Talking-up Scotland

Before I go any further remember this is May 2017 and these are figures for last year.

According to Oil Industry News on Friday:

 ‘Scotland’s share of oil revenue plunged into the red for the first time on record, the SNP Government’s own figures revealed yesterday. Tax receipts fell to minus £338million over 2016 – partly reflecting the cost of tax relief in the industry. The dramatic decline contrasts with accounts in 2005-12 when offshore oil revenue never fell below £6billion a year.’

Readers will know, of course, that Scottish North Sea Oil revenue funded the Thatcherite governments’ ‘restructuring’ (de-industrialising) of the UK economy throughout the 80s and 90s. The total subsidy was around £100 billion in taxes so last year’s loss, the only one ever, is nothing much especially when we now know that a ‘Third Wave’ of prosperity has already begun with so-far unannounced millions (billions?) flooding into the UK Treasury in 2017. This has been based on the steep increase in demand from Asia especially from China for heavy-grade oil of the kind the North Sea specialises in. See this for evidence:

In April alone, North Sea tankers have taken more than 16 million barrels to Asia. Once more the income will be flooding into the UK Treasury.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/137607/north-sea-oil-flooding-asia-like-never-opec-cuts/

Also, according to Goldman Sachs, in Energy Voice, the market is ‘rebalancing rapidly’ and ‘demand will significantly exceed production’, according to the IEA’s Head of Oil Industry and Markets, Neil Atkinson. US stockpiles fell by the 5.2 million barrels in one week. So much for the risk to prices posed by shale. The global supply deficit is predicted to be as wide as 2 billion barrels per day by July.

https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/139045/oil-bulls-top-cuts-start-drain-stockpiles/?sso-c=MC41MzEzOTcwMCAxNDk0NTI5MDQ2

And, beyond 2017, the picture is very promising indeed with massive finds west of Shetland. Hurricane have been increasing their estimates from 600 million to 2 billion and now to 8 billion in just one month. Essentially what has happened is that exploratory drilling has reveal that four already large fields, some parts as much as 35km apart, seem to be part of one massive column of oil. Also, it’s going to be relatively easy and efficient getting the oil out as the geology is familiar, fractured and the same across the area, so amenable to current techniques, with almost zero likelihood of getting water out rather than oil.

Remember that was last year’s news. No doubt we’ll hear about 2017 oil revenues by May 2018.

http://openoil.net/2013/04/10/did-margaret-thatcher-blow-the-uks-oil-dividend/

Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen airports have all hit highest ever passenger numbers for April. Edinburgh was up 13% to 1 141 823, Glasgow was up 8.9% to 786 000 and Aberdeen was up 1.5% to 251 851. In Edinburgh, international passenger numbers were up an impressive 20.4% to 705 683. This reinforces optimism about tourism figures already reported in:

Visitors to Scotland’s historic sites surge by 470 000 to reach more than 4.5 million, breaking all records, in only 11 months!

 

Edinburgh’s chief executive, speaking to Capitalfm, said:

‘Our expansion of routes and destinations is good news for travellers, and it also creates new jobs, opportunities and offers greater international links for people in this city, and for all of Scotland.’

http://www.capitalfm.com/scotland/radio/news/local/passenger-numbers-reach-r/

(c) cia.org

Pretty much surrounded by water, Scotland and Taiwan have something in else common –  huge scope for offshore renewable energy production. See this from the Aberdeen Evening Express on 12^th December 2016:

‘Scotland’s “expertise in renewable energy” is in demand around the world, with businesses working in more than 40 countries, according to new research. Projects include advising the government of Japan, providing cranes to build wind farms in Morocco and South Africa and working with the World Bank in Chile, industry body Scottish Renewables said.’

Maybe someone in in Taiwan reads the Aberdeen Evening Express too because you can add Taiwan to that list. They had one of the largest delegations at the All Energy Conference in Glasgow and they hope to use Scottish expertise to accelerate the growth of their currently very small industry – two 4 MW windmills offshore. They’ve set a target of 500MW by 2020 and 3 GW by 2025.

I’m sure we can help…at a reasonable price!

https://www.energyvoice.com/events/all-energy-2012/138994/taiwan-comes-scotland-offshore-renewables-inspiration/

(c)THINKSTOCK

According to Goldman Sachs, in Energy Voice, the market is ‘rebalancing rapidly’ and ‘demand will significantly exceed production’, according to the IEA’s Head of Oil Industry and Markets, Neil Atkinson. US stockpiles fell by the 5.2 million barrels in one week. So much for the risk to prices posed by shale. The global supply deficit is predicted to be as wide as 2 billion barrels per day by July.

This is just more evidence along the same lines of several earlier pieces:

Why Scotland’s oil is going to be worth a fortune in the years to come

Scottish heavy grade North Sea oil generating more massive profits for corporations and the UK Treasury

 

Don’t let anyone tell you the North Sea is past its peak.

https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/139045/oil-bulls-top-cuts-start-drain-stockpiles/?sso-c=MC41MzEzOTcwMCAxNDk0NTI5MDQ2

(c)Scotrenewables

We’ve already had news of the world’s biggest tidal turbine array to be built in the Pentland Firth and the world’s biggest floating wind turbine array to be sited off the Kincardineshire coast, to be manufactured in Kishorn too. See:

‘The Biggest in the World!’ 270 tidal energy turbines to be installed to provide sustainable power to Scotland

A second ‘biggest in the world’ for Scotland’s renewable energy sector

 

Now Scotrenewables have announced a tidal industry record of18MWh over a continuous 24hrs which matches that of established offshore wind turbines for the first time. The turbine is based in the waters off Orkney and has extra-large blades increasing yield by 50%.

There seems to be no end to good news about Scotland’s renewable energy sector, all of which reinforces the prediction of 100% by 2030 made earlier.

Scotland’s energy 100% renewable by 2030?

 

https://www.energyvoice.com/events/all-energy-2012/139100/scotrenewables-hit-high-water-mark-new-tidal-industry-record/

Only 14 Scottish paediatricians bother to respond to a survey of child poverty’s effects on health. What does this mean?

 

The Royal College of Paediatrics and 2017 Child Health’s (RCPCH) State of Child Health report asked the question:

 

‘To what extent do you believe that low income/poverty contributes to ill health among

the children you work with?’

 

266 responses were received with the following results

Area                            Very much       Somewhat       Not at all or little

Midlands E                  29                    14                    2

North England             24                    7                      0

South England             30                    9                      6

Scotland                      8                      6                      0

N Ireland                     14                    12                    2

Wales                          22                    10                    2

London                        56                    12                    1

 

I don’t know how many paediatricians there are in the UK but Scotland has about one eleventh of the UK population so should have at least 22 responses rather than only 14. Both Wales and Northern Ireland have half the population and more than twice the responses in this survey thus distorting it. Given that this was a self-selecting sample you might quite reasonably deduce that Scottish paediatricians were less likely to respond because they actually see less of a problem yet the report concluded:

‘The highest levels of concern about poor housing and homelessness were in London and Scotland, where half of doctors responding to the survey believed that these affect children’s health ‘very much’. In contrast, in the North of England only a quarter of the respondents said this.’

 

This is both unreliable, given the self-selecting and very small sample and contradicts earlier published evidence from the same source in the same year.

‘Latest data: In 2015, the rate of children on a CPP or Child Protection Register was in the mid-40s per 10,000 across Wales, England and Northern Ireland. The rate in Scotland was considerably lower at 27 per 10,000. (88)

 Latest data: In 2014 the Infant Mortality Rate across the UK was 3.9 deaths per 1,000 live births: 3.9 in England and Wales, 3.6 in Scotland, and 4.8 in Northern Ireland. (15)

 Latest data: The mortality rate per 100,000 population for children aged one to nine years in 2013/2014 was 12.1 in the UK overall and 12.2 in England and Wales, 11.8 in Northern Ireland and 11.1 in Scotland. (20)

 http://www.rcpch.ac.uk/system/files/protected/page/SOCH-UK-2017.pdf

http://www.rcpch.ac.uk/sites/default/files/user45042/Poverty%20and%20child%20health%20survey%20-%20views%20from%20the%20frontline%20-%20FINAL%2008.05.2017.pdf

Though the official target is just over 50% by 2030 all the signs reported in previous pieces today suggest this is a modest target and that 100% renewables energy production in Scotland is feasible by 2030. See:

Scotland’s energy 100% renewable by 2030?

The Scottish Government is clearly right behind this trend and is to invest a further £43 million matched by another minimum £43 million from the private sector to projects such as:

‘an innovative local energy system on Fair Isle, an energy storage project in Shetland, low-carbon heat networks in Dundee, Stirling, Clydebank and Glenrothes and the installation of a heat pump on the River Clyde to serve the Gorbals area.’

https://news.gov.scot/news/gbp-43m-for-low-carbon-infrastructure-projects

I’ve already reported on the massive finds west of Shetland and the current fast growing demand for Asia for heavy-grade North Sea oil which has caused record flows of oil tankers in recent months. In April alone, North Sea tankers have taken more than 16 million barrels to Asia. Once more the income will be flooding into the UK Treasury. We need to move fast to keep some of this for Scotland’s future.

Estimates of Scotland’s oil reserves West of Shetland now massively increased to around 8 billion barrels! ‘A super-resource now on the cards.’

 

Scottish oil in new and much increased demand from Asia ‘like never before!’

 

Now Chinese-owned Nexen have plans to drill an exploration well west of Shetland in the coming weeks. Nexen, which is owned by China National Offshore Oil Corporation claims to have serious growth plans.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/138867/devex-2017-nexen-closing-craster-spud-west-shetland/

The Scottish Government target for 2030 is only just over 50% renewables energy production but a business survey reported already and expert business opinion suggest a more optimistic target. I agree after reporting recently on a number of massive projects already underway such as:

Re-opened Scottish dock to build state-of-the-art floating windfarm to begin to exploit Scotland’s 25% share of all of Europe’s offshore wind potential

 

A report by law firm Burness Paul suggests confidence they can raise funds even in these challenging times having already secured more than £200 million from banks for renewables projects including the recently commissioned 69MW Corriegarth Wind Farm in the Highlands. As described in Energy Voice, they’re confident the market will continue to: ‘grow, develop and innovate as industry and Government grapple with the challenges of the energy ‘trilemma’ – reducing energy costs, ensuring security of supply and tackling carbon emissions.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/events/all-energy-2012/138956/politics-tricky-market-not-disrupt-renewables-trend-law-firm-claims/

(c) http://y-green.blogspot.co.uk/

Although the Scottish Government’s target for 2030 is only just over 50% of all energy generation by renewables, a survey suggests many believe 100% is possible. Also, a major Scottish law firm sees tremendous potential in the renewables energy field to overcome market conditions and political barriers. I  agree, after reporting on many recent massive wind and marine turbine projects currently underway with still thirteen years to go. For examp

‘The Biggest in the World!’ 270 tidal energy turbines to be installed to provide sustainable power to Scotland

A second ‘biggest in the world’ for Scotland’s renewable energy sector

 

Now a survey by Law Firm Brodies LLP has found that 60% of companies involved in the sector thought that 100% supply was feasible despite recent Westminster cuts to subsidies and reduced incentives. The survey also indicated the importance of developing storage technologies as a way of ensuring reliability of supply at all times. Battery-based technologies are improving all the time. See this from 2014:

http://www.azocleantech.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=488

https://www.energyvoice.com/events/all-energy-2012/138976/60-firms-believe-scottish-govt-renewables-target-achievable-survey-says/