How Scottish Labour may have stimulated a tragic upsurge in football violence

kellyrepeal

SPF vice-chairman David Hamilton said yesterday, on the John Beattie radio programme:

‘Personally, I believe the repeal of the Offensive Behaviour Act has had an impact, because I think that some people feel wrongly legitimised to behave in a way that they wouldn’t otherwise behave.’

Readers will remember that the OBFA, introduced in January 2012, was repealed in April 2018 after a campaign led by Labour’s James Kelly and with the collusion of all the opposition parties, apparently desperate to ‘get one/anything over’ the SNP.

I’ve been careful with my headline. I know you can’t prove the repeal of the OBFA caused the upsurge in trouble at matches or the recent stabbing of a young Celtic fan in Glasgow but it will have contributed in quite a big way, given the publicity it received to changing the climate and making such behaviour, in its milder forms, seem less deviant and thus more probable. This in turn will have created an environment in which a greater frequency of low-level abuse will increase the risk of that triggering more serious reactions including physical violence.

There is little compelling empirical evidence for the success of the OBFA but that would be unlikely after such a short time in place. The increasing number of prosecutions (2017-18 not comparable due to repeal of Act) might reasonably be expected to have a gradual effect on reducing behaviour over time.

prosec

http://www.copfs.gov.uk/images/Documents/Statistics/Hate%20Crime%202017-18/Hate%20Crime%20in%20Scotland%202017-18.pdf

 

kellyrepeal

 

 

 

 

International Council Finds Improvements in Scotland’s Schools in only Two Years

 

The International Council of Education Advisers (ICEA) have reported the key evidence on improvement. This was published on 19th March but attracted little attention, in sharp contrast with the enthusiastic coverage of evidence-free attacks by opposition parties at Holyrood.

Readers will appreciate that improvements to the attainment of children and young people in schools can only be partly achieved through changes within schools. A multitude of other factors such as poverty, home circumstances, drug abuse and social media use, may operate to limit what can be done in schools. Inequality in itself, has been shown to be a powerful factor, across the board in the quality of life. Current and recent Westminster austerity programmes can only have hampered this Scottish Government strategy. That this programme has produced objective measures of progress at all and in a very short timescale is to be commended.

 

The key areas for improvement were:

prioitires

For reasons of space, this report focuses on the change within schools.

The Evidence of Change 2014/15 to 2016/17

earlyyears

This is by far the most demanding of the objectives, seriously constrained as it is by background factors such as poverty. Children are still, slightly more so, arriving in schools bringing problems for learning with them. That the gap between the most and least deprived is narrowing (bottom-right) must be testimony to the Scottish government’s measures to reduce the impact of Westminster austerity legislation over the past ten years.

broad1

broad2

As percentages, these seem quite small improvements but remember that they represent thousands of pupils (nearly 300 000 in secondaries alone) and that they have been achieved in challenging times beyond the school gates.

senior1

senior2

Again, there are some quite small percentage gains here and the performance of, I’m guessing mainly boys, those leaving at 16 remains a real problem. Of course, many in this group suffer from all of the social and economic constraints on their performance but experience, in addition, the powerful downward pressures on being seen to work hard at school, of a testosterone-fuelled macho culture which is all around them in their immediate environment and the wider culture of violent media and often brutally competitive sporting events.

On the bright side there is real evidence of a very significant improvement in the attainment of the most deprived, from 34.9% to 44.4%, leaving at 18 with one or more qualifications at Level 6 (SQA Highers) or better.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/sg.eas.learninganalysis#!/vizhome/NIFInteractiveEvidenceReport/FrontPage?:linktarget=_parent

 

Exploiting one tragic prison suicide to fake a crisis. Yes, it’s Reporting Scotland again.

suicidepresetner.png

Reporting Scotland today at 1.30pm

‘The family of a young woman who took her own life in a young offenders’ institution has called for the Scottish Prison Service to be prosecuted. Her parents say 82 prisoners killed themselves in the last ten years and the rate of suicides is increasing.’

This is not news by any stretch of the imagination. Either the parents have contacted the media, or the media have contacted them. Nothing has actually happened to be reported as news. Using this single case of trauma to then supposedly lead into a wider crisis in the SPS, using utterly unreliable data and carefully attributing it to the parents, is scandalous churnalism.

Why did Reporting Scotland, a well-funded state broadcaster with a royal charter requiring it to inform and to avoid reliance on single sources (see below) unless they are particularly authoritative, not access easily available official statistics?

It took me ten minutes. Here are the official data

Official SPS Suicides Data

Year                             Suicides Determined

  • 2009                            6
  • 2010                            10
  • 2011                            6
  • 2012                            8
  • 2013                            7
  • 2014                            6
  • 2015                            4
  • 2016                            9
  • 2017                            4
  • 2018                            All awaiting determination
  • 2019                            All awaiting determination

 

http://www.sps.gov.uk/Corporate/Information/PrisonerDeaths.aspx

There were 60 confirmed cases of suicide in Scottish prisons in the period 2009 to 2018. The rate is clearly NOT increasing. Indeed, you could say it has fallen since 2010.

BBC Guidelines:

3.4.1

We should try to witness events and gather information first hand.  Where this is not possible, we should talk to first hand sources and, where necessary, corroborate their evidence.  We should be reluctant to rely on a single source.  If we do rely on a single source, a named on-the-record source is always preferable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/editorialguidelines/guidelines/accuracy/gathering-material

I’ll put in a complaint, sigh.

 

Reporting Scotland ‘detectives’ think they’ve found a ‘dysfunctional department.’ They have.

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On Reporting Scotland last night, from Jackie Bird:

‘A health watchdog has criticised NHS Tayside after breast cancer patients were given lower doses of chemotherapy than patients in other parts of Scotland. Healthcare improvement Scotland say patients should have been informed about the differences in their treatment.’

Based on one whistle-blower and ‘some’ unidentified staff sources.

We do hear that the consultant team made the decision to reduce the dosage because they thought it was in the best interests of their patients and then heard an NHS prof tell us dosage is personalised. Dosage is also a matter of ongoing debate among specialists.

Off course we don’t hear why the lower dose was prescribed for some – an act of kindness by specialists who know what they’re doing? See this:

‘Acute toxicities commonly include nausea, vomiting, hair loss, mucositis, diarrhoea, fatigue, and skin abnormalities. Severe organ toxicity is less frequent but may be life-threatening.’

http://theoncologist.alphamedpress.org/content/5/5/369.full

The Health board reported:

‘The oncologists made a decision based on this review to reduce the dose of chemotherapy with the sole aim of reducing some of the worst side effects. The expert panel has stated that the oncologists took the decision in the best interests of patients.’

https://www.nhstayside.scot.nhs.uk/News/Article/index.htm?article=PROD_317687

Crucially, we don’t hear what percentage of cases received the lower dose.

thingy.png

Then the reporter tells us:

‘The report today pointed to the possibility of a dysfunctional department. ‘Detectives’ spoke of pharmacy and nursing staff who said they had concerns about the change of procedures, but they felt they were not being listened to and that their position was one above.’

Detectives? Really? Inspectors? What is she dreaming of here?

Only Reporting Scotland use the word ‘dysfunctional’. The BBC website and all the papers I looked at (8) did not use the term either. Why?

Finally, excitedly, we’re told:

‘It is yet another blow to people’s confidence in this health board that has been under scrutiny for failings for quite a long time now.’

I’m reminded of a sharp-toothed predator which thinks it has spotted the weakest in the herd and is now going for it.

A search for these failings and causes of patient anxiety finds:

ninwellsparking

How fast do cancerous cells grow?

taysoidepayment

Less money for cancer treatment?

NHSCharity

More money for cancer treatment?

bulying

Based on one unreliable whistle-blowing patient and probably not affecting breast cancer treatment.

bungled

One neurosurgeon probably not affecting breast cancer treatment.

After a series of deeply flawed reports on gangs, calves, obesity, police and fire department performance, pigeons and hospital infections, I think we can now confidently declare that our detectives have found Reporting Scotland to be dysfunctional.

BREXIT SHOCK: Rees-Mogg Putsch

hitler 0_jPuxabC0UC0UKZ68 unnamed

Rich Chancellor, Head of State and Head of Army

download General-Election-2017-declaration

Head of Air Force and Imperial Commissioner for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland Territories

Just in, a well-organised and armed group made up of members of the European Research Group, the DUP, the English Defence League and the Livingston True Blues flute Band has stormed the House of Commons, MI5 and the BBC HQ in London, declaring Britain a one-party state, renamed New England, with Princess Michael as Head of State and Jacob Rees-Mogg as Chancellor.

Led by Tommy Robinson and Billy Mitchell, the insurgents were briefly unnerved by the authority of the speaker who shouted ‘Order, order, siiiit down!!!’ but after Arlene Foster biffed him, ‘New order’ was imposed. No serious opposition was given at MI5 or BBC HQ’s.

Billy Bragg has told us ‘I wasn’t looking for that!’

Note: Ruth Davidson and Ross Thomson have not been included because TuS doesn’t consider them quite nasty enough for this.

hitler

FOOTBALL SHOCK: New Scottish Foremaist Division to be formed without Old Firm

Kilmarnock, new leaders of the Scottish Foremaist Division 

In the wake of recent events, an internal coup within the SPFL has resulted in major restructuring. Led by the League’s Ethics and Identity spokeswoman, Flora MacDonald, the Strategy Committee has voted by a majority to the following changes:

  1. The new league will be titled the Scottish Foremaist Division.
  2. Clubs removed due to fans’ repeated adoption of foreign flags – Celtic, Rangers.
  3. Clubs promoted: Falkirk, Dundee United, Ayr United, Partick Thistle.
  4. Celtic and Rangers fans to be awarded free season tickets for any one alternative club of their choice for one year.
  5. Celtic and Rangers fans to be awarded free scarves and other paraphernalia from any one alternative club of their choice.
  6. Partick Thistle to be renamed Glasgow Caledonian Partick Thistle.
  7. Michael Stewart to be appointed Chief Executive.
  8. Kris Boyd to be appointed Fitness Coach.
  9. Steven Thompson to be appointed Dress Coach.

 

 

Scottish Labour speech-writer pretends to be just a Scotsman journalist to blame SNP for Brexit

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Gina

Gina Davidson fails to disclose her close affinity with the Scottish Labour Branch but has left it in her Linkedn cv:

‘More recently I have worked in policy and PR for the Scottish Labour Party’s parliamentary group within the Scottish Parliament, which included speech writing for the party leaders.’

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/gina-davidson-7889b810

Surely, they don’t need speech-writers? Well, they’re certainly going to need a good speech writer now judging by the polls.

Davidson’s piece is just an uncritical platform for Scottish Labour to blame the SNP for something they and the Tories are responsible for, with the SNP position based on an unnamed source.

scotlabour1

labour2

Is Davidson far too professional to be affected by her income stream from Scottish Labour?

83% Increase in Electricity Transfers FROM Scotland TO England & Wales missed by our NoMedia

traNSFERS

These UK Government figures, released two days ago, reveal the massive and increasing level of transfer of electricity from Scotland to England. In 2018 only, the transfer rate increased from 13 512 GWh to nearly 25 000 GWh. 1 GWh would heat 700 000 homes! This 83% increase is hidden in the above 53.8% increase total adopted.

Note that the ratio of transfers from Scotland to England compared with those from England to Scotland is 25 to 1!

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/…/ET_5.6.xls

Thanks to @Tam__Jardine for alerting me to this.

 

As diabetes falls for the first time in Scotland why is BBC Scotland quiet?

expressdioabete

BBC 1 has been in overdrive on this story as have the ‘newspapers.’ BBC Scotland has been quiet on it. You’ll remember how much the public really needed to know more about Scotland’s (fake) obesity crisis back in November 2018:

BBC Scotland once more hide SNP Government’s policy success to create scare on obesity in women

Don’t we have a diabetes crisis to inform the public about? Too much of a challenge to make one up?

Diabetes going into decline in Scotland?

There were 295 753 people diagnosed with diabetes in 2018.

https://www.diabetes.org.uk/professionals/position-statements-reports/statistics/diabetes-prevalence-2018

That figure turns out to be the first fall recorded, from 298 504 in 2017, on record. See:

scotdiabprev

http://www.diabetesinscotland.org.uk/Publications/SDS%202017.pdf

Though the 2 751 decline is a small figure compared with the expected increase of around 7 000, they combine to make a c10 000 turnaround in the trend. The smaller increase in 2017 compared to 2016 may also suggest the beginning of the trend.

 

Diabetes and obesity together in decline in Scotland?

So, what could be causing this? As you know, obesity is a major factor in the increase of Type 2 Diabetes across the globe. Obesity is also increasing across the globe, but the rate of increase is flattening out in one country, Scotland, and government initiatives have been identified as key probable factors in this.

In their public anxiety drive on obesity in November 2018, BBC Scotland ignored two pieces of reliable research and rejected my complaint regarding their distortions.

Research from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, reported in the Independent on 26th May 2018 suggested:

 

‘Under current trends it is predicted that 11 per cent of the population in Wales will be morbidly obese in 2035, roughly 340,000 adults, while Scotland is likely to plateau at about 5 per cent and England will rise to about 8 per cent.’

obesitygraph (1)

The researchers offer a surprisingly clear, confident and simple explanation for the significantly slower growth in Scotland – Scottish Government policy initiatives and resource allocation:

‘The government put a massive push on developing a route map for how we can actually combat this. They put together resources from the NHS that were proving to be effective. They did put a lot of work into it.’

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/morbid-obesity-double-britain-poverty-education-employment-study-a8369731.html

I appreciate that the trend graph relates to combined male and female obesity, but the table below shows that for other than two groups, the prevalence of obesity in Scottish women is expected to be significantly lower than that in England or Wales and notably much lower for the 15-24-year-olds most likely to have experienced, in schools and colleges, the ‘Scottish Government policy initiatives and resource allocation.’

Table: Predicted % prevalence of obesity

obesitytable1

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/five-million-british-people-will-be-morbidly-obese-by-2035-study-shows-2/

Published on the 26th November 2018 but ignored by the Nomedia, new research findings supported the London School findings:

From Growing Up in Scotland: Overweight and Obesity at Age 10:

‘Historic data from the survey shows that the prevalence of overweight [in Scotland] including obesity remained relatively stable between 1998 and 2016, fluctuating between 28% and 33%. However, in recent years levels of obesity have shown a steady decline dropping from 17% in 2014. This is largely due to a decline in obesity amongst boys which has dropped from 20% in 2012 to 12% in 2017 [40%].’(14)

‘The results are broadly comparable with similar UK research. For example, analysis of data from the Millennium Cohort Study showed that the proportion of healthy, overweight and obese 5-year olds becoming or remaining obese by age 11 were 6%, 32% and 68% respectively (Mead et al, 2016). Comparative figures from analysis of administrative data from the National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP)13 in England were 8%, 43% and 77% (Copley et al, 2017).’ (25)

So, compared to England, 25% fewer healthy 5-year-olds becoming obese by 11 in Scotland. Similarly, 25% fewer overweight 5-year-olds becoming obese and 12% fewer obese 5-year-olds remaining obese.

While the London School research directly attributes credit to Scottish Government policy initiatives, this merely associates them. See:

‘Food available in and around schools has also been a focus of policy aimed at improving children’s diets. Legislation requiring local authorities to ensure schools provide food and drink of an appropriate nutritional standard has been in place since 2007 with accompanying guidance’ (17)

‘Progress towards achieving the goal of a more active population has been made through a range of activities in recent years including the implementation of the National Walking Strategy (Scottish Government, 2014c), the Cycling Action Plan (Scottish Government, 2017b), the Active Schools programme, Community Sports Hubs and the Legacy 2014 Physical Activity Fund10. Of particular relevance for children and young people is the Scottish Government’s commitment to expanding the Daily Mile to ensure that Scotland becomes the first ‘Daily Mile nation’ with roll out to nurseries, schools, colleges, universities and workplaces. Recent research results suggest the Daily Mile is effective at increasing levels of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), reducing sedentary time, increasing physical fitness and improving body composition.’ (17/18)

https://www.gov.scot/publications/growing-up-scotland-overweight-obesity-age-10/

Do we need to help BBC Reporting Scotland, again:

‘SNP health initiatives threaten jobs at Diabetes UK’

 

BBC Scotland’s go-to-guy on SNP anti-drugs strategy both wrong and corrupt

heralddrugscritic

Former Glasgow University professor Neil McKeganey has long been BBC Scotland’s favourite go-to-guy when they wanted somebody to try to undermine the Scottish Government’s ant-drugs strategy. One rogue academic against the evidence of many experts; that’ll will be ‘balance’, I guess.

Now we hear, in the Herald today, that his research unit has been funded by those champions of addiction, the tobacco companies. What might their motivation for funding him be? Might they be worried that the decriminalisation of cannabis will affect their profits?

We saw at the SNP conference in October 2016 support moves to decriminalise and regulate the use of Marijuana for medical use. Needless to say, the UK Home Office has denied permission. At the same time, we can see the first steps toward price-control for that most deadly of drugs in Scotland, Alcohol. So, that’s two enlightened pieces of policy-making the Scottish Government can take pride in. There’s now a third, ‘supervised injection sites’ (SIS). These are places supervised by nurses and guarded by the police where addicts can inject with clean needles in a safe environment. Here’s what Susan Millar, chairwoman of the Alcohol and Drugs Partnership in Glasgow told the BBC about the value of SIS:

‘We believe it will improve the health of the target population as well as benefit local communities and businesses that are currently adversely affected by public injecting. People injecting drugs in public spaces are experiencing high levels of harm and are impacting on the wider community. We need to make our communities safer for all people living in, and visiting the city, including those who publicly inject. Similar schemes operate in 10 other countries, including Australia, Germany, France, Holland and Switzerland. ADP argues that those who inject on the streets are responsible for the majority of discarded needles which pose a health risk and contribute to public order problems. It also says street users experience problems such as homelessness, mental health issues and poverty, and are at heightened risk of blood-borne viruses, overdose and drug-related death, as well as other injecting-related complications. The Scottish Drugs Forum (SDF), a drugs policy and information organisation, has estimated there about 90 similar injecting facilities operating around the world, most of them in Europe.’

The SIS programme at UCLA in the USA also points to major benefits:

‘While conventional services in the United States include HIV counseling, outreach, and educational programs, safe injection sites are able to provide a plethora of additional benefits that are overlooked by such programs. As seen in countries that adopted these sites early on, heroin addiction rates have plummeted. In areas like Amsterdam, according to Dutch health services, virtually no heroin addicts under the age of 40 exist as their programs have successfully limited the rise of new addicts.’

So that’s the SNP conference, all the Scottish medical professions, the Scottish police force and evidence from abroad.  When you read that, it’s kind of a no-brainer, I’d say, but wait, one man disagrees and BBC Scotland with their commitment to balance felt obliged to give him an extended opportunity to make his case for continuing with the ‘War on Drugs.’ Here’s what he said to the BBC:

‘Prof Neil McKeganey, founder of the Centre of Drug Misuse Research, said Mr Liddell [Scottish Drugs Forum] was “quite wrong” to imply the rooms were not controversial. “For anyone who’s not an advocate of drugs de-criminalisation they are controversial and they will be seen as such,” he told the BBC. “Some years ago, we surveyed over 1,000 drug addicts in Scotland and we asked them what they wanted to get from treatment. “Less than 5% said they wanted to help to inject more safely and the overwhelming majority said they wanted help to become drugs free. These facilities have a role to play but there is a real danger here we are moving steadily away from services to get addicts off drugs.’

Straight-off, I’m astonished that Professor McKegany imagines that if you ask drug addicts what they want the most that they would not tell you that they want to get off the drugs. I haven’t seen his methodology but were safe injection sites mentioned at all? Could their preferences have been due to interviewer effect? Furthermore, even if we accept that drug addicts want to get off drugs more than anything else how does that reduce in any way the great advantages of the SIS for them and for the rest of us? It kind of sounds like Professor McKeganey has an obsession with winning a war everyone else wants to stop fighting. Has he seen Narcos?

The BBC report seems to suggest this is contested ground with strong evidence-based arguments being made for and against the safe injection sites but I can’t find anyone else supporting Professor McKeganey’s views. I’ve no doubt there are plenty unqualified ‘moaning minnies’ out there who would rather cold turkey was the only treatment but are we really saying this is an issue where we have to hear both sides of an argument and where the entire medical professions, the local authorities and the police forces agree SIS is a good thing? Dare I suggest that they couldn’t just let the Scottish Government get a bit of credit for progressive policy-making in the face of UK conservatism, again? I know I’m paranoid. Everybody says I am so I must be.

Back to Professor McKeganey, for further consideration of the need for his balancing views, see this:

‘In 2012 Neil was awarded the Nils Bejerot Award for Global Drug Prevention by The World Federation Against Drugs (WFAD) in recognition of career in drug research and for his contributions to drug policy, in particular for his championing of drug free policies, much like Nils Bejerot did in Sweden. Nils Bejerot (September 21, 1921 – November 29, 1988) was a Swedish psychiatrist and criminologist best known for his work on drug abuse and for coining the phrase Stockholm syndrome. His view that drug abuse was a criminal matter and that drug use should have severe penalties was highly influential in Sweden and in other countries. He believed that the cure for drug addiction was to make drugs unavailable and socially unacceptable.’

Note that Bejerot was dead by 1988! Pablo Escobar was still in his one Flamingo-land then. Might he have changed his views after another nearly 30 years of the bloody war on drugs? I know that many chiefs of police have done so.

Also, Bejerot was not influential in his home country Sweden, on government actions on drug treatment. See this from the NY Times:

‘…he remained a controversial figure in Sweden because of his emphasis on prevention rather than treatment of drug addiction. Fifteen years ago he advocated banishing drug abusers to ”therapeutic villages” to prevent the spread of what he regarded as a contagion of epidemic proportions.‘Although successive national administrations had to deal with Sweden’s growing drug problem, colleagues noted that Dr. Bejerot had never been named to a Government-sponsored study group or other official post.’

Further The World Federation Against Drugs (WFAD) is problematic if being used as a source of expertise. Wikipedia, in 2012, began an investigation into their ‘notability’, the key criterion for inclusion in Wikipedia. Here’s what one of their assessors wrote:

‘I can’t find any indication of notability for this advocacy group. The only references I can find to them are from other advocacy groups (or advocacy groups claiming to be newspapers, like the one currently in the article). Unless there is evidence of the group being the subject of significant discussion in multiple independent sources, the article should be deleted.’ 

All of this is quite damning, I’d say, for the ideas of Bejerot, especially nearly 30 years after his death when so much has changed in thinking about drug abuse treatment and for the authenticity and value of WFAD. BBC Scotland has many research assistants, all graduates. They should be right on this kind of thing.