Although the Sunday Times Panelbase poll result, last week, was at first sight disappointing, with Yes at 45% and No at 55%, there was a wee encouraging detail they didn’t mention at first. When they asked the question with three possible answers including ‘Independence within the EU’ and ‘Independence outside the EU’ as separate options they got 41% for the former and a further 10% for the latter giving a total of 51%.
What’s happening here? Well, of course, I can’t be certain but my guess is that some of the respondents responded No for independence because they don’t like the SNP enthusiasm for the EU but then responded Yes for independence outside the EU. When Referendum 2 comes around we have to hope it is a simple Yes or No for independence with the promise of consultation on EU membership after that or ideally with no mention of it at all given its divisive nature. Mind you, we can probably also expect some of those Europhobes to vote Yes for independence regardless once they’ve had a year of unconstrained Tory abuse and the Yes campaign gets underway properly.
So, really, it’s still neck-and-neck as in the other polls which is a brilliant place from which to start a campaign against a party of government that will have shown its full contempt for us in the Brexit deal it does at great expense for London’s financial sector, for Nissan, for Gibraltar and for Ireland. See this for more detail on these factors:
Also, this poll excluded the Yes-dominant 16-18 year olds and the now likely to be Yes-supporting EU nationals seeking the right to stay that Theresa won’t give them. There were 100 000 of the former in 2014 so there will be an extra half million extra youngsters by 2018. I won’t speculate insensitively on how many No-dominant older folks will have passed away in the same period but this will be a factor. There are also around 400 000 EU nationals living in Scotland. Finally, the English-born Scots who helped in the No victory must be having second thoughts now as they watch NHS England collapse and Theresa fail to get anything worth having for the general public out of the Brexit negotiations. It can’t fail.
I can’t source the original Panelbase report and took the above data from the excellent scotgoespop:
If you want longer and deeper go there.