Could Scotland’s EU migrants swing the next referendum to Yes? Yes, but there are other factors too

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While 57% of EU migrants in Scotland voted No in 2014, much has changed since then. The First Minister’s strong support for their right to stay after Brexit compared with the UK Tories’ frankly nauseating desire to use them as a bargaining chip in negotiations seems likely to have shifted their views strongly based at least on self-interest.

A new comment piece from the Scottish Centre on European Relations offers convincing evidence that EU voters could swing the result in favour of Yes next time. Despite a fall in support for the SNP before the last general election, support for independence remains solid with the result too close to call. The Centre estimates there will be around 250 000 eligible EU voters by 2020. The Centre points out that if they had all voted Yes even in 2014 that would have produced a 51% win for Yes.

Remember the gap was only 384 000 in 2014 so, in addition to the above, I’d add some other factors likely to add to their argument and make Yes even more likely in 2020.

  • Around 200 000 additional new voters who had been too young in 2014. The young are heavily in favour of Yes.
  • The deaths of a large number of older voters more likely to vote No.
  • The damaging consequences of a Brexit deal which will not be kind to the UK.
  • The growth in the Scottish economy evidenced in several of my earlier pieces.
  • The recovery of oil and gas prices also reported here.
  • The massive growth in renewable energy generation.
  • Continued improvements in health indicators as the Scottish NHS increasingly outperforms its southern neighbour.
  • The more balanced coverage offered by STV this time around as they continue to recognise it makes good business sense to do so.
  • The continuing decline of BBC Scotland’s influence.
  • The increased influence of Yes-oriented social media.

I might even put money on it if only Nicola will call one.

https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-3215

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10 thoughts on “Could Scotland’s EU migrants swing the next referendum to Yes? Yes, but there are other factors too

  1. Bugger (the Panda) August 5, 2017 / 5:21 pm

    Big unknown is the number of people entering the “older voter” category, who were floating voters in 2014, maybe voted YES and will become NO because they want to protect the little they have?

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  2. Bugger (the Panda) August 5, 2017 / 5:59 pm

    I wasn’t criticising you, it was just that there is an indication of a migration to conservatism (small c) as people enter retirement an fixed income land.

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  3. Bugger (the Panda) August 5, 2017 / 6:00 pm

    I have not feeling of the dynamics of that voting group

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  4. Ian stewart August 6, 2017 / 7:45 am

    In 2014 the No Campaign telephoned all suspected EU citizens in the phone books telling them if they voted No, Scotland would be out of the EU and they would have to leave. They can’t do that second time around.

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