Latest poll: Backing for Scottish independence at 57%

This just published on the Scotsman website:

‘Support for Scottish independence could be as high as 57 per cent according to a Google survey.’

It’s not clear exactly what the methodology used was. We only know it was online which tends to be more accurate as this catches the predominantly Yes-supporting young who are often under-represented on land-line telephone-based surveys. Also, we don’t know how big the sample was other than that it was in the thousands. Activity on Google can be in many thousands so we might have a very big sample indeed. The Scotsman article notes:
‘The user’s gender, age and geographic location are inferred based on anonymous browsing history and an IP address. Using this data, staff at Google Surveys say they are able to build a representative sample of thousands of respondents.’
The survey was carried out by Google in association with the Daily Record. Specifically it found 57% would back an independent Scotland within Europe if faced with the choice of going it alone or living under another Conservative government after Brexit. So, it wasn’t a general support for independence question but one constrained by the Tory government and Brexit factor.
Hopefully, we’ll find out more in the days to come but I can’t help be cautiously cheered by it.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/google-survey-suggests-backing-for-scottish-independence-at-57-1-4434336

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8 thoughts on “Latest poll: Backing for Scottish independence at 57%

  1. macgilleleabhar May 1, 2017 / 6:39 pm

    Very interesting development. The question is very pragmatic as that’s the choice and the answer reflects my everyday experience.
    I tend to agree that by being on line the survey will tend to represent the views of the younger age groups but at the same time I am 69 and use the internet quite a lot.
    Makes me a wee bit optimist seeing this.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. johnrobertson834 May 1, 2017 / 7:27 pm

    Yes, it’s been attacked as self-selecting but as yet I don’t know if it really was in the sense that a poll on National or Sunday Herald readers would be. What were they trying to access via Google when it then demanded the answer to the indpendence question? If was people trying to buy Saltires, fair enough but if they were trying to by Sunglasses then…?

    Like

  3. johnrobertson834 May 1, 2017 / 7:31 pm

    ‘Google Surveys run thousands of surveys a day, across a network of online news, reference and entertainment sites where it’s embedded directly into content. On the web, users answer questions in exchange for access to that content. The user’s gender, age, and geographic location are inferred based on anonymous browsing history and IP address.

    ‘Entertainment’ sites so not really that self-selecting.

    Also fall in SNP support not a big deal if Yes vote holds up.

    Like

  4. Ghillie May 1, 2017 / 9:47 pm

    Thank you Prof Robertson!

    That poll has cheered me up too = )

    That younger voters were possibly being missed in the telephone polls did make me wonder.

    We ARE on our road to Independence = )

    Like

  5. Clydebuilt May 2, 2017 / 10:17 am

    Hope Nicola’s taking note …… Excitement is rising…

    Liked by 1 person

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