Here’s what the FT’s World Trade Editor said in January 2014:

‘Fuelled by banking, whisky and oil, an independent Scotland would export goods and services worth almost £100bn, putting it among the top 35 exporters in the world, according to new data that could bolster the economic case for independence. ‘

Since then, we’ve seen a massive boom in the Scottish food and drinks industry. See this and other topics on the same topic in my blog:

Food and Drink Special: Scotland’s exports surge and new SNP policies will maintain the growth.

Also, we can now see that the Scottish Gas and oil sector is on the verge of a major surge in production and sales. See this and other reports on the same topic in my blog:

Estimates of Scotland’s oil reserves West of Shetland now massively increased to around 8 billion barrels! ‘A super-resource now on the cards.’

Scottish oil in new and much increased demand from Asia ‘like never before!’

So, the FT’s 2014 estimate, higher than the 2015 figures being used below, requires a bit of adjustment upward I’d say and this 2015 graphic below, minus oil and gas revenue, which has been widely used is no longer much of an indication of the current situation or future prospects. It’s been used at times to argue that Scotland needs the single market with the UK more than it does trade with the EU or further afield. However, that the rUK would put up barriers to this trade given that it exports more to Scotland than we do in return is no more plausible than the idea that we would do the same.

https://www.ft.com/content/fff67a62-88fa-11e3-bb5f-00144feab7de

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication

This is a huge amount of oil. Hurricane have been increasing their estimates from 600 million to 2 billion and now to 8 billion in just one month. Essentially what has happended is that exploratory drilling has reveal that four already large fields, some parts as much as 35km apart, seem to be part of one massive column of oil.

Also it’s going to be relatively easy and efficent getting the oil out as the geology is familiar, fractured and the same across the area, so amenable to current techniques, with almost zero likelihood of getting water out rather than oil.

Here’s a quote from Energy Voice today:

‘In fact the industry is very, very interested and I must say that attitudes have changed dramatically with the results from Lincoln and results of the ‘four’ well. There appears to be general acceptance that there is a large oil column at Lancaster and there is oil beyond the Lancaster boundary. The potential of producing water is low to zero…..Add to all this stock market investor boards chit-chat speculating that Hurricane might even have discovered at least 8billion barrels with its four exploration successes … Lancaster and Halifax, Lincoln and Whirlwind … and we have exciting times on the UK Atlantic Frontier.’

Hurricane is quite a small company but this discovery is a game changer for thinking about West of Shetland.The article goes on to suggest that Hurricane may have embarrassed the markets in Aberdeen and London not to mention having an embrrassment of riches for themselves to exploit.

Once more, we need to make sure the taxes come to a new Scottish Treasury before it’s too late.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/137686/west-shetland-uk-super-resource-now-cards/

This just published on the Scotsman website:

‘Support for Scottish independence could be as high as 57 per cent according to a Google survey.’

It’s not clear exactly what the methodology used was. We only know it was online which tends to be more accurate as this catches the predominantly Yes-supporting young who are often under-represented on land-line telephone-based surveys. Also, we don’t know how big the sample was other than that it was in the thousands. Activity on Google can be in many thousands so we might have a very big sample indeed. The Scotsman article notes:
‘The user’s gender, age and geographic location are inferred based on anonymous browsing history and an IP address. Using this data, staff at Google Surveys say they are able to build a representative sample of thousands of respondents.’
The survey was carried out by Google in association with the Daily Record. Specifically it found 57% would back an independent Scotland within Europe if faced with the choice of going it alone or living under another Conservative government after Brexit. So, it wasn’t a general support for independence question but one constrained by the Tory government and Brexit factor.
Hopefully, we’ll find out more in the days to come but I can’t help be cautiously cheered by it.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/google-survey-suggests-backing-for-scottish-independence-at-57-1-4434336

 

 

At the moment the average consultation time with a GP in the UK is only 10 minutes and this can be far too short for many more complex cases. Now, based on new training for all practice staff, Scottish GPs will be freed from some administrative tasks they currently undertake and support staff will gain the extra skills needed to do this.

Administration time spent by GPs has been measured by the RCGP:

‘This increase in workload is due to both an increase in patients requiring appointments, particularly from patients experiencing multi-morbidities, but also due to the vast amounts of paperwork GPs are expected to complete. The Roland Commission reported that GPs currently spend 11% of time on administration tasks. if half of this work was completed by administrative staff, this would equate to 1,400 more full time GPs who would be available to provide continuity.’

In addition an important feature of the training will be that for practice nurses where their skills will be enhanced to allow them to deal with patients with multiple health conditions without the need to always consult GPs before making decisions.

Often critical of the Scottish Government in the past, the BMA have welcomed the news:

‘This is a welcome investment that will help towards the continuing development of practice staff. Practice managers, practice nurses, receptionists and health care assistants are all essential to the future of general practice.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/training-for-gp-practice-staff

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/07/gps-consultation-times-too-short-for-complex-cases-says-doctors-leader

http://www.rcgp.org.uk/-/media/Files/Policy/A-Z-policy/2016/Continuity-of-care-in-modern-day-general-practice1.ashx?la=en

© chinatechnews.com

I’ve written already about the flow of North Sea oil to Asia but the above numbers put it in clearer perspective. The OPEC production cuts triggered this demand but it can be sustained now that North Sea crude premiums have fallen due to technological improvements and other efficiencies including the sale of fields from corpulent corporations with massive overheads and lower efficiency to smaller leaner companies.

China is now the second biggest consumer of North Sea oil after the UK itself. There are other factors behind this too including falling domestic Chinese oil extraction due to their inability to cope with lower premiums and, of course, massive growth in car ownership and expanding demand from their refineries.

This might be getting a bit repetitive but I think it’s important to keep on reminding everyone that the North Sea has long way to go and can be adding extra value to independent Scotland’s GDP for decades. You know where the cash is flowing at the moment.

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/14096/opec-output-cuts-whet-asias-appetite-for-north-sea-oil/

Although the Sunday Times Panelbase poll result, last week, was at first sight disappointing, with Yes at 45% and No at 55%, there was a wee encouraging detail they didn’t mention at first. When they asked the question with three possible answers including ‘Independence within the EU’ and ‘Independence outside the EU’ as separate options they got 41% for the former and a further 10% for the latter giving a total of 51%.

What’s happening here? Well, of course, I can’t be certain but my guess is that some of the respondents responded No for independence because they don’t like the SNP enthusiasm for the EU but then responded Yes for independence outside the EU. When Referendum 2 comes around we have to hope it is a simple Yes or No for independence with the promise of consultation on EU membership after that or ideally with no mention of it at all given its divisive nature. Mind you, we can probably also expect some of those Europhobes to vote Yes for independence regardless once they’ve had a year of unconstrained Tory abuse and the Yes campaign gets underway properly.

So, really, it’s still neck-and-neck as in the other polls which is a brilliant place from which to start a campaign against a party of government that will have shown its full contempt for us in the Brexit deal it does at great expense for London’s financial sector, for Nissan, for Gibraltar and for Ireland. See this for more detail on these factors:

Good News: Theresa May is ready to risk losing Scotland to win concessions from the EU that really matter to England

Also, this poll excluded the Yes-dominant 16-18 year olds and the now likely to be Yes-supporting EU nationals seeking the right to stay that Theresa won’t give them. There were 100 000 of the former in 2014 so there will be an extra half million extra youngsters by 2018. I won’t speculate insensitively on how many No-dominant older folks will have passed away in the same period but this will be a factor. There are also around 400 000 EU nationals living in Scotland. Finally, the English-born Scots who helped in the No victory must be having second thoughts now as they watch NHS England collapse and Theresa fail to get anything worth having for the general public out of the Brexit negotiations. It can’t fail.

I can’t source the original Panelbase report and took the above data from the excellent scotgoespop:

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/tyrannical-theresa-takes-timely-tumble.html

If you want longer and deeper go there.

I know Professor Curtice and other pundits have been fondly imagining up to 12 gains for the Scottish Tories, based on recent polls. This is wishful thinking. I’ve already discussed and debunked this myself at:

Keep calm, the SNP will keep nearly all of their seats

 The experts I’m talking about are the people who put their money where their mouths are – bookies. The politicalbetting.com website is by no means against the Tories but they’re telling us very clearly to save our money for surer bets. They might put some money on the Tories taking the Borders but even there, they’re not recommending a big bet on it. Personally, I think a wee Lib Dem ‘surge’ might leave it unchanged. They also wonder about East Renfrewshire but with even less certainty that you should put money on it. Anything else would be quite a big surprise. Here’s an extract. I’ve highlighted key phrases which make clear their skepticism about major Tory gains in Scotland:

 ‘The Conservatives will in all probability hoover up in the Borders and they may take some other outside prospects but the odds now seem too short to me.  One possible exception is East Renfrewshire.  While they start with a relatively low vote share of 22% in 2015, they had tallied 30% in successive elections suggesting that Jim Murphy had got a lot of Conservatives to vote tactically for him.  He’s not standing this time and I expect the Conservatives to return home, bringing some friends with them.  In a very unionist seat, even 8/11 might be fair value.  I’m still not backing them, mind.’

I know readers of this, unless you’re Joey Barton, wouldn’t back the Tories anyway but if they gain more than two, I’ll eat something.

What I would bet on is the Lib Dems losing Orkney and Shetland. I don’t care about the odds. It would be worth it.

http://politicalbetting.com/

© lerwick-harbour.co.uk

With the arrival of larger vessels using the new jetty at Holmsgarth North, cruise passenger numbers are expected to rise by 225 to 62 000. With booming oil and gas activity west and east of Shetland, operators are increasing their use of the harbour to support new subsea oil and gas developments. I’ve already described this ‘Third Wave’ of wealth being generated by Scottish oil and the increased activity at Lerwick’s harbour is an obvious consequence.

North Sea oil and gas is on the crest of a ‘Third Wave’ and the SNP Government is already supporting plans for it

The LPA chief executive summed this up:

‘The cruise industry is set for another record year at Lerwick and the offshore projects season is expected to continue through to September.’

 You’ll find numerous other good news stories about Scotland at:

http://www.scoop.it/t/talking-up-scotland

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/137981/oil-ships-bolster-lerwick-harbour-fortunes/?utm_source=email

US oil major Chevron has 10 producing North Sea fields which helped it turn its 2016 deficit of £1.3 billion into pre-tax profits of £2.4 billion in only three months this year! This huge turnaround is due to the enormous demand for Scottish heavy grade oil in Asia which I’ve already described at:

Scottish oil in new and much increased demand from Asia ‘like never before!’

Chevron chief executive John Watson said:

‘First quarter earnings and cash flow improved significantly from a year ago. We benefitted from increasing crude oil prices and ongoing efficiencies being implemented across the company.’

In April alone, North Sea tankers have taken more than 16 million barrels to Asia. Once more the income will be flooding into the UK Treasury. Once more, we have the evidence that the North Sea has a long way to go and are reminded how important a massive SNP win in June is before a big Yes majority soon after.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/137951/chevron-rebounds-2-4bn-first-quarter-profit/?utm_source=email

© Aquamarine Power

I’ve already written about wave power and its great advantages in the massive growth of renewable energy production much of it stimulated by Scottish Government funding. I’ve explained the advantages of wave powered turbines here:

Orkney’s giant tidal turbine is the world’s most powerful

Yesterday, it was announced that two firms based in Inverness and one based in Edinburgh are to share with another in Kent, in £2.84 million to develop even more efficient turbines than the above-mentioned Orkney machine.

Scottish Government-funded development body Wave Energy Scotland (WES) announced

‘Our competitive technology development process aims to bring forward projects that will promote greater confidence in the technical performance of wave energy systems.’

Scottish Government investment in developing wave power now stands at over £24 million in the last two years and includes 56 different projects around Scotland’s massive and wild coastline which is ideally suited to wave power. The tsunami of good news about Scotland’s energy future is huge and seems never-ending.

 

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/137833/scottish-tidal-devices-get-wave-support/?utm_source=email