in place since 2007 with accompanying guidance’ (17)
‘Progress towards achieving the goal of a more active population has been made through a range of activities in recent years including the implementation of the National Walking Strategy (Scottish Government, 2014c), the Cycling Action Plan (Scottish Government, 2017b), the Active Schools programme, Community Sports Hubs and the Legacy 2014 Physical Activity Fund10. Of particular relevance for children and young people is the Scottish Government’s commitment to expanding the Daily Mile to ensure that Scotland becomes the first ‘Daily Mile nation’ with roll out to nurseries, schools, colleges, universities and workplaces. Recent research results suggest the Daily Mile is effective at increasing levels of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), reducing sedentary time, increasing physical fitness and improving body composition.’ (17/18)
https://www.gov.scot/publications/growing-up-scotland-overweight-obesity-age-10/
Do we need to help BBC Reporting Scotland, again:
‘SNP health initiatives threaten jobs at Diabetes UK’
