On September 11th, a Panelbase poll put support for independence at 40%. At the time, I suggested that while some of us would have hoped for higher, this suggests a solid bedrock of support in relatively bad times for the SNP but which remains easily close enough for a surge to victory as further Tory mismanagement and a growing Scottish economy combine to make independence the only choice for the thinking mind.
Now, only 4 days later a Survation poll reports, 46% for Yes and only 54% for No. At the very least this reinforces my overall confidence in the solid bedrock of support for independence, close enough for a surge based on events nearer the time and, perhaps, that the Panelbase poll had underestimated support. It’s possible. Survation were the most accurate pollster in the last election.
It’s like one of those races where you’re tucked in nicely behind the leader benefiting from their slipstream and psychologically stronger because they know that if they stumble, you’re past them to win. The expected hard-Brexit deal and the first signs of damage to the economy along with further reports of sympathetic politicians in the EU and/or EFTA countries and we’re there.