Talking-up Scotland

(Image: AFP)

I wrote on August 5^th: ‘Could Scotland’s EU migrants swing the next referendum to Yes? Yes, but there are other factors too.’

The Herald has picked up on the idea today, using the same research from Scottish Centre on European Relations which triggered my thinking and wonders the same. I can only agree with an idea I had first but there was more to my thesis making my optimism greater than the Herald’s.

While 57% of EU migrants in Scotland voted No in 2014, much has changed since then. The First Minister’s strong support for their right to stay after Brexit compared with the UK Tories’ frankly nauseating desire to use them as a bargaining chip in negotiations seems likely to have shifted their views strongly based at least on self-interest. Theresa seems not to have remembered this.

A comment piece from the Scottish Centre on European Relations, on the 4^th August 2017, offered convincing evidence that EU voters could swing the result in favour of Yes next time. Despite a fall in support for the SNP before the last general election, support for independence remains solid with the result too close to call. The last one from Survation puts Yes at 46%. The Centre estimates there will be around 250 000 eligible EU voters by 2020. For some reason, the Herald makes in only 180 000. The Centre points out that if they had all voted Yes even in 2014, that would have produced a 51% win for Yes.

Remember the gap was only 384 000 in 2014 so, in addition to the above, I added some other factors likely to add to the argument and make Yes even more likely in 2020.

• Around 200 000 additional new voters who had been too young in 2014. The young are heavily in favour of Yes.
• The deaths of a large number of older voters more likely to vote No.
• The damaging consequences of a Brexit deal which will not be kind to the UK.
• The growth in the Scottish economy evidenced in several of my earlier pieces.
• The recovery of oil and gas prices also reported here.
• The massive growth in renewable energy generation.
• Continued improvements in health indicators as the Scottish NHS increasingly outperforms its southern neighbour.
• The more balanced coverage offered by STV this time around as they continue to recognise it makes good business sense to do so.
• The continuing decline of BBC Scotland’s influence.
• The increased influence of Yes-oriented social media.

I might even put money on it if only Nicola will call one.

https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-3215

(c) ssen-transmission.co.uk

Along with storage, distribution remains a challenge for the effective consumption of Scotland’s fast growing renewable energy generation.

A major upgrade to the Beauly to Loch Buidhe link between parts of the Scottish Highlands will increase overall capacity by 30% and enable better transport of renewable generation across the region.

91 steel towers which have been there since the 1960s have been fitted with higher capacity fittings by Southern Electricity Networks. Southern?

Scotland looks likely to be 100% renewable energy sufficient by 2030 so this kind of infrastructural improvement will be essential.

https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/150761/power-line-upgrade-boost-green-energy-distribution-north-scotland/

(c) aboutbritain.co.uk

Readers may remember the UK government pulling out of funding for the scheme at Peterhead, in 2015, despite evidence that CCS will become an important technology around the world and the willingness of partners in Canada and Europe to work with the UK. The UK position remains uncertain so the Scottish Government is to push on alone and has announced funding for a feasibility study St Fergus.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a means of catching and storing harmful emissions before they get into the atmosphere and is seen as an important contribution to the fight against global climate change.

If Scotland can develop expertise in this field it would also enable us to become a ‘key player’ and to export that expertise to other parts of the world.

https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/150777/scottish-government-willing-go-alone-carbon-capture-reveals-energy-minister/

On September 11^th, a Panelbase poll put support for independence at 40%. At the time, I suggested that while some of us would have hoped for higher, this suggests a solid bedrock of support in relatively bad times for the SNP but which remains easily close enough for a surge to victory as further Tory mismanagement and a growing Scottish economy combine to make independence the only choice for the thinking mind.

Now, only 4 days later a Survation poll reports, 46% for Yes and only 54% for No. At the very least this reinforces my overall confidence in the solid bedrock of support for independence, close enough for a surge based on events nearer the time and, perhaps, that the Panelbase poll had underestimated support. It’s possible. Survation were the most accurate pollster in the last election.

It’s like one of those races where you’re tucked in nicely behind the leader benefiting from their slipstream and psychologically stronger because they know that if they stumble, you’re past them to win. The expected hard-Brexit deal and the first signs of damage to the economy along with further reports of sympathetic politicians in the EU and/or EFTA countries and we’re there.

http://survation.com/survation-most-accurate-pollster/

Back in 2011, the Scottish Government set out a strategy to secure Scotland’s digital future. You can see the planned actions here:

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2011/03/04162416/7

Research undertaken by Barclays, reported yesterday, says Scotland: ‘ranks above the UK average in five out of six of the digital skills categories – with 60% of Scots having above-basic skills.’

Crucially, the report suggests that Scots employees are now meeting the digital skills required by employers with demand running at 59% and the skill level at 60%.

The research reported in Insider magazine further points out that: ‘unlike in Scotland, digital skills across the UK are not keeping pace with demand. The Barclays index found that 63 per cent of UK jobs require digital skills such as word-processing, database spreadsheet or social media management skills, but only 57 per cent of the workforce has these capabilities.’

Also in the Insider report, the Scottish Government strategy, though not credited directly, seems to have played a major part in this:

‘Jamie Grant, head of corporate banking in Scotland for Barclays, said the results reflect efforts north of the Border to tackle the digital skills gap. In recent year, we’ve seen a movement across Scotland [Government strategy 2011?] to tackle digital exclusion and with improved digital skills returning a range of social, cultural and economic benefits it is clear why it is of such importance.’

Overall, Scotland came in 4^th after London, Northern Ireland and North-West England.

http://www.insider.co.uk/news/digital-skills-are-keeping-pace-11177403

(c) revolvy.com

A YouGov survey on the 13^th has revealed that Scottish Labour supporters are more likely to describe themselves as (just) ‘slightly left of centre’ (20% than English Labour supporters (20%). Also, while 65% of English Labour supporters would choose the clearly leftist Greens as a second preference, in Scotland, only 42% would choose the Greens and 41% would choose the clearly centre-right LibDems.

This suggest the Corbynist Richard Leonard stands less chance than the more centrist, well actually shifty, Anwar Sarwar, can win despite his recent bad press. Reinforcing this point is the fact that only current Labour members will be allowed to vote. There will be no influx of Corbynistas but only the older membership who mostly supported Owen Smith.

YouGov interpret the lack of a major influx of new members to the leftist policies of the SNP:

‘It seems as though politically engaged left-wingers – who have joined Labour in large numbers elsewhere in recent years – did not do so to the same extent in Scotland as they had already found a home in the Scottish National Party. After the independence referendum SNP membership surged to over 100,000, leaving a much smaller pool from which Scottish Labour could draw members.’

Taken together, these points suggest a more centrist candidate will take the Scottish leadership again.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/09/13/why-labour-centrists-stand-better-chance-scotland/

Sarwar’s leadership seems doomed to further exposure and failure. Add to that the fact that he doesn’t seem that bright and Labour’s future looks even more bleak. Further, the widening gap between Ruth Davidson and her leader suggests a completely fractured, internally squabbling and incoherent opposition.

This could turn out to be a key moment in the move toward 100% reliable renewable energy use. Tidal power generation is constant and powerful. Hydrogen is ‘green’. Hydrogen can be stored. Hydrogen can be used to power all sorts of vehicles such as Aberdeen and London’s buses. See:

As world’s largest tidal energy plant in Pentland Firth generates 1GWh which is enough for 700 000 homes, will Scotland become the most energy-rich country in Europe?

I hope you’re not getting fed-up hearing about Scottish renewable energy records but here’s another

Storing Scotland’s massive renewable energy production

Suddenly there’s a brilliant alternative to oil rig decommissioning costs. You can store Scotland’s surplus renewable electricity with it and it’s low-tech.

For the first time anywhere in the world, the Scottish Government’s £3 million-funded European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) has produced hydrogen gas using electricity generated from tidal energy, in Orkney. Here’s how it works as explained in the EMEC report

‘By harnessing the power of the tide at EMEC’s tidal energy test site at the Fall of Warness, Eday, Orkney, prototype tidal energy converters – Scotrenewables’ SR2000 and Tocardo’s TFS and T2 turbine – fed power into an electrolyser situated next to EMEC’s onshore substation. Supplied by ITM Power, the electrolyser uses the electricity to split water (H2O) into its component parts – hydrogen (H2) and oxygen (O2). The electrolyser is housed in a standard 20’ by 10’ ISO container with hydrogen generation capacity of up to 220kg/24hours.’

http://www.emec.org.uk/press-release-worlds-first-tidal-powered-hydrogen-generated-at-emec/

Remember, this was done with electricity from one marine turbine in the Orkneys. There’s a four hundred marine turbine field being built in the Pentland Firth.

(c) dawn.com

BP CEO Bob Dudley said yesterday:

This focus on standardization, simplification and discipline on cost has contributed to our average production costs in the North Sea coming down from a peak of over $30 a barrel in 2014, to less than $15 a barrel today. Heading towards 2020, with all our major new developments coming into production, we expect that to come down below $12 a barrel in the North Sea.’

North Sea oil for November is trading at around $55 dollars per barrel so that means billions in profits are being made yet little is being paid in tax and, of course, none of it is going into a fund for the Scottish people.

This explains how Goldman Sachs could say on August 5^th this year:

‘Oil majors are raking in more cash now than they did in the heyday of $100 oil, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Integrated giants like BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc have adapted to lower prices by cutting costs and improving operations, analysts at the bank including Michele Della Vigna said in a research note Wednesday. European majors made more cash during the first half of this year, when Brent averaged $52/bbl, than they did in the first half of 2014 when prices were $109.’

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/14814/who-needs-100-oil-majors-seen-making-more-cash-at-50-goldman-says/

The Goldman Sachs statement did catch me off guard at the time but I see it now.

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/15098/bp-chief-says-north-sea-costs-are-15-per-barrel/

The message is clear. How many more do the Scottish people need to get these opinion polls showing confidence in independence?

In August, I could write:

Nope, still no recession, Fraser of Allander ‘Institute’: Scottish employment climbs to record high while unemployment and inactivity falls over the quarter.

In July, I could write:

Unemployment at record low, employment up, economy growing, youth unemployment amongst lowest in Europe, business confidence increasing, oil jobs returning, health indicators improving to world’s best: That’ll be Norway? No? Scotland!? SNP baaaad!

Here’s the detail from the BBC website:

1. Scotland’s jobless total fell by 7,000 in the three months to July, to stand at 102,000.
2. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3% from the previous quarter to reach 3.8% – below the UK figure of 4.3%.
3. The number of people in work rose by 60,000 to 2,587,000, according to the Office for National Statistics.
4. Meanwhile, wages in the period were 2.1% higher than a year earlier, little changed from previous months’ growth rates.

Scotland’s Employability Minister said:

‘With the most recent GDP figures showing the Scottish economy grew nearly four times that of the UK in the first quarter of this year, today’s labour market figures are further proof that the fundamentals of Scotland’s economy remain strong, despite the challenges posed by Brexit.’

Douglas Fraser from the BBC Scotland ‘news’ institution and Stuart McIntyre, from the Fraser of Allander economic research ‘institute’ seemed unable to find any big ‘buts’ and are now apparently as happy as pigs in shit. David Mundell did find a ‘but’, but I’m not quoting it here. Happy memories of impending recession are not mentioned. They don’t get quoted on my blog unless it’s funny.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-41252778

(c) edfenergy.com

In the latest auction with the UK government, offshore wind energy developers offered prices as low as £57.50 per megawatt hour (MWh). Hinkley Point C (Costly?) was guaranteed £92.50 MWh but this is inflation-linked as is already closer to £100/MWh. This guarantee also stands for 35 years. A very bad deal indeed for the UK consumer but not for us given that we must surely break away long before 35 years have passed.

In 2015, offshore wind power schemes required subsidies resulting in costs of around £117/MWh. This is dramatic evidence of the rapid development of the technology including larger more powerful turbines and now puts wind power way ahead of all other energy production methods in terms of cost to the consumer as well as to the environment. Keep in mind also, these are still early days for renewable technologies compared to competing technologies such as nuclear which can only become more expensive as safety fears intensify.
https://www.ft.com/content/7401f5e0-96c0-11e7-a652-cde3f882dd7b