Support for Independence too close to call at 46% in new poll


On September 11th, a Panelbase poll put support for independence at 40%. At the time, I suggested that while some of us would have hoped for higher, this suggests a solid bedrock of support in relatively bad times for the SNP but which remains easily close enough for a surge to victory as further Tory mismanagement and a growing Scottish economy combine to make independence the only choice for the thinking mind.

Now, only 4 days later a Survation poll reports, 46% for Yes and only 54% for No. At the very least this reinforces my overall confidence in the solid bedrock of support for independence, close enough for a surge based on events nearer the time and, perhaps, that the Panelbase poll had underestimated support. It’s possible. Survation were the most accurate pollster in the last election.

It’s like one of those races where you’re tucked in nicely behind the leader benefiting from their slipstream and psychologically stronger because they know that if they stumble, you’re past them to win. The expected hard-Brexit deal and the first signs of damage to the economy along with further reports of sympathetic politicians in the EU and/or EFTA countries and we’re there.


5 thoughts on “Support for Independence too close to call at 46% in new poll

  1. Alasdair Macdonald September 16, 2017 / 8:49 pm

    When we consider the fact that “Better Together” via clones has continued to campaign unceasingly and with increased intensity since September,19, 2014, this is remarkable support being shown. My Calvinistic pessimism warns me not to become hubristic.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. remo fantini September 17, 2017 / 7:31 am

    We where told all the lies with Labour and the Torys in 2014 when the time comes in 2018 it will be IDEPENDENCE FOR SCOTLAND

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Brian Powell September 17, 2017 / 2:05 pm

    The strange part of these polls is that only one part of the No side stand to win, as the Tories are in power at Westminster most of the time, and they can undo more easily anything that Labour does, the part of No that is most likely to win is the Tories. A Labour gov in Holyrood is minimal to zero threat to Tory Westminster.
    Labour in Scotland and subsequently Labour in Westminster colluded with the Tories to give Holyrood the least powers available, so there would be little it could do against Westminster and would need to tow the line to get funding.
    it seems glaringly obvious but not to Labour.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s