SNP support averaging 46% in last 9 Westminster sub-polls

 

Pollster Month From To Sample SNP Con Lab
YouGov M 3 4 187 41 29 14
Opinuum M 13 15 110 51 25 8
YouGov M 14 15 157 38 22 11
Ipsos MORI M 15 19 91 50 15 16
Opinuum M 20 22 118 46 26 17
YouGov M 24 25 181 45 17 18
Opinuum M 28 29 114 45 25 26
YouGov A 2 3 152 48 20 18
YouGov A 10 11 158 48 22 16
Totals 1268
Averages 45.8 25.5 15

These figures suggest a trend diverging from a long period with support consistent around 41% after recovering from sub-40% figures before that. Sub-polls are of course unreliable due to their very small size but these 9 collectively have sampled nearly 1 300 Scots. The message is clear for Labour supporters in terms of an alternative with similar social values. For supporters of independence, the message is clear – concentrate your fire on the Tories. Some of those figures pushing 30% for them are frankly disturbing.

Note: I have not, for obvious reasons, included those polls with no Scotland data sub-set released or the Hanbury poll (5-8 April) putting the SNP at 33% because it is an extreme outlier from the clear trend for all three parties. See this for more on Hanbury:

Evidence of biased sampling to reduce SNP support by ‘secretive’pollster?

Sources at:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

 

Advertisements

One thought on “SNP support averaging 46% in last 9 Westminster sub-polls

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s