Talking-up Scotland

This morning:

‘The human right to food should be put into Scots law to protect people from rising insecurity. That’s according to a new report. Following a consultation, the Scottish Human Rights Commission is calling on the Scottish Government to make the move to tackle health inequalities. More than 480 000 food parcels were handed out by food banks between April 2017 and September 2018’

Strange time period to use? Why not for a year? Anyhow, that’s over a period of 18 months or 78 weeks (one parcel per week?), we get an average of 6154 food parcels handed out per week. The adult population is 3.45 million so 0.18% or 1 in every 561 adult Scots needs a food parcel on a typical week?

As for ‘calling on’ the Scottish Government, you won’t be surprised to hear that it was the Scottish Government which ‘called for’ the human rights folk to attend their commission.

Also, it’s worth noting that the right to food is already enshrined in international legislation which the Scottish Government has said it is committed to implementing and protecting from folk like Boris and Jacob and Theresa and Ruth and Jackson, so it already is, to all intents and purposes, in Scots law!

 

‘Doctors are concerned that vaccination rates among adults and children will drop in rural areas because of a change in the way they’re administered under a new GP contract. MMR and flu injections are among those to become the responsibility of teams set up by Scotland’s health authorities. It’s designed to reduce the GP workload, but some argue it won’t work in less populated areas where people might miss visiting teams and have to travel long distances to clinics.’

The evidence? One GP representative (above) tells us it might happen.

The uptake among children for MMR, but not for the five-in-one vaccine which protects against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), was already lower in some rural areas in under the old contract:

The real variation across Scotland’s population, adult and child, is between the deprived (79% uptake) and the non-deprived (92% uptake) areas.

http://www.healthscotland.scot/health-topics/immunisation/overview-of-immunisations

Would it be unfair to suggest that this is about GPs losing power and income to pharmacists?

‘GPs are paid a dispensing fee of around £2 per prescription on top of the £7.64 fee.’ 

http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/your-practice/practice-topics/practice-income/pharmacists-could-be-paid-more-for-flu-jabs-than-gp-practices-gpc-warns-/20010582.article

So, £9.64 per inoculation, taking about 5 minutes, £60 per hour, to administer by a nurse on just over the living wage? Nice wee earner?

They wanted the reduced workload but to keep the same income?

 

John McLellan, Conservative councillor from 2017, Director of Communications for the Conservative branch in Scotland, 2012-2013, and adviser to Ruth Davidson, tries to tell us that the Scottish Conservatives are in good health but Labour are not, so if you want to fight against those Indy-obsessed Nats, you know who to support.

It’s only in the 7^th paragraph that McLellan uses the word ‘our’ and many readers realise this is not even attempted impartial journalism. The article is just an extended and deceitful propaganda pamphlet.

McLellan writes:

‘As Conservatives in England feel the wrath of their supporters over Brexit, the party’s situation in Scotland is different as it prepares to welcome back Ruth Davidson from maternity leave….In many ways, it confirmed what most observers already suspected, that the SNP is holding steady but the slide of Scottish Labour is continuing unabated. Its vote share was down to 15.5 per cent from 22.4 per cent in 2017 despite fielding a very experienced campaigner in Nick Gardner but compare it to a total share for its two candidates in 2012 of 33.2 and the collapse in a traditional Labour seat is undeniable..The Scottish party has remained remarkably united and focused through all the chaos, largely because the SNP cannot accept the independence question has been settled.’

Now McLellan is correct in saying Labour is in trouble but he’s either out of touch or dishonest in his appraisal of the situation for the Scottish Tories. See this Scotland sub-poll for YouGov/Times with 158 adult Scots on 10^th – 11^th April 2019:

• Conservatives 22%
• Labour 16%
• Lib Dems 7%
• SNP 48%

Yes, ahead of Labour in Scotland but remember the UK Tories are considered to be in crisis at 32% and the SNP is ahead of all three of the above, put together. For the EU elections, it’s even worse for them:

• Conservatives 12%
• Labour 11%
• Lib Dems 7%
• SNP 49%

It gets even better for ‘us’ with the most recent Westminster Voting Intentions, Scotland sub-poll, from Opinium for 9-12 April:

• Conservatives 16%
• Labour 19%
• Lib Dem 4%
• SNP 51%

Here, no different from the UK Conservatives, they have fallen, with a nosebleed, below Labour!

Embedded politicians are not new of course:

Scottish Labour speech-writer pretends to be just a Scotsman journalist to blame SNP for Brexit

Late Edition: Should the Scotsman consider a new title something like this?

 

 

 

‘Investigative journalism’ funded by Ferret subscribers and fed to MSM:

You might have been forgiven for thinking Salmon farming was good for the Scottish economy. Ah Hah! Caught! Hooked! It’s very, very, bad.

As with yesterday’s Ferret feed for the Herald, the latest Scottish Salmon Crisis, funded by Ferret subscribers, has ended up in the MSM. For yesterday’s story of the chronic pain talking shop and BBC Scotland’s affection for a Ferret:

I’m getting rid of the Ferret but keeping the Canary. It’s been biting the SNP for the Herald

Author, Rob Edwards has shown his tabloid headline-writing skills recently, suggesting that Scottish minsters were ‘making a mockery’ of public consultation:

Neither of these stories, on their own, suggests any clear preference for stories damaging to the Scottish Government but you can see Edward’s engagement with the Unionist Herald and affinity with other parties, in this from 2017:

Neither of these stories, on their own, suggests any clear preference for stories damaging to the Scottish Government but you can see Edward’s engagement with the Unionist Herald and affinity with other parties, in this from 2017:

from Sunday Herald, 19 February 2017

‘The companies that want to drill for onshore gas and their political backers, the Conservative Party, are embroiled in a fight to the finish with their opponents: environmentalists, local communities, Scottish Greens and the Labour Party. The outcome, with the SNP as judge and jury, is difficult to predict.’

So, the SNP were not firm opponents of fracking? I predicted correctly.

In the Herald yesterday:

‘Hundreds of call handlers at Police Scotland could be forced to quit over cuts to pay and changes to working conditions, Willie Rennie has warned. The Scottish Liberal Democrat leader said salary reductions have damaged staff morale as he urged ministers to take action to address staff concerns.’

The National, showing its customary tolerance, also gave Rennie space to spread this panic.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17572373.police-scotland-call-handlers-facing-pay-cuts-could-be-forced-to-quit/

While I empathise with the call handlers, we all do, there is perhaps a reason:

‘In addition to an immediate pay award, the agreement will also address issues of inequality and anomalies in relation to pay progression. It also contains a commitment to resolve working practices in relation to court and night shift and offers financial stability and certainty over the period.’

https://www.scotland.police.uk/whats-happening/news/2018/september/significant-police-pay-deal-agreed

Were some staff who are exposed to physical risk on a daily basis being paid little more than the call-handlers? Will call-handlers quit and find higher pay doing a similar job or might some pursue better pay through training and transfer to other roles? I once lost 25% of my pay in a re-structuring but stayed, took the initiative, re-trained and recovered the situation five years later. Does Police Scotland find it difficult to recruit call-handlers or are there many older policemen for whom transfer to that role is part of a planned retirement programme?

Is there any evidence that call-handlers are heading for the exit, Willie?

Pollster	Month	From	To	Sample	SNP	Con	Lab
YouGov	M	24	25	181	45	17	18
Opinium	M	28	29	114	45	25	26
YouGov	A	2	3	152	48	20	18
YouGov	A	10	11	158	48	22	16
Opinium	A	9	12	115	51	16	19
Total				720
Averages					47.4	20	19.4

Today’s Opinium results added and a more recent trend considered. I know it’s subjective. Everything is. April averages are 49, 19.3 and 17.6.

These figures suggest a recent and consistently climbing trend diverging from a long period with support static at around 41%. Sub-polls are of course unreliable due to their very small size but these 5 collectively have sampled more than 700 Scots. The recent collapse of the Tories, even in Scotland and before Ruth returns, is fascinating. Who will defend the Union now?

Also, with the Greens at 5%, this sub-poll puts support for pro-Independence parties at 56% as might the unreleased Kantar sub-poll have done.

Sources at:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

 

 

Pollster	Month	From	To	Sample	SNP	Con	Lab
YouGov	M	3	4	187	41	29	14
Opinuum	M	13	15	110	51	25	8
YouGov	M	14	15	157	38	22	11
Ipsos MORI	M	15	19	91	50	15	16
Opinuum	M	20	22	118	46	26	17
YouGov	M	24	25	181	45	17	18
Opinuum	M	28	29	114	45	25	26
YouGov	A	2	3	152	48	20	18
YouGov	A	10	11	158	48	22	16
Totals				1268
Averages					45.8	25.5	15

These figures suggest a trend diverging from a long period with support consistent around 41% after recovering from sub-40% figures before that. Sub-polls are of course unreliable due to their very small size but these 9 collectively have sampled nearly 1 300 Scots. The message is clear for Labour supporters in terms of an alternative with similar social values. For supporters of independence, the message is clear – concentrate your fire on the Tories. Some of those figures pushing 30% for them are frankly disturbing.

Note: I have not, for obvious reasons, included those polls with no Scotland data sub-set released or the Hanbury poll (5-8 April) putting the SNP at 33% because it is an extreme outlier from the clear trend for all three parties. See this for more on Hanbury:

Evidence of biased sampling to reduce SNP support by ‘secretive’pollster?

Sources at:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

 

Remember this from Lord Ashcroft in 2015?

7 out of the last 9 sub-polls have put the SNP in the 45% to 50% range with the other two at 41%, like the previous seven or eight. Sub-polls are unreliable, of course, but when several start to tell the same story, I suspect we’re onto something, don’t you?

For YouGov/Times with 158 adult Scots on 10^th – 11^th April 2019, we get:

• Conservatives 22%
• Labour 16%
• Lib Dems 7%
• SNP 48%
• UKIP 1%
• Green 2%
• Brexit 2%
• CHUKA 0%

Once more we’re in wipe-out zone for all the others and, with the Greens, support for pro-independence parties at 50%. Not quite as sunny as in Leith though?

For the EU elections, we get:

• Conservatives 12%
• Labour 11%
• Lib Dems 7%
• SNP 49%
• UKIP 5%
• Green 3%
• Brexit 8%
• CHUKA 3%

 

With regard to concern about crime, sadly for the Scottish media, we get:

• London 38
• South 31
• Midlands/Wales 27
• North 30
• Scotland 24

And on housing, again sadly for the Scottish media, we get:

• London 29
• South 20
• Midlands/Wales 13
• North 13
• Scotland 12

 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/12/voting-intention-conservatives-28-labour-32-10-11-

Scots happier with their housing and less afraid of crime?

Scottish Government getting on with its day job on crime and housing?

 

 

It was the headline story for a grateful Reporting Scotland and all over the press:

Brought to you via Freedom of Information by those little ferrets at the Labour branch and disseminated seamlessly by the state broadcaster and the supporting cast in the press, a new crisis!

Here’s how the Hootsman leader, in a classic self-parody of a comment packed with fibs, from ‘Angry of Morningside’, put it:

‘New figures show 349 police cars broke down last year – almost one for every day of the year. A police car in such a poor state of repair that it could be illegal seems almost like an icon of the state of our public services. Missed NHS waiting time targets, difficulties getting a GP appointment, teacher shortages and low morale, and problems with a myriad of council services – from bin collections to social care – have become a fact of life for too many Scots. If a ramshackle police car catches fire – as one vehicle did in recent weeks – then how will the officer inside be able to come to our aid in time of need? If a car’s dodgy gearstick requires the driver to keep their hand on it at all times, it’s probably unlikely that any pursuit of a criminal will be successful.’

How bad is it?

Police Scotland has 1 663 vehicles and with 96% of them on the roads daily – 1 596. These are on the roads every day so that’s 582 540 car days in a year. There were 349 breakdowns. That’s 0.06%.

Also, readers will be delighted to see that Police Scotland’s Fleet Departments won the award for Outstanding Cost Control, at the high-profile fleet News Awards ceremony in London.

https://www.scotland.police.uk/access-to-information/freedom-of-information/fleet-information

 

The Ferret original report

This Herald report funded by Ferret contributors then feeds the Herald

I’ve been making a small monthly payment to fact-checking agencies, The Ferret, in Scotland, and The Canary, in England. For some time now I’ve been worrying about the Ferret’s agenda or perhaps that of some of its team. I should point out that I welcome much of what they have done. While, I don’t always dispute the accuracy of what they uncover, the choices they make about what to investigate and how to headline the report has resulted in them forming part of the media undermining the independence movement of by attacking institutions such as NHSS and Police Scotland and, so by proxy, the SNP/Scottish Government.

The above piece’s headline today, by Billy Briggs, has all the features of a Daily Mail hatchet job. Here is another from Mr Briggs:

Regardless of whether the report goes on to contextualise the data, the damage has been done.

I almost wrote about the Ferret in February when I saw this:

I haven’t read it in full. I don’t need to. That this ‘tax’ if implemented by a Labour or Conservative or Lib Dem council, is an SNP tax in any way, is preposterous.

The following is simply a classic tabloid SNPbad headline:

This below is no doubt technically accurate but the decision to investigate and to report is ideological. How comparatively well-staffed is Police Scotland? is the story of relevance for the people of Scotland:

Similarly, this may well be true but the decision to investigate and to report on a very small number of offences distorts the overall picture of a very-low and comparatively, extremely low, level of race-related crime in Scotland.

Finally, this is deeply puzzling.

As I understand it, it would be the decision to ban landfill that would lead to waste being dumped at cost in England. How can failing to ban it and thus dumping the waste in Scotland have any effect on England? See this:

I’m not going to re-subscribe to see the full text so maybe there’s some clever twist not apparent in the apparently stupid headline because, once more the damage is done.

Finally, the Ferret team seem to have the tacit approval of BBC Scotland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/collegeofjournalism/entries/00be39c1-f97b-4922-9dd0-131dd4020013

Readers of the blog were uneasy about the BBC endorsement. I’d have thought they would want to keep a distance from the state broadcaster, surely a likely target at some point. Mind you, founding member, Peter Geoghegan, is a regular with Gordon Brewer.

So, no more ferrets up my trousers. What’s that cute whistling sound?