Has Theresa May tripped up again and given the Yes campaign more than a laugh?

New-Conservative-Party-leader-Theresa-May

(Image: AFP)

I wrote on August 5th: Could Scotland’s EU migrants swing the next referendum to Yes? Yes, but there are other factors too.’

The Herald has picked up on the idea today, using the same research from Scottish Centre on European Relations which triggered my thinking and wonders the same. I can only agree with an idea I had first but there was more to my thesis making my optimism greater than the Herald’s.

While 57% of EU migrants in Scotland voted No in 2014, much has changed since then. The First Minister’s strong support for their right to stay after Brexit compared with the UK Tories’ frankly nauseating desire to use them as a bargaining chip in negotiations seems likely to have shifted their views strongly based at least on self-interest. Theresa seems not to have remembered this.

A comment piece from the Scottish Centre on European Relations, on the 4th August 2017, offered convincing evidence that EU voters could swing the result in favour of Yes next time. Despite a fall in support for the SNP before the last general election, support for independence remains solid with the result too close to call. The last one from Survation puts Yes at 46%. The Centre estimates there will be around 250 000 eligible EU voters by 2020. For some reason, the Herald makes in only 180 000. The Centre points out that if they had all voted Yes even in 2014, that would have produced a 51% win for Yes.

Remember the gap was only 384 000 in 2014 so, in addition to the above, I added some other factors likely to add to the argument and make Yes even more likely in 2020.

  • Around 200 000 additional new voters who had been too young in 2014. The young are heavily in favour of Yes.
  • The deaths of a large number of older voters more likely to vote No.
  • The damaging consequences of a Brexit deal which will not be kind to the UK.
  • The growth in the Scottish economy evidenced in several of my earlier pieces.
  • The recovery of oil and gas prices also reported here.
  • The massive growth in renewable energy generation.
  • Continued improvements in health indicators as the Scottish NHS increasingly outperforms its southern neighbour.
  • The more balanced coverage offered by STV this time around as they continue to recognise it makes good business sense to do so.
  • The continuing decline of BBC Scotland’s influence.
  • The increased influence of Yes-oriented social media.

I might even put money on it if only Nicola will call one.

https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-3215

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26 thoughts on “Has Theresa May tripped up again and given the Yes campaign more than a laugh?

  1. Bugger (the Panda) September 16, 2017 / 4:55 pm

    Remember Theresa May’s Henry the 5th Laws? She will block EU citizens with a stroke of her pen. We need the EU on our side arguing for us and monitoring the referendum.

    Liked by 2 people

    • johnrobertson834 September 16, 2017 / 5:28 pm

      From the Herald:

      Theresa May will gift the Yes campaign a head start in any second independence referendum after signalling a move to let EU migrants keep the vote after Brexit.

      In a key concession, the Prime Minister is understood to be ready to keep the existing Holyrood franchise in return for the same deal for British citizens on the continent.

      Her move, widely flagged as she prepares to reboot talks with Brussels in a keynote speech in Florence next week, is expected to have “significant” repercussions in Scotland.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Bugger (the Panda) September 16, 2017 / 5:32 pm

        I just get mixed up between his number in the lineage and the number of official wives he had.

        Liked by 2 people

  2. Jim Hume September 16, 2017 / 5:27 pm

    We must every resident in Scotland the vote. EU Nationals were allowed to vote in the last Independence referendum, they must be allowed to vote in the next one.
    It’s up to Scots on who votes and who doesn’t.
    Postal votes must be scrapped replaced by identifiable proxy votes.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Bugger (the Panda) September 16, 2017 / 5:35 pm

      There is a discussion on Twitter suggesting that EU nationals in Scotland will get the vote whilst she gets that UK nationals get the same. No doubt they will be 600,000 non Scots who like scotch, in the EU, who will decide they are Scottish.

      Liked by 2 people

  3. macgilleleabhar September 16, 2017 / 7:29 pm

    This makes me wonder what May &co are up to. First of all no coherent ideas for the Irish border and now giving the EU Nationals residents in Scotland ,who I would think have a vested interest in Scottish independence ,a vote in the referendum looks a tad suspicious.Was the DUP ‘s unexpectedly good deal with the Tories a parting gift to Northern Ireland? Is England really returning to its historic borders?

    Liked by 2 people

    • johnrobertson834 September 16, 2017 / 8:01 pm

      There’s a thought. I’m sure there are Tories who’d like to be rid of the Celtic fringe and rule unchallenged in Olde England.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Alasdair Macdonald September 16, 2017 / 8:45 pm

      I have a friend whom I have known since schooldays, who had a substantial diplomatic career, retiring as a head of legation. He and I were recently discussing some of the conundrums of Brexit and, specifically, the Irish border. His view was clear: The Tories don’t give a shit about Ireland. It is of no importance to them as long as they can keep their snouts in the trough, can deal themselves more powers and disempower the rest of us.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. Ludo Thierry September 16, 2017 / 8:18 pm

    Hi John et al – I certainly hope our EU friends resident in Scotland will indeed be on the electoral register come the brexit Indy ref.

    One of the reasons they will choose to vote for Indy is the observable consistent application of good governance principles by the SNP Scottish Govt. A story that has had precious little coverage has been that of John Swinney stepping in to prevent a whopping 17% pay rise for a Glasgow college official:

    An ”outrageous” 17% pay increase for a Scottish college official will no longer go ahead after an intervention from the Education Secretary. MSPs criticised the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) last week for failing to prevent the rise agreed by Glasgow Colleges’ Regional Board (GCRB). John Swinney said the planned 17% pay rise was ‘unacceptable’

    The move would have seen the salary of the board’s executive director Robin Ashton increase from £81,000 to £95,000. Holyrood’s Public Audit Committee heard that SFC interim chief executive Dr John Kemp had decided not to use his power to step in over the decision, despite thinking it was ”very hard to justify”. But in a letter to the committee, John Swinney has now confirmed the rise will not no ahead, describing it as “unacceptable”, particularly in the current climate of challenging public sector finances.

    The Deputy First Minister and Education Secretary wrote: “I expect all publicly funded institutions to ensure they operate with maximum efficiency and effectiveness. “I am pleased to be able to inform you that my officials have subsequently been in close discussion with the interim chair of GCRB and the SFC. “We have today been advised by the interim chair that he has reconsidered the decision made by the board, taking into account the views of PAPLSC members and recognising the expectations of the Scottish Government that those funded from the public purse should operate within the spirit of the principles of the public sector pay policy.

    “He has confirmed that there will be no change to the existing terms and conditions of the current post holder. “The salary, therefore, remains in line with the previous level of remuneration for this post.”

    Acting to promote a fair pay policy in extremely difficult circumstances – without the big jobs grabbing all the sweeties. Further evidence of competence and a sense of fair-play in the exercise of governmental authority. Well done John Swinney and the SNP Scottish Govt.

    Ta, Ludo

    Liked by 2 people

  5. johnrobertson834 September 17, 2017 / 7:54 am

    Yes, in this case. I did protest at waste of public funds by my previous employer and Ms Constance did nothing.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Bugger (the Panda) September 17, 2017 / 7:56 am

    Scottish exiles?

    Like

    • Clydebuilt September 17, 2017 / 9:03 am

      Japanese CEO’s looking at the business opportunities highlighted daily by John. Plus the manager of the Brew Dog Pub in Tokyo

      Like

      • johnrobertson834 September 17, 2017 / 10:41 am

        That’s probably it. While on meds I’m drinking Bredog’s Nanny State beer (alc-free)

        Liked by 1 person

      • Clydebuilt September 17, 2017 / 1:21 pm

        My fav. Alcohol free is Franziskaner Weissbier, indistinguishable from the real brew. Erdinger’s ok but IMHO not as good ( both Bout £1.30 for 500ml) . Wish I’d bought some shares in Brewdog when first offered. Drinking ye canny beat it.

        Like

    • johnrobertson834 September 17, 2017 / 10:40 am

      Who all arrived this week? I’ve never had more than 1 before.

      Like

      • Bugger (the Panda) September 17, 2017 / 10:43 am

        There might be an SNP cell there who shared it around.

        It all depends on what are the alternatives to the above.

        Liked by 2 people

      • Clydebuilt September 17, 2017 / 1:28 pm

        Apparently last week the Scottsh manager at the BD bar told a CEO about Your blog, word spreads. Tokyo is a big city, is the server big enough?

        Liked by 1 person

    • Clydebuilt September 17, 2017 / 6:09 pm

      Brewdog . . .

      Like

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