The YouGov poll of 1135 Scottish adults on 2nd to 5th October 2017, shows the SNP up 3 at 40%, Labour up 3 at 30% and the Tories down 6 at 23%. This is the third poll in a row to suggest a strong SNP recovery from the General Election and what seems to be the bursting of the Scottish Tories’ bubble as they sink back into third place well behind two left-of-centre parties. These data are only to be found on page 5 with Holyrood voting intentions leading off on page 1. The latter are SNP 42%, Labour and Tories both 25% suggesting perhaps a loss of a pro-independence party majority in Holyrood. This has had the mainstream media attention but it is the Westminster data which are the more interesting to us.
Returning to my regular theme of how different Scotland is, this poll shows 70% support for left-of centre policies in Scotland and only rising to 42% in England even with the Corbyn surge. That’s a big difference.
The figures show 90% of SNP voters holding firm with only 8% having returned to preferring Labour. I have to assume this 8% is fragile as their leadership race highlights its lack of cohesion. If only 5% of this returns to voting SNP and as some of the Tory support from Labour and LibDem ‘strategic voters’ goes home disgusted by what they have done, then we are back in the position of anticipating more than 50 SNP seats.
Also of interest in the figures is that only 44% of the SNP support said they had voted to remain in the EU. This would seem to support my view yesterday that uncritical loyalty to the EU and not the threat of Indyref2 was responsible for the SNP losses in the General Election. See:
Finally, the over-65s remain the problem with 70% saying they would vote for one of the three Unionist parties. I’ve seen them in my local newsagent buying the Telegraph and, I guess, going home to watch Andrew Neill. Do we just have to wait?