Talking-up Scotland

The YouGov poll of 1135 Scottish adults on 2^nd to 5^th October 2017, shows the SNP up 3 at 40%, Labour up 3 at 30% and the Tories down 6 at 23%. This is the third poll in a row to suggest a strong SNP recovery from the General Election and what seems to be the bursting of the Scottish Tories’ bubble as they sink back into third place well behind two left-of-centre parties. These data are only to be found on page 5 with Holyrood voting intentions leading off on page 1. The latter are SNP 42%, Labour and Tories both 25% suggesting perhaps a loss of a pro-independence party majority in Holyrood. This has had the mainstream media attention but it is the Westminster data which are the more interesting to us.

Returning to my regular theme of how different Scotland is, this poll shows 70% support for left-of centre policies in Scotland and only rising to 42% in England even with the Corbyn surge. That’s a big difference.

The figures show 90% of SNP voters holding firm with only 8% having returned to preferring Labour. I have to assume this 8% is fragile as their leadership race highlights its lack of cohesion. If only 5% of this returns to voting SNP and as some of the Tory support from Labour and LibDem ‘strategic voters’ goes home disgusted by what they have done, then we are back in the position of anticipating more than 50 SNP seats.

Also of interest in the figures is that only 44% of the SNP support said they had voted to remain in the EU. This would seem to support my view yesterday that uncritical loyalty to the EU and not the threat of Indyref2 was responsible for the SNP losses in the General Election. See:

Uncritical EU loyalty not the suggestion of IndyRef2 was to blame for SNP losses. As the EU abandons the Catalans, it’s time for us to abandon it

Finally, the over-65s remain the problem with 70% saying they would vote for one of the three Unionist parties. I’ve seen them in my local newsagent buying the Telegraph and, I guess, going home to watch Andrew Neill. Do we just have to wait?

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/my4tckrell/TimesResults_ScotlandVI_171005_W.pdf

(c) poleev

 I know Reporting Scotland can find any number of folk in the street saying they don’t want another independence referendum but that doesn’t mean they would all be voting No if they got one. There’s no convincing evidence of that and the Yes vote is holding up in polls far too close to 50% for us to think we couldn’t push it over the line as the Brexit deal becomes clear, as oil prices boom, as EU nationals turn in support for Yes, as the mainstream media shrinks and as the Tories make embarrassing mistakes weekly in the run-up. I don’t often agree with psephologist and Professor John Curtice but his article in Prospect magazine today is right on the money. The link is below but here are the key points summarised for those without the time:

1. The SNP vote is recovering, already 2 to 3 points up since June;
2. The SNP is still way ahead of its rivals;
3. The opposition is divided and not credible as an alternative government;
4. The Tory boom has stalled as they fall back to third in polls;
5. Support for independence is holding solid above 40%;
6. Support for independence has polled as high as 47%;
7. 25 to 33% of SNP supporters voted ‘leave’ in the EU referendum;
8. Much of the drop in support, in June, seems likely to be due to the above;
9. UK unionists care more about that union than the EU and so will never support the SNP;

I’d add one more point:

10. The Labour recovery is very fragile and party support could split after the leadership election.

Curtice concludes:

‘Indeed, rather than simply being occasioned by opposition to an early independence referendum (as is widely assumed), much of the drop in the SNP vote in June looks as though it was occasioned by the party’s ardent support for the pro-European cause. Between one quarter and one third of 2015 SNP voters actually voted to leave, and according to the British Election Study, support for the party dropped by 20 points between 2015 and 2017 amongst Leave voters, compared with just five points amongst those who voted to Remain.’ 

The EU has turned its back on the Catalans. France has said it will not recognise an independent Catalonia. The UK certainly won’t either. The EU’s economic policies remain neo-liberal unlike those of the SNP. Look at their treatment of Greece. In the light of all of this, it’s time for the SNP leadership to make a u-turn (not always a bad thing), go for and explain why, EFTA membership, publicly disown the EU over its treatment of Catalonia and its denial of the right to nationalise rail and energy companies, promise support for a Corbyn Labour government to kill Scottish Labour support and go for a referendum in 2020. We can win it.

http://archive.is/Tj5Qf#selection-423.0-549.394

Footnote: Back in 2014, one blogger compared me to Prof Curtice by saying he was like a Premier League player and I was like a reserve for the third team at Elgin City! A bit harsh? I bet I could have dribbled by him easy. One of my second or third or fourth cousins won the European Cup with Notts Forest!

(c) Credit: Lesley Martin/Lesley Martin

This is indeed good news as the SNP membership shows its best, most enlightened, side. 16 and 17-year-olds will not be able sign up to the armed forces in an independent Scotland. Army cadet units in state schools have already been banned by the Scottish government.

The motion pointed out that younger soldiers have an increased risk of death in combat are more likely to abuse alcohol during and after service and are more likely to suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder. There have also been the four disputed suicide deaths of young soldiers training at the Deepcut Barracks in Surrey. Not mentioned, as far as I can see, is the additional fact that soldiers living on the streets, homeless, are according to a British Legion survey, ‘mainly young and of junior rank.’

http://media.britishlegion.org.uk/Media/2283/litrev_ukvetshomelessness.pdf

There are around 9 000 ex-service personnel living on the streets after being discharged.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/9000-ex-service-personnel-homeless-after-2071049

The motion also accused the MoD of targeting vulnerable 15-year-olds from deprived areas by making visits to schools. I can’t find any official line from the Scottish Tories on this.

Footnote: Months ago I happened to spot that Ruth Davidson and Adolf Hitler had served in similar military roles. Just saying. It’s at:

Scottish Tory Leader, Ruth ‘I’ve never been caught out’ Davidson, is caught out! We can reveal she had the same military role, sort of, as Adolf Hitler!

(c) caltonjock.com

After endless exposures of bigotry, neo-facism, racism, misogyny and homophobia among the ranks of their activists, councillors, MSPs and MPs, are the Scottish Tories trying to do something useful. Here’s some of their ‘previous’:

Phew, Scottish Tories are still bigots, racists [and penis fantasizers]. I was worried they might be changing.

Open Democracy Expose bad smell in funding of Scottish Tories

I told you. Tories cannot contain their inherent nastiness.

‘Fuck off back to Scotland!’ I told you, we can rely on the sort of people the Tories are to help us win Indyref2

However, Scotland’s 13 Tory MPs have all written to the Chancellor to ask him to give the Scottish police and fire services VAT-exemption as is the case for their English equivalents. The anomaly is because the Scottish services are ‘national’ while the English services are ‘local’ thus exempt from VAT by HMRC under current legislation. Since 2013, Police Scotland has paid a total of £76.5 million in Vat and currently has a £25 million overspend despite an extra £55 million this year from the Scottish Government. It’s clear what is causing the overspend. As the Scottish Tories’ popularity seems to be falling again in the polls, I suspect the Chancellor might be more sympathetic to them than he has been to the same plea from the Scottish government over the last few years. So, admittedly useful but probably mainly self-interested like the DUP deal Theresa did to survive.

https://www.accountancylive.com/hmrc-warned-police-scotland-ps76m-vat-bill

(c) GETTY IMAGES

The Scottish Government will spend around £25 million to help those EU nationals working in our schools, universities and hospitals by paying the naturalisation application fee for them. It currently costs £1 282 to apply for naturalisation and the UK government has said they will be able to apply for it if they have lived in the UK for five years at the point of Brexit. Given that are around 200 000 EU nationals living in Scotland altogether, I suppose paying for them all would a bit much.

Nicola Sturgeon will announce the promise at the SNP Conference and describe it as a way of protecting this group from the ‘looming threat of Brexit.’ She will also urge private employers to do the same to help retain the workers they value.

This strikes me as another good idea from a government that seems to actually care about its people rather than merely its own survival.

(c) fringepig.co.uk

Alex Salmond is allegedly working with a consortium to buy the Scotsman newspaper with a view to it helping to re-balance the Scottish mainstream press by reporting more sympathetically on Scottish independence and, presumably, the SNP.

My first reaction was yeah! Then I thought about it a bit more. Even if we accept their figures, the Scotsman only sells around 20 000 copies per day on average. Regular contributor to this blog, Ludo Thierry, has earlier shown that they only really sell, for money, around 13 000. Is it worth buying especially if it loses even more of its currently pro-Union readers in the process?

As social media come to dominate political discourse and even TV news audiences fall as their loyal older viewers pass away, this may be a good idea but one that is just too late.

I suppose you could argue that the press influence TV reporting and so are worth owning for that reason alone but do any of us think a pro-independence Scotsman writer would get any more access to Reporting or Good Morning Scotland than any other pro-independence writer?

I suppose if they get it really cheap, it might be worth a go.

Footnote: Back in 2014 when I suggested, in a Holyrood committee, that the mainstream media were demonising Alex Salmond, the Scotsman did a piece on it. Nearly all of the comments below attacked me. One wrote: ‘Professor Robertson, the kind of guy you’d like to get stuck in a lift with (not).’ Unable to resist, I replied ‘That’s how I got my wife pregnant. Are you sure you want to go ahead with this?’ Me bad, I know

Alex Salmond is allegedly working with a consortium to buy the Scotsman newspaper with a view to it helping to rebalance the Scottish mainstream press by reporting more sympathetically on Scottish independence and, presumably, the SNP.

My first reaction was yeah! Then I thought about it a bit more. Even if we accept their figures, the Scotsman only sells around 20 000 copies per day on average. Regular contributor to this blog, Ludo Thierry, has earlier shown that they only really sell, for money, around 13 000. Is it worth buying especially if it loses even more of its currently pro-Union readers in the process?

As social media come to dominate political discourse and even TV news audiences fall as their loyal older viewers pass away, this may be a good idea but one that is just too late.

I suppose you could argue that the press influence TV reporting and so are worth owning for that reason alone but do any of us think a pro-independence Scotsman writer would get any more access to Reporting or Good Morning Scotland than any other pro-independence writer?

I suppose if they get it really cheap, it might be worth a go.

Footnote: Back in 2014 when I suggested, in a Holyrood committee, that the mainstream media were demonising Alex Salmond, the Scotsman did a piece on it. Nearly all of the comments below attacked me. One wrote: ‘Professor Robertson, the kind of guy you’d like to get stuck in a lift with (not).’ Unable to resist, I replied ‘That’s how I got my wife pregnant. Are you sure you want to go ahead with this?’ Me bad, I know

Alex Salmond is allegedly working with a consortium to buy the Scotsman newspaper with a view to it helping to rebalance the Scottish mainstream press by reporting more sympathetically on Scottish independence and, presumably, the SNP.

My first reaction was yeah! Then I thought about it a bit more. Even if we accept their figures, the Scotsman only sells around 20 000 copies per day on average. Regular contributor to this blog, Ludo Thierry, has earlier shown that they only really sell, for money, around 13 000. Is it worth buying especially if it loses even more of its currently pro-Union readers in the process?

As social media come to dominate political discourse and even TV news audiences fall as their loyal older viewers pass away, this may be a good idea but one that is just too late.

I suppose you could argue that the press influence TV reporting and so are worth owning for that reason alone but do any of us think a pro-independence Scotsman writer would get any more access to Reporting or Good Morning Scotland than any other pro-independence writer?

I suppose if they get it really cheap, it might be worth a go.

Footnote: Back in 2014 when I suggested, in a Holyrood committee, that the mainstream media were demonising Alex Salmond, the Scotsman did a piece on it. Nearly all of the comments below attacked me. One wrote: ‘Professor Robertson, the kind of guy you’d like to get stuck in a lift with (not).’ Unable to resist, I replied ‘That’s how I got my wife pregnant. Are you sure you want to go ahead with this?’ Me bad, I know

(c) theedinburghreporter.co.uk

Not only is Scotrail the best, most punctual, service in the UK it has the biggest heart too. See these earlier reports as evidence of the first bit:

ScotRail punctuality performance still best in UK and actually improving more than ten times faster than UK average. Any comment, Ruth, Anas?

Scotrail outperforms services in England and Wales

Scotrail Alliance are offering two free return journeys per month to job-seekers and will cover the cost of the first month’s travel to a new job so that they can survive until that first salary payment at the end of the month.

This story brought a wee lump to my throat. I didn’t greet, I’m a Scot!

Seriously, what a brilliant idea. I wonder if any of the rail companies south of the border have similar schemes or would get you there on time anyway? Surprise me.

 

Scottish National Heritage has just launched a new research project into how the current growth of new social/affordable housebuilding in Scotland can include the above entitlement.

We already know that such access can bring a range of health benefits both physical and mental. Given the increasing demands on our NHS, this makes good economic sense too.

The research on how including a green infrastructure within and around new social housing developments will report in April 2018.

As you probably know Scotland is pushing ahead with social housebuilding at more than twice the rate per head of population of England and that the Scottish government has a target of an additional 50 000 within this parliament alone. See:

Scottish Government increases supply of affordable housing and builds at more, perhaps much more, than twice the rate as in England

Scottish Government plan to approve more than 10 000 affordable new homes this year

https://www.snhpresscentre.com/news/scottish-natural-heritage-announces-social-housing-research

With much new building underway, I’d hope developers could start thinking about this before April 2018.

 

(c) ALAMY

It was pretty windy on Monday past though less so than I expected as I prepared the garden furniture for the onslaught. Despite that it was windy enough to send our wind farms into overdrive, producing 41 866MWh, enough for more than 7 million homes and so 206% of our needs. We have only a third of the above number of homes.

This is not the first time this has happened and its becoming more common as new wind farms come on stream. See these previous reports:

‘Scotland ‘Saudi of wind’ or ‘Gagging on Wind Power’

With massive new wind-farms being built and still to come online, Scotland’s existing wind-farms provide 48% of August’s demand and more than 100% on nine days

Now, I know we can’t store much of the surplus yet but plans are underway and early developments are in place to make sure we can long before the target of 100% renewables sustainability in 2030. See these:

£20 million Scottish renewable energy storage unit for Broxburn will be first in UK

Storing Scotland’s massive renewable energy production

WWF Scotland’s director punned, giving credit the SNP administration:

‘Monday proved to be a great day for renewable electricity output, with wind turbines alone providing enough to power 7million homes and way more than Scotland’s total electricity needs. We’re blown away (😉) by these figures but they are part of a pattern of increasingly green power production made possible thanks to many years of political support in Scotland. Across the year, renewables now contribute over half of our electricity needs.’

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/152414/scottish-gale-forces-delivered-countrys-full-electricity-requirement/

Something to listen to as you relax after reading this:

(Image: Flickr/DAVID HOLT)

London had a red alert for air pollution seven times in the last year alone. Other major global cities have had to ban cars from city centres on some days to ease the pollution levels. The old and the unwell are dying in increasing numbers in these cities. London has also put a surcharge on diesel-powered vehicles entering the city.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/27/london-issues-red-alert-for-extremely-high-air-pollution

I live on the Ayrshire coast and like many Scots often bemoan the almost constant winds but I guess we should be glad of the air quality they produce.

Recent official figures have shown that, across Scotland, pollution levels are falling dramatically. Most notably, lead levels are down by 99% since 1990. Sulphur dioxide is down 92%, carbon monoxide is down 83% and nitrogen oxide is down 71%.

https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/152473/major-pollution-scotland-drops-dramatically-since-1990-new-report-finds/

The massive drop in lead levels after the ban on lead-based petrol in 2000 reminded me of New York mayor, Rudy Giuliani’s claim that his ‘zero tolerance’ policing strategy was responsible for the dramatic fall in crime in the city during the 1990s and early 2000s. The claim was soon criticised by those pesky sociologists (like me) who pointed out that, due to easier access to contraceptives, there were less disaffected young men being born in the troubled ‘projects’ (housing schemes) in the previous decades and that this inevitably reduced the number of offenders from this background. Young males are, of course, disproportionally involved in crime. Further, they drew attention to research that exposure to high levels of lead. Research has shown that exposure to lead during pregnancy reduces the head circumference of infants. In children and adults, it causes headaches, inhibits IQ and can lead to aggressive or dysfunctional behaviour. Lead was being phased out of petrol in the USA from 1975-1986.

https://www.thenation.com/article/secret-history-lead/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27067615

You can read the story in full at the above links.

So, the fall in crime, the researchers argued, was based in large part on a reduced population of potential offenders and a reduced predisposition, among them, to offend in the first place due to not having been exposed to high levels of lead in infancy.

Crime has also fallen in Scotland, as it has across much of the world, in the last twenty years after climbing throughout the 20^th Century. Like the New York researchers, I’m not denying entirely the effects of policing policy or other government initiatives and giving all the credit to easier access to contraceptives and falling lead levels. In fact, as you might expect, I’m going to give some credit to the SNP administration for their progressive policies which have reduced the negative effects of Tory austerity policies. I wonder, without hard evidence I admit, if the free bus pass, the winter heating allowance and free care for the elderly has maybe reduced crime by us pensioners? I do not, of course, count forgetting to pay for things a crime in the over 65s.