A YouGov survey on the 13th has revealed that Scottish Labour supporters are more likely to describe themselves as (just) ‘slightly left of centre’ (20% than English Labour supporters (20%). Also, while 65% of English Labour supporters would choose the clearly leftist Greens as a second preference, in Scotland, only 42% would choose the Greens and 41% would choose the clearly centre-right LibDems.
This suggest the Corbynist Richard Leonard stands less chance than the more centrist, well actually shifty, Anwar Sarwar, can win despite his recent bad press. Reinforcing this point is the fact that only current Labour members will be allowed to vote. There will be no influx of Corbynistas but only the older membership who mostly supported Owen Smith.
YouGov interpret the lack of a major influx of new members to the leftist policies of the SNP:
‘It seems as though politically engaged left-wingers – who have joined Labour in large numbers elsewhere in recent years – did not do so to the same extent in Scotland as they had already found a home in the Scottish National Party. After the independence referendum SNP membership surged to over 100,000, leaving a much smaller pool from which Scottish Labour could draw members.’
Taken together, these points suggest a more centrist candidate will take the Scottish leadership again.
Sarwar’s leadership seems doomed to further exposure and failure. Add to that the fact that he doesn’t seem that bright and Labour’s future looks even more bleak. Further, the widening gap between Ruth Davidson and her leader suggests a completely fractured, internally squabbling and incoherent opposition.